Dem
51
GOP
49
Did we ever mention that in politics, 2 weeks is a very long time? The New Hampshire primary is just under 2 weeks from now and a new University of New Hampshire poll has Donald Trump's lead down to 7 points. Trump has 39%, Nikki Haley has 32%, and Chris Christie has 12%. On the other hand, a Suffolk University poll has Trump at 46%, Haley at 27%, and Christie at 12%. Averaging the two, Trump is only 13 points ahead and Haley is clearly rising. It is possible that the endorsement of Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) has helped Haley. Probably Charles Koch's millions didn't hurt either.
Christie has vowed to stay in. However, the UNH poll showed that among the Christie voters, 65% would go to Haley if Christie dropped out. That would add 8 points to Haley and 4 to Trump, narrowing the gap to within the margin of error. If Christie's goal is to stop Trump, the obvious move is to drop out, endorse Haley, and campaign for her. But apparently his ego is too big for that. He'd rather get 12% and have Trump win than be hailed as the guy who made the tough decision that took down Trump (well, in one small state). On the other hand, once the New Hampshire voters see these poll numbers, Christie's voters may make that decision for him.
On the Democratic side, 69% of likely Democratic voters plan to write in Joe Biden, 7% plan to vote for Rep. Dean Phillips (DFL-MN), who is on the ballot, and 6% plan to vote for Marianne Williamson, who is also on the ballot.
Also noteworthy is that the Suffolk poll ran a general-election race with Trump, Biden, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Biden got 42%, Trump got 34%, and Kennedy got 8%. (V)