Dem
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GOP
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Activist groups all over the country are working on getting measures about abortion on the ballot. Most of them are pro-choice, but a few are against it. In Florida, a pro-choice group has collected more than enough verified signatures to qualify for the Nov. 2024 ballot. The measure reads in part: "No law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient's health, as determined by the patient's healthcare provider." Other Florida laws define "viability" as 24 weeks into pregnancy. However, a current Florida law bans abortions after week 6 of pregnancy, a time when many women do not even realize they are pregnant. If the measure were to pass, it would be a gigantic slap in the face for Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), who signed the 6-week ban. Some Florida voters might not be so unhappy with that.
Is it a done deal? No, not at all. First of all, under Florida law, a measure must get 60% of the vote to pass. In many other states with similar measures, the vote was in the mid-to-high 50s, but not 60%. In Ohio, Issue 1 got 57%. That was enough in Ohio. In Kansas, a measure to ban most abortions was defeated with 59% voting against the abortion ban. This is somewhat different from an affirmative measure guaranteeing that abortion is legal, but it still didn't hit 60%. Will the measure in Florida hit 60%? We don't know.
In fact, we don't even know if it will be on the ballot. Florida's AG, Ashley Moody (R), doesn't like it and doesn't give a hoot what the people of Florida want or what the Florida laws say. She doesn't want abortions to happen in her state, so she has filed a case with the state Supreme Court to keep the measure off the ballot, despite the secretary of state having announced that a sufficient number of valid signatures were filed and all the other requirements were met. She will argue that the measure does not define "viability" (because other Florida laws do that) and it also doesn't define "health-care provider." Would a manicurist count? A podiatrist? A yoga instructor? A psychologist? A pharmacist? A dentist? A speech pathologist? A sex therapist? The bill could have specified that a health-care provider is an M.D., physician's assistant, nurse practitioner, or midwife, but the people who formulated the measure wanted to keep it broad since some people may get their health care from people with other job titles. Moody also says the measure doesn't specify whether "protect the patient's health" means physical health, mental health, or both.
The state Supreme Court is likely to take up the measure, although the timing is unclear. It could rule that the wording is fine and Moody should go back to her real job of catching crooks, not mucking around with ballot initiatives. It could rule that the wording is too vague and kill the measure outright. It could also choose a course between these and order the group that proposed the measure to add some definitions to it, ask the Court if they are all right, and then approve it as modified.
The Florida initiative is not the only abortion-related case in the courts. The U.S. Supreme Court will soon hold hearings in a case from Texas in which an anti-abortion judge restricted the use of mifepristone, which is used in the majority of abortions. If the Supreme Court upholds that decision, the firestorm will be as big as after the Dobbs decision. The decision is expected in June, just in time for the national conventions. (V)