Jan.05

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Haley on the Rise: Will Lightning Strike in New Hampshire?

There's a new poll of New Hampshire out from American Research Group (ARG) that has lots of people sitting up and taking notice. According to their results, the race in the Granite State is a statistical dead heat (±4% margin of error):

Haley and Trump are both up 4% since the same poll in December; 3 of those 8 points came out of Christie's hide, 1 each from DeSantis and Ramaswamy, while the other 3 came from undecideds who finally made a decision.

Let us now run through the cautions: (1) It's only one poll, (2) It's a pretty small sample size of 600, (3) ARG is a mediocre pollster and (4) There's still plenty of time for things to change.

The primary reason we pass this poll along is not that we think it is meaningful. No, it's because it allows us a chance to review the situation in the first three states to cast ballots. What we mean by that is that it's at least possible that Haley (or some other non-Trump candidate) could win one (or more) of the opening trio. It's not likely, but it's definitely possible. The important thing to keep in mind is that those (hypothetical) victories will be discussed ad infinitum, because it will be the first serious presidential election news of the cycle. But those victories will mean virtually nothing. To wit:

1. Iowa: Iowa, of course, is a caucus state. That means that retail campaigning can have an outsized impact, so too can having a small but particularly dedicated cadre of loyalists. There's also a lot of potential for externalities to play a role; there have been recent Iowa caucuses where results were meaningfully affected by inclement weather in some parts of the state, and by computer glitches. Iowa also has a non-representative demographic profile (lots of evangelicals), but that's not likely to wonkify the results in 2024, as the demographic profile plays to Trump's strengths more than those of his (sorta) rivals.
   
   
2. New Hampshire: New Hampshire is far and away Haley's best chance for a win. Whereas the demographics of Iowa are Trumpy, the demographics of the Granite State are definitely not. Many Republicans in New Hampshire are latter-day-Rockefeller-Republican types—educated, urban, well-to-do, socially moderate-to-liberal, etc. On top of that, the state has a semi-open primary, which means independents can vote on either side of the aisle. And if you look at ARG's numbers, as well as the crosstabs in other polls of the state, you can see that the independents are really the ones keeping Haley in the fight. In other words, she's getting a good chunk of the Republican votes, and she's leading Trump among independents.
   
   
3. South Carolina: Of the early trio, South Carolina has far and away the best track record of backing the eventual Republican nominee. It's too big to be won with retail politics and skilled ground game and, more importantly, it's a Southern state. Soon after the Palmetto State votes, a whole bunch of other Southern states will vote. And guess what? Southern state #1 tends to be a pretty good bellwether for Southern states #2 through #15. Any Republican who wins the South is pretty much home free.
   
   In fact, since South Carolina took up its position as the third state to cast ballots (in 1980), it has given its support to the eventual nominee every single time, but for one occasion. That occasion was in 2012, where Newt Gingrich got the nod over Mitt Romney. In other words, South Carolinians have at least a little bit of a soft spot for native or near-native sons and daughters. You know, like Nikki Haley. Oh, and South Carolina is also an open primary state, so Democrats who might like to try to embarrass Trump could choose to participate in the GOP primary rather than the Democratic one. Some state legislators want to change this, but those efforts have not come to fruition.

Again, the point is that there's a path in each of these three states for a non-Trump candidate to win. In some cases, the path is very narrow, and in others it's a little wider. But even if Haley, or some other candidate, pulls off a miracle, it doesn't mean a thing until they can repeat that success in several, more typical, states. Also, don't forget that most Republican primaries are winner-take-all, so even if Haley's "momentum" gets her up to 40% of the GOP primary vote, well, that and $6 will get her a venti caramel frappucino with extra caramel and extra whipped cream in most states. Or, perhaps more usefully, a two egg breakfast at Waffle House. (Z)