Dem
51
GOP
49
In the FiveThirtyEight polling average, Nikki Haley has now surpassed Ron DeSantis and is in second place nationally for the GOP presidential nomination. This is the first time she has been ahead of DeSantis in this average. Haley is also ahead of DeSantis nationally in The Hill's average and is statistically tied with DeSantis in the RealClearPolitics' polling average. Of course, when new polls come in following her inability to figure out what the hell caused the Civil War, that could change.
If Haley does manage to come in a clear second in most states, that raises the question of whether Trump will consider her as his running mate. Being a serious vote-getter does have its advantages. On the other hand, Trump has to consider whether his voters will be able to stomach an "uppity" woman of color, especially one who has said unkind things about him. And if his former campaign chief, Corey Lewandowski, were to tell him at great length about all the admirable qualities Gov. Kristi Noem (R-SD) has, he might decide that she was a better choice.
In other polling news, RealClearPolling now has Trump at 62.7%, with Haley indeed second and DeSantis third (by 0.1%). Trump's lead is 51.7%. It's tough to blow a 50+% lead in a couple of months. This enormous lead also means that even if everyone except Haley drops out, and all the non-Trump voters go for Haley, she still won't be anywhere near Trump's percentage.
On the other hand, in Haley's favor is that she is now bringing in big time money. She just announced that her haul for Q4 2023 was $24 million, up from $11 million in Q3 and $7 million in Q2. In total, since she announced her run, she has raised $50 million from 180,000 donors. She had 83,000 new donors in Q4. And this is all hard money, separate from the millions the Koch network is going to spend to support her, independent of her campaign. (V)