Jan.02

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Questions for 2024

A couple of weeks ago, we had a list of 10 questions—known unknowns—that will shape the 2024 election. NPR had the same idea, so we thought we would pass their list along:

1. Do perceptions of the economy improve?
2. Does abortion retain its salience?
3. How do the situations in Ukraine and Israel change?
4. Do younger voters rally to Biden's side despite misgivings—or not?
5. Do third-party candidates gain real traction and become the 2024 wild card?
6. Can Haley or DeSantis actually give Trump a run—or does Trump wrap up the primary quickly?
7. Do Trump's trials wind up mattering—if not for Republican primary voters but for persuadable ones in a general election?
8. How will attrition among election officials affect vote counting in states?
9. Do democratic institutions again hold?
10. Which winds up mattering more: frustrations with how Biden is doing his job (and his age), or the negative views of Trump?

Some overlap with our list, but some stuff we didn't have. That tells you there are a LOT of known unknowns. Add to that the unknown unknowns, and it's going to be a wild year. (Z)