Jan.01

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

The Rules for Primary Elections May Change in Some States

Different states have different rules about who can participate in primary elections. Eight states have closed primaries, where only registered Democrats can vote in Democratic primaries and only registered Republicans can vote in Republican primaries. Sixteen states have open primaries, in which each voter can ask the poll worker for either a Democratic or a Republican ballot. Some other states are semi-open, meaning that independents can vote in either primary. California and Alaska each have an all-party primary, with the top two or four candidates, respectively, advancing to the general election. However, people in a number of states are working on changing the rules, as follows:

• Arizona: Arizona currently has closed primaries. This means that the 1.5 million independents can't vote in the primaries unless they request a partisan ballot in advance. A ballot initiative would create an all-party primary with the top candidates advancing to a ranked-choice general election. The number of candidates, n, advancing would be set by the legislature unless it delegated that power to the secretary of state. The only restriction is that it can't be more than five. This is basically the Alaska system; there n = 4. If it passes, then the coldest state and the hottest state would use the same primary system.
  
  
• Idaho: Idaho has 270,000 independents who can't vote in the state's primaries. A group called Idahoans for Open Primaries wants to clone the Alaska system exactly: an all-party primary in which everyone can vote followed by a top-four general election using ranked-choice voting. The system will not apply to presidential elections, however, nor to nonpartisan offices like city councils and school boards. Write-in votes will be allowed in both the primaries and general election. The group already has 50,000 of the 63,000 signatures needed to get it on the ballot and have until May 1 to get the rest. There is an excellent chance they will make it. Even in a red state like Idaho this matters. If the amendment passes, it may be possible for a moderate Republican to get elected to the Senate with the help of second-choice Democratic votes.
  
  
• Nevada: Nevada's Constitution requires amendments to be approved twice, in different elections. An amendment to open primaries was approved in 2022. If it is approved again in 2024, the Nevada's 627,000 independents will be allowed to vote in all-party primaries, again with ranked-choice voting in the general election.
  
  
• Ohio: Ohio is going in the opposite direction. It is trying to make voting in primaries more difficult. Not only will the bill the legislature is working on keep the closed primaries, but it would require voters to register with a party a year in advance. This would, for example, prevent Democrats who now know that the Democratic presidential primary will be boring from suddenly switching parties and voting in the Republican primary with the intent of voting for the weakest candidate, a technique technically known as ratf**king.
  
  
• Oregon: The idea here, like in Arizona and Idaho, is to have an all-party open primary for all offices other than president. The group behind this, the All Oregon Votes Committee, has only a few thousand signatures so far. It needs 160,000 valid signatures to qualify for the ballot, so it has a ways to go.
  
  
• Pennsylvania: Legislators are working on two bills that would keep the current partisan primaries, but allow independents to vote in them. There are over 1 million independents in Pennsylvania. The bills would enfranchise them in primary elections.
  

There are several different directions represented here, but the Alaska system seems to be catching on. Who knew that Alaska was a trendsetter? If half a dozen states adopt it and it works well, there is likely to be a mass movement in many states in the same direction. (V)