Dem
51
GOP
49
No, we don't mean the 2020 presidential election. That is long over. What we mean is the 2020 redistricting process. That is normally completed as soon as the new census data is in. But in no fewer than three states, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and New York, it is still on the front burner.
First, in Wisconsin, earlier this week Gov. Tony Evers (D-WI) signed a bill creating a new legislative map after the Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled the old gerrymandered map unconstitutional. The state Senate is massively gerrymandered, with 22 Republicans, 10 Democrats, and 1 vacancy. The Assembly is almost as bad, with 64 Republicans and 35 Democrats. With a bit of luck, and the new maps in place, the Democrats could win both chambers in November. Meanwhile, it's only a matter of time until the state Supreme Court hears a challenge to the congressional maps, which are also massively gerrymandered. If that case is completed in time, a 6R, 2D House delegation could potentially become a 6D, 2R delegation, in a blue wave.
The new legislative map in Wisconsin is due to the liberals getting a majority in the state Supreme Court. In North Carolina, it went the other way, with the Republicans getting the Supreme Court majority, allowing them to gerrymander the hell out of the maps. The current congressional delegation is 7D, 7R, but with the new map, Republicans will probably win 10, 11, maybe even 12 seats. Will Democrats sue? They might.
Now on to New York. Yesterday, the state legislature approved a new map that will probably flip at least one House seat, in addition to the NY-03 seat that Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY) flipped on his own 2 weeks ago. The newly flippable seat is NY-22 in central New York, currently occupied by Rep. Brandon Williams (R-NY). The old district was D+1. The new one was won by Joe Biden by 12 points in 2020. The Republicans can yell "Let's go Brandon" all they want, but Brandon is not going to be in the House next year. The new map also makes it easier for Suozzi to get reelected in November. Several of the competitive districts in Westchester and Long Island are still competitive, but the map is not as aggressive as Republicans feared. Still, half a dozen districts are genuinely in play. That includes these Republican-held districts: Anthony D'Esposito's NY-04 (D+5) Mike Lawler's NY-17 (D+3), Marc Molinaro's NY-19 (EVEN), Nick LaLota's NY-01 (R+3), Andrew Garbarino's NY-02 (R+3), and Nicole Malliotakis' NY-11 (R+6). Democrats could flip all of these and Williams' district as well, for a net gain of seven seats, but it would take a strong blue wave to do it. (V)