Feb.27

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Looking Forward to 2024, Part III: Reader Predictions, Joe Biden Edition

We had two predictions pieces in January:

• Looking Forward to 2024, Part I: Pundit Predictions
• Looking Forward to 2024, Part II: Our Predictions

It took us a good, long time to go through the readers' predictions, but we've done it now. So, we shall reveal the remaining predictions in the next couple of weeks, starting with 10 predictions about Joe Biden today. As a reminder, we've asked a panel to judge the predictions; the less likely they collectively think a prediction is to come to pass, the more bonus points it's worth. A prediction that they deem 100% likely to happen (i.e., guaranteed) will get 0 bonus points if and when it comes to pass. A prediction they deem 0% likely to happen (i.e., absolutely impossible) will get 100 bonus points if and when it comes to pass. And so forth.

With that out of the way, here are the predictions for Biden:

1. K.F.S. in Lorton, VA: Pete Buttigieg will play a large role in campaigning for Joe Biden's reelection, portending a promotion in the cabinet to State, Defense, CIA or DNI. (Potential Bonus Points: 50)
   
   
2. S.H. in Broken Arrow, OK: Biden will get rough with Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) in some manner, either by federalizing the State's National Guard/Air National Guard or finding some other way to slap the Texas Governor in the mouth politically and/or financially. (Potential Bonus Points: 52)
   
   
3. B.H. in Randolph, NJ: Biden will decide to withdraw from the election, having come to the decision that he cannot win because of the discord in the Democratic Party arising from the Mideast war. (Potential Bonus Points: 92)
   
   
4. R.M. in Binghamton, NY: George W. Bush will endorse Biden for president. (Potential Bonus Points: 69)
   
   
5. C.O. in East Lansing, MI: Biden will continue to improve the U.S.'s relationship with China, making agreements that anger the progressive wing of his party, but ultimately getting the support of most business leaders. His crowning achievement will be getting China to distance itself from Russia, resulting in Russia finally ending the war in Ukraine. (Potential Bonus Points: 70)
   
   
6. G.S. in New Plymouth, Taranaki, New Zealand: Biden will make at least three gaffes that give rise to further questions about his age and mental state, but there will be little impact on the polls overall. (Potential Bonus Points: 23)
   
   
7. P.H. in Mayo, FL: Biden will fill a surprise sudden vacancy on the Supreme Court before the year is out. (Potential Bonus Points: 64)
   
   
8. T.B. in Leon County, FL: Biden will win reelection with a popular vote margin in excess of 9.5% over the Republican candidate(s) (something like 52%-42%). (Potential Bonus Points: 53)
   
   
9. A.G. in Scranton, PA: Taylor Swift will appear at the Democratic National Convention, both to perform and to generate a few million young voters for the eventual Democratic presidential nominee—who, suffice it to say, is about as exciting to her fan base as a bowl of unflavored ice milk (Maude Flanders' preferred flavor) is to anyone who enjoys a bowl of real mint chocolate chip ice cream. (Potential Bonus Points: 55)
   
   
10. O.B. in Santa Monica, CA: Biden's State of the Union will be very well received, and at least two New York Times columnists will describe it as just the thing he needed in order to reboot his campaign. (Potential Bonus Points: 29)

Note that it really is just a coincidence that we're running the mint-chip-ice-cream prediction on the same day Biden ordered and ate mint chip ice cream on national TV. We compiled the predictions roughly 24 hours before he appeared on Late Night with Seth Meyers.

Anyhow, if the readers hit the bullseye 10 times, then they'll earn 1,557 points for Biden predictions. Tomorrow, it will be reader predictions for Donald Trump. (Z)