Dem
51
GOP
49
The race to be the definitive replacement for the late Dianne Feinstein in the Senate is in the home stretch. If the polls are even roughly correct, the battle for first place is over and has been won by Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA). The real battle now is between Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) and former baseball player Steve Garvey (R) for second place and a slot on the November ballot. In the final debate, with four participants, Porter's strategy was to get under Schiff's skin and get him annoyed. She may have achieved that with her performance in the hour-long debate.
Schiff's strategy the past few weeks has been to go whole hog on ratf**king. He has been running ads telling Californians that they shouldn't vote for Garvey because he is a true conservative. His goal is to drive up Republican turnout and have Garvey come in second. Porter understands this perfectly and, in the previous debates, has targeted Garvey. This time she went after Schiff, attacking him for not voting for House bills that could have provided childcare costs or provided renters with rent assistance. He deflected those easily. Eventually she tried something else: his taking money from people in industries Democrats hate, including oil, drug, and financial companies. He finally engaged her, accusing her of taking money from those industries as well.
One issue that came up and is very sensitive is the border. Joe Biden is desperate for some kind of bill and will sign pretty much anything that can get through Congress. On the other hand, Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) opposes all the bills as giveaways to the Republicans without getting much in return. Schiff hadn't taken a position until the debate. Would he back Biden or the senior California senator? On stage he decided to throw in with Padilla and oppose the bill. He said: "I would support a package that had a comprehensive immigration reform. This was not that." That is probably the more popular position for a Democrat in a California primary. On the other hand, Rep. Barbara Lee (D), Porter, and Garvey all also opposed the bill, so there is no daylight between any of them. You can't make an election issue out of a bill that both of you oppose. "I hate the bill more than you hate the bill" is not a great campaign slogan.
Garvey knows that most of what the national Republicans want won't fly in California, so he simply decided to go heavy on platitudes and light on specifics. For example, he said America is "the torchbearer for democracy." When he was asked to square that with his support for Donald Trump, he simply said: "As your senator, I will do everything to maintain your security." That response prompted Porter to try to weaken him in the eyes of Republican voters by making him look squishy on Trump. She even told the Republicans watching that another Republican in the race, Eric Early, was Trumpier than Garvey. We doubt if many Republicans are going to take voting advice from a progressive Democrat like Porter, though. The primary is the week after next, on Super Tuesday, March 5. (V)