Dem
51
GOP
49
There are many factors that will affect the elections, but one that is always in the mix is the economy. Right now, many people do not realize how good it actually is, at least according to traditional measures. Inflation has been tamed and unemployment is at a historical low. To some extent, Donald Trump can actually claim some of the credit since he appointed the magician who pulled off this amazing trick, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. But people tend to credit or blame the sitting president for the economy, no matter what it is doing.
One other measure of how well the economy is doing is the S&P 500 index. On Friday, it closed above 5,000 for the first time in history. The NASDAQ is also at a record high. The Dow Jones index is almost at a record high, which was set on Feb. 2. While Joe Biden had relatively little to do with this, if he is smart he will take credit for it. Specifically, he should tell people who have a 401(k) plan, an IRA, or mutual funds to take a good look at their brokerage statements. They are likely to be pleased with how much their assets have gone up. Happy people tend not to want to "throw the bums out." Here is the S&P 500 since Dec 1, 1984. It closed at 3799 on Jan. 19, 2021 and at 5027 on Friday. That is a gain of 1228 points, or 32% on Biden's watch. Those people with some kind of retirement plan invested in the stock market might be interested in hearing that. Here is the S&P 500.
The place to hype this record is in the suburbs, where people are much more likely to own stocks in one form or another than in rural areas or in inner cities. And the suburbs are precisely where most of the swing voters live. Many of these people are socially liberal but fiscally conservative. While they like low taxes, they also like having their stocks go up. If the market continues to go up all year, it could help Biden and make them forget (or ignore) Robert Hur's report saying that he has a poor memory. (V)