Feb.02

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Q4 Fundraising: Who's the King?

The fundraising numbers for the fourth quarter of 2023—actually, technically, they cover October 1, 2023, to January 24, 2024—are in. Here's a rundown of the most interesting storylines:

• Joe Biden: As we have noted previously, the sitting president is not wanting for cash right now: He's got $117 million in the bank. Part of that is because he's got a robust fundraising operation. Part of it is because while he spent more in Q4 than in the rest of 2023 combined, he's still not spending all that much.
  
  
• Donald Trump: The former president, by contrast, is not sitting quite so pretty, primarily because he is spending so much on legal bills. His actual campaign brought in $19.1 million and spent $23.5 million, leaving $33 million in the bank. The Save America PAC, which is his main PAC, raised $6.6 million, and clawed back $30 million it had transferred to another PAC, but spent $35.2 million, of which $25 million was on legal fees. The PAC is down to $5 million in the bank. Meanwhile, Trump's other PAC, MAGA PAC, got a $5.9 million transfer from the Save America PAC and burned through it all, including $4 million in legal fees. MAGA PAC is down to about $500,000 in the bank. Needless to say, this is not sustainable. Either income has to increase, or outlays have to decrease, or both. It is possible that the Team Trump cash flow will increase dramatically in campaign season, but it's not guaranteed, since the former president already hits up supporters many times per day.
  
  
• Nikki Haley: The secret of Nikki Haley's "success," such as it is, is financial discipline. Her campaign raised $17.3 million and spent $14.3 million. And, of course, there are PACs out there (like the Koch-run Americans for Prosperity Action) that are covering some costs. This said, Haley's fundraising is telling the same story that her vote totals are: There's little rank-and-file enthusiasm for her campaign. Only $10 million of her haul came from small donors (people who gave $200 or less). That is not good for someone who presumes to be a candidate for office in 50 states and D.C.
  
  
• Montana Senate: Tim Sheehy, who is the anointed candidate of the Republican establishment, raised $2.1 million. That is a fortune in Montana, and may give Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) pause as he considers jumping in. Meanwhile, the PAC organized to oppose Sheehy, Last Best Place PAC, brought in $2.1 million. Every cent of that came from Senate Majority PAC, which is run by the Democratic Party.
  
  
• California Senate: Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) is lapping the field. He brought in $6.3 million, as compared to $3.4 million for Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) and about $1 million for Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA). Meanwhile, the leading Republican in the race, former baseball player Steve Garvey, raised $600,000. In some states, that would be a pretty good haul, especially for a rookie. In California, it's dismal.
  
  In fact, the candidate who is spending the most on pro-Garvey commercials is actually... Schiff. The ads are not overtly pro-Garvey, in that they argue that Schiff is the better candidate because, unlike Garvey, he's not a true conservative who voted for Donald Trump twice. But the clear purpose of the ads is to communicate to Republican voters that Garvey is a true conservative who voted for Donald Trump twice. This subtle ratfu**ing makes very clear something we've written before: Schiff would much prefer to face Garvey in the general, since that would make the Democrat a shoo-in to win the election, even if he does not campaign.
  
  
• New Jersey Senate: First Lady Tammy Murphy (D) raised $3.2 million, as compared to $1.7 million for Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ). We are not experts in New Jersey politics, but we doubt that differential is especially meaningful, since Murphy undoubtedly tapped her husband's fundraising network. The polls continue to say that Kim is the runaway favorite. Meanwhile, Sen. Bob Menendez raised just $16,000, nearly all of which he had to refund. Sorry, Mr. Senator, but the writing is on the wall. Perhaps you would be able to read it better if it was in hieroglyphics?
  
  
• NY-03: In his effort to replace "George Santos," Tom Suozzi (D) raised $4.5 million, a figure that left the $1.3 million raised by Mazi Pilip (R?) in the dust. And he's not being shy about spending that loot; he burned through $2.4 million to $714,000 for Pilip. And yet, if you do the math you see that despite tripling her outlay, Suozzi has triple the money in the bank, $2.2 million, to $629,000. We see no way to interpret this other than as a sign that he's the solid favorite heading into the special election on Feb. 13.

And that's the fundraising news for now. Items like this one will become more frequent, as many candidates will be subject to monthly, rather than quarterly, reporting now that it's an election year. (Z)