Dem
51
GOP
49
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) hasn't even brought the articles of impeachment against Alejandro Mayorkas to the floor, and yet his margin of error has already grown (even more) paper-thin. Throughout the process, the unpredictable Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO) suggested he was probably on board with the plan. Yesterday, however, he changed course and announced that he's a "solid no" on impeachment. "I've talked to constitutional experts on the outside. I've talked to former members about the impact that this would have in the future," Buck explained. "The people I'm talking to... agree that this just isn't an impeachable offense."
Normally, one rebellious member—especially when it's the inscrutable Buck—is not newsworthy. But it is when Johnson has almost no margin for error. At the moment, assuming the Democrats are all present and vote the party line (both are safe assumptions), then with Buck they will have 214 votes. Johnson will have 218 votes (again, assuming all his members are present). In other words, the Speaker can afford one more defection. If there are two more, then it's 216-216.
And life could get a little harder should the Speaker wait more than a week to pull the trigger. If Tom Suozzi wins the special election to replace "George Santos" on Feb. 13, then it will be 218R, 215D. It would remain the case that Johnson could survive one defection, and that two would sink him. However, if the margin is only three members, as opposed to four, it means there is less room to give some Republican members (e.g., some of the Biden 17) permission to vote "present."
In the end, a sizable number of Republican members don't want to vote on this at all. They don't want to vote for impeachment and open themselves up to attacks in the general election that they participated in undemocratic shenanigans. On the other hand, they don't want to vote against impeachment and open themselves up to attacks in the primaries that they don't take border security seriously. Perhaps Johnson will bow to this reality. On the other hand, the Freedom Caucusers really want to impeach someone... anyone. And they are the group that is more than willing to bring a motion to vacate the chair. Times like these are when a speaker earns that extra $4,000/month that is over and above the salary of a regular member. (Z)