Dem
51
GOP
49
On Feb. 13, a special election to replace "George Santos" will be held in NY-03 on Long Island. The district leans slightly Democratic, with a PVI of D+2 (though Joe Biden won it by 8 points in 2020). The Democrat is former representative Tom Suozzi, who sat in that seat until he decided he preferred being governor to being a representative. That didn't work out so well, so now he wants his old job back. The Republican candidate, Ethiopian-born Mazi Pilip, is a veteran—of the Israeli Defense Forces. She is also a member of the Nassau County legislature. Pilip is a mother of seven and a registered Democrat. She doesn't like talking to the media, so nobody has a clue what her motivation is or what she would do in Congress.
The race is already a test case for November. Democrats are attacking Pilip on abortion and tying her to MAGAworld. This is a practice run for November when they are planning to do the same thing if it works in NY-03. But Suozzi has also spent $250,000 on ads where he touts his support for greater border security. This is a recognition that in the 2022 House races in New York, Republicans ran on their plans to stop immigration and deal harshly with criminals.
This race is important not only because the Republicans' majority in the House now is so precarious, but NY-03 is the prototype of the suburban swing district Democrats must win in November to capture the House. If Suozzi loses, Democrats will cry enough tears in their wine to turn it into grape juice. It will also emphasize Biden's overall weakness and give hope to the five Republicans who flipped Democratic seats in 2022. On the other hand, a Suozzi win, especially if big, would show the (House) Democrats that Biden's low approval ratings won't drag them down and that abortion beats immigration as a top issue in suburban districts.
In any event, the results will be analyzed precinct by precinct for clues about how to campaign with every possible audience for the rest of the year. (V)