Dem
51
GOP
49
It's no secret that the Freedom Caucus is always angry with everyone, but now other groups are also angry with someone. Because Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-LA) margin is so small (3 wrong votes can derail a bill), all kinds of small groups suddenly have discovered they have veto power. Case in point: In the 2017 tax cut, Donald Trump stuck it to the high-tax blue states by limiting the tax deduction for state and local taxes (SALT) to $10,000. That hits California and New York much harder than it hits Texas and Florida. Take that, blue states.
But there is an oops! here. Five Republicans in swing districts in New York know the Democrats are going to hang the SALT deduction reduction around their necks and want the House to rescind the reductions. This puts them in opposition to MAGAworld, which wants to stick it to the blue states. The only problem for MAGAworld is that those five votes are the difference between a bill passing and it failing. Just saying "tough luck" could be the difference between speaker Johnson and speaker Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) next January. The blue state Republicans fighting for their lives want the SALT deduction raised from $10,000 to $20,000 for a married couple.
To make their point, four of them voted against a procedural rule Johnson wanted passed. This definitely got Johnson's attention and a promise to negotiate with them. Then they switched their votes. What happens if the Freedom Caucus, which wants to stick it to the blue states, balks if the deduction is raised and the moderates balk if it is not raised?
Since the FC and other Republicans oppose increasing the SALT deduction, Johnson will need Democratic votes as well to get the bill passed. Turns out Democrats also have a wish list. Who knew? They want the child tax credit increased from $1,600 to $2,000. Most Republicans don't want this, but the House is so dysfunctional that no one remembers that you often have to make compromises to get bills passed. Everyone has forgotten that, but the Republicans' tiny majority and internal disarray require compromises to get anything done. This is where Johnson's leadership skills get tested.
In the end, Johnson was able to get the tax bill through the House on Wednesday night. It was a truly bipartisan result; 188 Democrats and 169 Republicans voted in favor and 23 Democrats and 47 Republicans voted against. There's an expansion of the child tax credit and of the low-income housing tax credit, as well as some tax cuts for businesses. No change to SALT, however. We shall see what, if anything, Johnson gave away to get most of his conference to play nice. Meanwhile, the real politicking will begin if and when there's a border bill (keep reading). (V)