Dem
51
GOP
49
Remember, Donald Trump's idea of winning is that he isn't convicted of a felony before the election. His trial for inciting an insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021, is nominally scheduled for March 4, but is very unlikely to happen then because the judge is waiting for the U.S. Court of Appeals for D.C. to rule on whether presidents are like kings and thus above the law. It's basically a yes/no question and shouldn't be that hard to decide. Still, it has now been 3 weeks since the court held oral hearings and still no decision. The longer they take, the better it is for Trump.
So what is taking the Appeals Court so long? The senior judge, Karen Henderson, is a George H.W. Bush appointee. She could assign herself the job of writing the opinion, as long as she is in the majority. Since she knows what Trump cares about is delay, not winning at this level (because SCOTUS is going to make the real decision), she could take weeks or even months to write it and the other two judges, who clearly don't believe Trump has immunity, can't force her to speed up.
Once there is a decision, Trump could ask for an en banc hearing, but Special Counsel Jack Smith may appeal directly to the Supreme Court on the grounds that it is the only Court that can really decide this question, so let's cut the Kabuki Theater and have the Supreme Court hear the case expeditiously.
But even if the Appeals Court finally makes up its mind and SCOTUS takes the case quickly, the timing of the decisions is important. Even with all the delays, there is still time for Trump to be stuck in Judge Tanya Chutkan's courtroom on trial before the Republican National Convention. If he is found guilty, this would put the RNC on the spot. Could it somehow block his nomination if he were a convicted felon by July 15? Maybe. But the chances of a conviction before the convention are growing smaller by the day, even if the trial begins in April or May.
Smith says that he will need about 2 months to present the evidence. Trump's defense team could take as long as it wants to argue his case. Of course, the judge doesn't have to allow every D.C. police officer to testify as to what he or she saw on Jan. 6. Chutkan might decide that giving the defense as much time as the prosecution was fair, which would result in a 4-month trial. If it began in mid-May, it would end in mid-September, just as voters were starting to pay attention. A conviction in September, just before early voting started, could be devastating, so Trump is desperately trying to delay the start of the trial at least until mid-summer. On the other hand, he would probably have to be in court every weekday, so no campaigning for him at the height of the campaign except on weekends. But until the courts get their acts together, Trump is safe. (V)