Dec.23

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Winners and Losers from the House Battle

Congress has voted to keep the National Christmas Tree illuminated, along with the rest of the government—for the time being. But that doesn't mean the problem is solved for good and we are back to where we were a month ago. No, the incident has definitely created winners and losers. Here is one list.

• Elon Musk: Co-president Elon Musk demonstrated his political muscle, and it didn't cost him even one of his 430 billion dollars. After Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) carefully negotiated a bipartisan and bicameral deal to kick the can down the road, Musk trashed it and it was gone. Not bad for a private citizen who has never held any public office. After the bill crashed and burned, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) demonstrated that she is fickle and is no longer swooning over the 78-year-old Donald Trump, but instead over the 53-year-old Musk. She tweeted: "I'd be open to supporting @elonmusk for Speaker of the House." She wasn't the only one. Musk won this round, but there will be more to come.
  
  
• Federal Employees: The thought of not getting paid this week probably dampened the spirits of many a federal worker, especially those who need this week's paycheck to pay next month's rent and buy food for the holidays. They are now spared.
  
  
• Farmers: Being a farmer is always tough. Either it doesn't rain enough or it rains too much. And rainmakers in Congress don't always produce rain when it is needed. Still, there was $10 billion in aid to farmers in the final bill.
  
  
• Victims of Disasters: There have been major hurricanes this year, especially that power couple Helene and Milton. Many people lost their houses and everything else. FEMA can help some of them, at least a little, but it was running out of money. The final bill appropriates $100 billion for disaster relief (but nothing for trying to mitigate climate change to prevent the next disaster).
  
  
• City of D.C.: The city of Washington, D.C. threw a Hail Mary pass and it was caught. The District got control of the RFK stadium. This paves the way for the Maryland Commanders to move from Landover, MD, to the District and become the Washington Commanders.
  

• Hakeem Jeffries: During the negotiations about the bill, House minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) made it clear that he did not want the bill to include an increase to the debt ceiling. He got what he wanted. This means when the debt ceiling is reached the potential breach, which would cause the stock market to collapse, will be on Donald Trump's watch, not Joe Biden's. On the other hand, 500 pages of Democratic Christmas tree ornaments that were in the original bill are now dead. Even things that should not be controversial, like banning revenge porn, got axed.
  
  
• Chip Roy: Rep. Charles ("Chip") Roy (R-TX) got tons of free PR, something he loves. He also outshone all the other members of the Freedom Caucus. He is now the star of Christmas. However, his stunts alienated Donald Trump, who will now try to find a primary opponent for Roy in his R+13 district. And Elon Musk will make sure that opponent has more money than Scrooge McDuck. It is hard to dislodge a sitting congressman, but now Roy has to at least worry about it a bit.
  

• Mike Johnson: Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) looked weak, and in Trumpworld, the weak are eaten for lunch. Johnson especially angered members of the Freedom Caucus. When the new House convenes, the partisan mix will probably be 215D, 219R, unless Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) changes his mind and is sworn in. When Johnson runs for speaker, he needs 218 votes, and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) is a hard "no." That means all it will take is one more Republican to sink Johnson. In the end, he might win simply because the Freedom Caucus doesn't have anyone who can get 100 votes, let alone 218, but Johnson will be embarrassed if it takes 15 ballots, like last time.
  
  
• PBM Reform Advocates: The role of Pharmacy Benefit Managers is very contentious. They are middlemen who help negotiate drug prices for health insurance companies—and take a nice piece of the pie for themselves. The original bill had reforms in it. Now they are gone and the PBMs are safe.
  
  
• Joe Biden: According to the one-president-at-a-time rule, Joe Biden is still president. Where was he during this crisis? Why didn't he invite the four congressional leaders to his office for marathon negotiating sessions? Why didn't he go on television saying that the parties need to work with each other to avoid Congress stealing Christmas? He looked very weak. He is still the president but hardly acted like it.
  
  
• Donald Trump: Thirty-eight Republicans voted against his wishes, in public, with the whole country watching. They openly defied him. Apparently they are not afraid of the Big Bad Wolf anymore. Presidents don't actually have any real power. All they can do is tell subordinates to do things and hope they obey. If they don't, he can replace them with new subordinates and hope they obey. But once members of Congress see that they can defy Trump and nothing happens (except the threat of a primary in 2 years), they are going to get bolder and try defying him more often now.
  

Is there more fallout? Keep reading. (V)