Dem
47
GOP
53
Sometimes, when a major-party presidential candidate loses, that's their farewell to politics. Think Michael Dukakis, Bob Dole or Al Gore. Sometimes, they're done running for office, but they reemerge in some non-elective position. Think Adlai Stevenson, Walter Mondale or John Kerry. And sometimes, they go away, lick their wounds, and then re-enter the arena. It's the Richard Nixon plan. Or, if you prefer, the Mitt Romney plan. And there is little doubt that it will also be the Kamala Harris plan.
It is hardly a surprise that the VP is not quite done with politics. She's still fairly young, at 60. She has a strong record of success, with a 4-1 record in elections. And in the 1, she only had 100 days to campaign, and yet made a pretty decent go of it. The presidential campaign also gave her connections to donors and political movers and shakers, not to mention massive name recognition. That's not the profile of someone who's going to pack it in, and spend the rest of their life serving on corporate boards and teaching university classes.
That said, Harris has a pretty big decision to make, as there are two potential brass rings that she might reach for. Or, perhaps more precisely, one brass ring and one golden ring. The golden ring, of course, is the presidency. If she jumps into the 2028 presidential race, she'd certainly be one of the frontrunners, and maybe even the favorite. However, there are at least three pretty serious obstacles that would be in her path. The first, of course, is that she'd have some pretty heavy-duty competition for the Democratic nod. The second is that there's a very real possibility that, correct or not, Democratic primary voters in 2028 will decide "we just can't run a woman." The third is that there's a very real possibility that, correct or not, Democratic primary voters will decide "we just can't run Kamala Harris again."
The brass ring, meanwhile, is the governorship of California. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) is term-limited, and thus far there's no clear-cut favorite to replace him. Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) and DHS Secretary Xavier Becerra are kicking the tires, and Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D-CA) is probably the current frontrunner, but none of them appear to be world-beaters. If Harris gets in, many of the other potential contenders have already made clear they'd drop out, and she would likely be able to steamroll the rest. Put another way, the general consensus is that the job is hers for the asking.
What is NOT on the table is taking a shot at both jobs. If Harris was to run for governor, and win, she'd take office just months before she'd have to start campaigning for president. Democratic operatives, donors, and voters would not take kindly to so obviously treating the governorship as nothing more than a way station. And if she serves one full term as governor, then her next possible presidential opportunity would be 2032, at best. She would be 68 by then, which means 76 at the end of two presidential terms. Voters just love septuagenarian presidential candidates. And if the Democrats win the White House in 2028, then it would almost certainly mean her next presidential shot would be 2036 (a.k.a. ages 72-80).
So, it's one or the other, but not both. If Harris' team thinks that a second presidential bid is viable, then that will be the choice. If it seems to be too big a mountain to climb, then it's the governorship. She's got about 9 months to decide. (Z)