Dec.17

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

In Congress: One Down, One Out (Maybe), and One... Who Knows?

There were several bits of interesting news out of the House of Representatives yesterday:

• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): The Old Guard, in the person of Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA; age 74), scored a victory over the New Guard, in the person of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (age 35). The two representatives are running to be ranking member on the House Oversight Committee, and the Steering and Policy Committee voted 34-27 in favor of Connolly. The entire Democratic caucus will vote today (most likely), and while the Steering and Policy Committee vote is just a recommendation, the caucus usually follows the Committee's recommendations.
  
  If AOC does not get the gig, there will be a few reasons for it. First, Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) favors Connolly. Pelosi may be a backbencher these days, and she may be in a hospital bed in Luxembourg right now, recovering from a hip replacement, but her reach... well, her reach extends across whole continents. Second, Ocasio-Cortez is very, very young for a high-profile committee assignment; there's certainly an element of "wait your turn." Third, the Representative has a history of backing primary challengers to sitting members; that has rubbed some members (like, say, the ones who were challenged) the wrong way. In view of this, AOC said she might change her approach in the future.
  
  
• Jared Moskowitz (D-FL): Donald Trump is looking for someone to lead FEMA in his incoming administration, and Moskowitz has emerged as the favorite. He's certainly qualified, in that he did the same job for the state of Florida for 2 years. He's also pretty Blue Doggy, having embraced the DOGE project and a few other Trumpy initiatives. He's also got a relationship with both Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and incoming Chief of Staff Susan Wiles.
  
  It is possible that Trump's game here is to flip a House seat, and to give Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) a little more breathing room. However, Moskowitz' district is D+5, so that's probably not a great bet. Similarly, it's possible that Trump just wants to create a temporary opening in the House, so as to partly counter the openings that will be created by the resignations of Elise Stefanik (R-NY), Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz (both R-FL). However, using a key job like this for a very short-term benefit doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
  
  Our guess—and we have no information here, just speculation—is that there are really two things going on here. First, Trump really wants to be thought of as someone who reinvented the Republican Party, bringing MAGA Democrats into the fold, and adding yet another semi-Democrat to his administration advances that goal. Second, FEMA is one of the places where Trump needs someone who is actually competent, and Moskowitz appears to be so.
  
  
• Victoria Spartz (R-IN): Yesterday, Spartz announced that she is not going to accept any committee assignments, she is going to stop attending meetings of the House Republican Conference, and that she will focus entirely on the DOGE effort until she sees "that Republican leadership in Congress is governing." She explained that "I do not need to be involved in circuses."
  
  Some observers are interpreting this as a sign that the cat-herding is about to get even more difficult for Mike Johnson. Maybe so, but let's take a wait-and-see approach before reaching any conclusions. Spartz is the most... mercurial member of the House Republican Conference. She "retired" last year, only to un-retire and run for reelection. During the most recent speaker elections, she voted for Johnson for several ballots, then voted against him for several ballots, then switched back to voting for him, without explanation for any of it. She's also known for having a hair-trigger temper, and has a turnover rate in her office that is four times the average. She and Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) are far and away the worst in this regard. The point is, one cannot make too many predictions based on the (often erratic) behavior of Victoria Spartz.

That's the latest from the lower chamber. In theory, there are only 2 days left before the members leave for the break. However, given that they don't have a budget, maybe that schedule will require some adjustment. (Z)