Dem
47
GOP
53
State legislative elections are deep in the weeds and rarely reported, except maybe on page 15 of newspapers in the state where the election happened. Nevertheless, since Congress will probably not be able to do much beyond budget matters in the next 2 years on account of the Freedom Caucus in the House and the filibuster in the Senate, state governments are increasingly important.
So, did anything happen to state governments on Nov. 5? Yes. Eighty-five state legislative chambers were on the ballot, although in many cases (especially state Senates) not every seat was up. The biggest changes were in Michigan and Minnesota. In Michigan, the Republicans broke the Democrats' trifecta by flipping four seats, capturing the state House 58-52. The Democrats still control the state Senate by one seat, with one vacancy in a Democratic district until a special election can be held. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) will still be governor until Jan. 2027, so the state will be paralyzed at least until Jan. 2027, when the Democrats could again get the trifecta.
In Minnesota, the DFL trifecta was broken when the state House was tied at 67-67 (it was 70-64). Some sort of power-sharing arrangement will have to be worked out. The DFL controls the state Senate 34-33. Gov. Tim Walz (DFL-MN) is going to have a tough time governing now. (Note to anyone in D.C. or Puerto Rico working on a potential state Constitution in the event of eventual statehood: Make each chamber of the legislature have an odd number of seats.)
In Montana, Democrats broke the Republicans' supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature, but that doesn't matter so much since the governor is a Republican so there is not much need for the legislature to override any bills he vetoed.
In Nevada, Democrats lost one seat in the Assembly, and with it their supermajority so they can no longer override vetoes issued by Gov. Joe Lombardo (R-NV). Nevertheless, with the Democrats controlling both chambers of the state legislature with large majorities, Lombardo will have to compromise to get anything at all done. One footnote here is that 60% of the state legislators in Nevada are women, the largest percentage of any state.
In New York, Democrats have to be thankful that the swing toward Donald Trump didn't cost them a lot in the state legislature. They did lose a seat in the Asian-dominated SD-17 in South Brooklyn, and with it their supermajority. However, the Senate Democrats don't usually fight much with Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY).
North Carolina is a bit tricky. Trump increased his margin there to 3%, but Democrats won the governorship, lieutenant governorship, AG, SoS, and superintendent of public instruction races. They also flipped a state House seat, breaking the Republicans' supermajority and making it impossible to override the many expected vetoes of Gov.-elect Josh Stein (D-NC). However, there is a chance that moderate Democratic Rep. Cecil Brockman, who represents a heavily Democratic district in Guilford County (Greensboro), may switch to the GOP in return for a promise to support him if he runs for the Council of State in 2028. His constituents? Sorry, dumb suckers.
In Vermont, Gov. Phil Scott (R-VT) was reelected with 73% of the vote. Not bad for a Republican in a very blue state. He ran a good campaign and his coattails brought in six seats in the state Senate and 19 in the state House, breaking the Democrats' supermajorities. Now the Democrats have to play ball with Scott. One thing the Democrats could have done in the current session—and didn't—is enact a law like Idaho and other Western states have, stating that in the event of a U.S. Senate vacancy, the party of the departed senator draws up a list of three potential replacements and the governor must choose one of them. If either Bernie Sanders, who is 83, or Sen. Peter Welch (D-VT), who is 77, should cease to be a senator in their current term, Scott could replace them with a Republican, even though he said he wouldn't. Nevertheless, writing that into state law would have been a lot better for the Democrats, and now it is too late, at least until 2027.
After the Wisconsin Supreme Court threw out the badly gerrymandered state maps, the Democrats had their first real shot at capturing the state legislature in a decade.They got closer, but didn't make it. The GOP will control the state Senate 18-15 and the state Assembly 54-45 (was 22-10 with one vacancy and 64-35, respectively). However, in 2026 the Democrats could flip more seats and get the trifecta if Gov. Tony Evers (D-WI) runs for a third term and wins. (V)