Dem
47
GOP
53
As you undoubtedly know, the real presidential election will take place in the 50 state capitals and D.C. tomorrow. Then, the 538 people authorized to vote for president will do just that. Will there be drama? Faithless electors? Probably not, but you never know. How does it work, exactly?
Here is the official playbook. Once the popular vote is certified, the governor of each state and mayor of D.C. prepare seven original Certificates of Ascertainment. There is no official form the governor can download somewhere. He or she has to wing it. As an example, here is page 1 of the Arizona certificate for 2020:
It runs seven pages and lists how many votes each presidential elector got. Page 1 is the biggie. It says who the winning electors are. The next pages list all the electors who didn't win for the parties on the ballot and how many votes each got. If you want to download the certificates for other states here they are.
The governor (or mayor) prepares seven copies of the certificate, signed by the governor and containing at least one security feature to make it possible to detect forgeries. One gets sent to the National Archives. The other six are held by the governor until tomorrow.
In addition, after the electors named in the Certificates of Ascertainment have voted tomorrow, the governor must prepare six copies of the Certificate of Vote, which states how the electors voted. That must be signed by all the electors. The six Certificates of Ascertainment (which say who the electors are) and the Certificates of Vote (which say how they voted) are paired. Federal law does not specify if they are to be connected by staples, paperclips, glue, or other means. The six copies are put into sealed envelopes and sent as follows:
The paired certificates, bearing the relevant signatures, must arrive by Christmas, a nice present for everyone except the President of the Senate. OK, the law does not say Christmas. It says the fourth Wednesday in December, and this year that happens to be Christmas Day. Everybody who gets one tries not to lose it.
On Jan. 6, 2025, the President of the Senate opens the 51 envelopes, boots up a calculator app on her smartphone, and starts counting. The Archivist of the United States has to be there to check that the President of the Senate is not faking some electoral votes. The Electoral Count Reform Act of 2022 states that the President of the Senate merely opens the envelopes and announces what's on the Certificates of Vote. She does not get to say: "I don't like this one, so let's not count it." This point was a bit of an issue in 2020, as you might have heard. On Jan. 20 at noon, the president-elect and vice-president-elect take their respective oaths of office. The president then gets to work signing XO's or taking the day off, or whatever he wants to do. The vice president then contemplates John Nance ("Cactus Jack") Garner's famous words about what his new office is not worth. (V)