Dec.13

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Appointments News: You Win Some, You Lose Some

There are several interesting stories unfolding on the appointments front. Away we go:

• Pete Hegseth: Hegseth is an unqualified, alcohol-abusing rapist. We've read the police report, and are convinced beyond a shadow of a doubt that the claims made against him are true. Of course, he has not been convicted, so he could claim we have defamed him by not writing "accused sexual assaulter" instead of "rapist" and he could sue us. Such a lawsuit would have the effect of magnifying the claims against him, and would also bring the question of "rapist or not?" into open court (as opposed to being buried, as is currently the case). These would be positive outcomes, in our view. So, we'll stick with our phrasing.
  
  Someone like that simply could not survive as nominee of a Democratic administration. And one week ago, it looked like Hegseth could not survive as nominee of a Republican administration, either. But then Don Donald told the caporegimes to turn up the heat on Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) and others, and the nomination has taken on a second life. There's no good way to know, right now, how many "nay" Republican votes there are (if any), because no GOP senator would dare lay their cards on the table right now. They don't want their careers to end up swimming with the fishes.
  
  As part of his "rebirth," Hegseth decided yesterday that when he said that allowing LGBTQ soldiers into the military was part of a "Marxist agenda," what he actually meant was that he thinks that LGBTQ soldiers are fine and dandy, and he's happy to have them on board. While we have repeatedly, and recently, written that political figures should be allowed to change their minds when presented with new information, Hegseth's 180 on LGBTQ troops and on women in combat rings very, very hollow. Surely the senators aren't fooled, although it's not terribly important if they are fooled. What matters is whether or not they think they have enough political cover to vote for him.
  
  Apparently, Team Trump believes that getting Hegseth through is really important, because if they can do that, it will pave the way for the other controversial nominees, like Tulsi Gabbard and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. It's possible, but it usually doesn't work that way. First of all, the folks who might oppose a Hegseth and the folks who might oppose a Kennedy are not the same exact folks. More significantly, however, is that, just like a president, senators have political capital. They can get away with defying a president of their own party on some number of nominees, but not TOO many. Point is, we suspect that many GOP senators will take the view that if they "give" Trump Hegseth, then they've earned the right to deny him Gabbard and Kennedy.
  
  
• Kari Lake: Our long national nightmare is over; Kari Lake finally has a job (probably). Donald Trump is going to nominate her to lead Voice of America (VOA), which is the radio service that broadcasts American news to a worldwide audience, so as to model "democracy in action." It's kind of a propaganda outlet, just by nature of its stated mission. That said, it's more like the BBC World Service than it is like RT (Russia Today), in that the propagandizing is more implicit than it is over-the-top.
  
  Anyhow, to the extent that the former newscaster Lake is qualified for any federal job, this would seem to be the one. Her appointment is not a done deal; it doesn't have to be approved by the Senate, but it does have to be approved by the bipartisan board that oversees VOA. Trump has previously been very hostile to VOA, including trying to shut it down, because it was not propagandistic enough (specifically, it wasn't anti-China enough for his liking). He lost that battle in court, so this time around he'll try to achieve his goals from inside. If Lake is indeed approved, they will have to strongly consider changing the name to Voices in My Head of America.
  
  And the biggest news here might not be the future of VOA, at all. It may be the future of Arizona politics. In short, Lake has been a giant fly in the ointment of the Arizona Republican Party, and has helped them lose several elections they might otherwise have won. Consequently, her (pending) move to Washington has some Arizona GOPers dancing in the streets. For our part, we recognize that Lake was the face of crazypants Republicanism for numerous years in the Grand Canyon State. However, there is a pretty deep crazypants element in the Arizona Republican Party, as expressed in the careers of Joe Arpaio, Kelli Ward, Jake Hoffman and others. Getting rid of Lake would seem to be a case of treating the symptom, not the disease.
  
  
• Christopher Wray: The demise of soon-to-be-former FBI Director Christopher Wray is eventually going to create a slot for Donald Trump to fill, so we're putting the latest Wray-related news in this item.
  
  To start, in private, Wray has let slip at least one reason he chose to resign rather than allow himself to be fired. In short, he is loyal to the Bureau, and he wants to do everything he can to keep it from being politicized (even if that ship is about to sail, big-time). To that end, he felt that falling on his sword would be better for the Bureau's image, as compared to allowing it to be dragged into an ugly partisan fight.
  
  There is also a second potential impact to Wray's resigning rather than being fired, though it's not at all clear if it's part of his thinking, or if he's even aware of it, or if it really holds water. This was pointed out by right-wing talker Erick Erickson, and then by The New York Times' David French, although neither of them did a great job of explaining it. In short, the Vacancies Reform Act says that if a Senate-confirmed officeholder "dies, resigns, or is otherwise unable to perform the functions and duties of the office," then, until the Senate can approve someone new, the departed person has to be replaced by someone else who is Senate-confirmed, or else someone in the senior management of the agency that employed the departed person.
  
  You will notice that the list includes "dies" and "resigns" but does not include "is fired" or "is removed." So, the argument that Erickson and French are making is that if and when Wray resigns, the Vacancies Reform Act immediately kicks in, and Trump would have to choose a (temporary) replacement with qualifications that Kash Patel does not meet (he is not currently Senate-confirmed, and he's not currently in senior management of the FBI). If Trump did not choose a temporary replacement, then Deputy Director Paul Abbate would be elevated, as the most senior remaining member of the FBI.
  
  The only way this potentially matters, in any meaningful way, is if the Senate: (1) is unwilling to approve Patel, and (2) goes into recess. In that case, if Wray DID NOT resign, Trump could fire him and replace him with Patel and have Patel running the Bureau for up to 2 years. But if Wray DOES resign, then the Vacancies Reform Act takes over, and the recess appointment option is theoretically not available. We are not sure that Erickson and French have much of a point here, though, because: (1) the Senate is not likely to recess, and (2) Trump could probably fire Abbate and then appoint Patel. The Vacancies Reform Act does not specifically forestall that, though it does not allow it either, so the matter might well end up in court.

And that's the latest from us. We're working while you're sleeping. (Z)