Dem
47
GOP
53
On Tuesday, Mitch McConnell fell at the Capitol and sustained minor injuries. He was back at work later in the day.
Nevertheless, McConnell's health issues could have far-reaching consequences. It has already happened at least twice that McConnell froze for 30 seconds while speaking in public. These incidents could have been TIAs, but McConnell has never explained them and never released any medical reports. There may have been more, just not in public. Now he fell. This could be the final straw for McConnell. Sometime early next year he could announce that he is not running for reelection in 2026 and will leave the Senate on Jan. 3, 2027.
There would be multiple consequences to this. First, Donald Trump's primary weapon is the primary. When a member of Congress refuses to do his bidding, he always threatens a primary. But that wouldn't work with McConnell if he has already announced that he is retiring. With no sword of Damocles hanging over his head, McConnell could spend the next 2 years openly opposing Trump on anything he doesn't like and not have to worry about the consequences. Trump couldn't threaten McConnell with financial ruin, either, because his wife, Elaine Chao, is a multimillionaire many times over. Together with Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski, McConnell could force 50-50 votes in the Senate, and if they could find one more senator with a spine, could block some of Trump's worst plans.
But there is more. If McConnell decides to retire, there will be an open seat election in Kentucky in 2026. It is possible that term-limited Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY), who has already won three statewide elections in Kentucky, could enter the race and win. If the Democrats hold all their own seats in 2026 and knock off Collins and Thom Tillis (a tall order, but not impossible if Trump is deeply unpopular then), the next Senate would be 50-50, giving every Republican senator a veto over Trump's plans for the second half of his term. In addition, if Beshear runs and wins, that sets him up as a serious presidential candidate in 2028, potentially changing who might succeed Trump in the White House. So, a lot is riding on McConnell's health. (V)