Dem
47
GOP
53
Donald Trump has big plans for the country, some of which require cooperation from the Senate or from both chambers of Congress. The Republicans have 53 seats in the upper chamber, but who will be sitting in those seats is not clear in two cases: Ohio and Florida. With such a small margin, it might matter.
On Jan. 20, when Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) becomes Vice President J.D. Vance, Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH) will get to pick who gets to sit in Vance's seat. That person will have to face the voters in 2026 in order to fill out Vance's term, which ends on Jan. 3, 2029. But for two years, DeWine's pick will be a senator. DeWine does not like Trump at all. And he certainly does not like the way Vance and Trump made up a story about legal immigrants in Springfield, OH, eating cats and dogs. DeWine has several things to consider and Trump's feelings are not high on the list.
On top of the list is keeping the seat red. DeWine knows that just-defeated Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) might run to get back in the Senate in 2026 and he would be a tough opponent, so DeWine can't pick a placeholder. Among other choices, he has Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R-OH), AG Dave Yost, SoS Frank LaRose, state Sen. Matt Dolan, and others. Dolan is not at all Trumpy, but his family owns the Cleveland Guardians baseball team, so he could self-fund the 2026 race. If DeWine picks Dolan, Trump will have a fit, but DeWine will just tell him that Dolan would be the strongest candidate against Brown in 2026. But there is more. DeWine is term limited in 2026 and would like his lieutenant, Husted, to succeed him. This means getting Yost out of the way. Sending him to the Senate would get him out of the way. It's complicated and DeWine hasn't tipped his hand yet. The new senator from Ohio could be very Trumpy or not at all Trumpy.
Assuming Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) is confirmed as secretary of state, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) gets to replace him until the 2026 special election to fill out Rubio's term, which, like Vance's, ends on Jan. 3, 2029. DeSantis has a vision of beating Vance in the 2028 primaries and he doesn't want Trump to actively endorse Vance. So he has to make nice to him. Trump wants DeSantis to appoint Lara Trump, his daughter-in-law, to Rubio's seat, even though Lara is from North Carolina and has no ties to Florida. DeSantis is almost as transactional as Trump and would demand something very concrete in return. The position of secretary of defense would do, thank you very much. However, the current nominee, Pete Hegseth, might yet get confirmed, which would mess up the plan. DeSantis could obviously name himself to the seat, of course, which would anger Trump but give himself a power base in 2028, when he will no longer be governor.
Another possible appointee is Florida AG Ashley Moody, a former Democrat who once sued Trump for fraud over a condo deal. She is now quite Trumpy. Another plus point for Moody is that DeSantis' chief of staff, James Uthmeier, wants her job. It's all very complicated. (V)