Dem
47
GOP
53
It is starting to get scary. Yesterday, we noted that Don Donald was beginning to act like any other mafia don. He has pressured Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) into making nice to Pete Hegseth despite his history of paying hush money to a woman he sexually assaulted and Ernst's history of being a survivor of sexual assault. It's only going to get worse. It's RINO-hunting season and every Republican who doesn't bow down is in danger of losing his or her job (and maybe more). Here is the photo from the front of Politico's website yesterday:
Note the wording of the headline. That was not a slip of the pen. The writer almost certainly chose that phrasing, with all its implications, with care. Also note the document on the lectern. What may have "convinced" Ernst to get in line was an op-ed written by very Trumpy Iowa AG Brenna Bird (R) telling the senators to vote for Trump's entire cabinet—or else. While most people don't know who Brenna Bird is, Ernst certainly does. Bird is the person who will primary Ernst next year if Ernst fails to obey her betters. And you can be sure Bird will be extremely well funded. Of course, Bird may primary Ernst, even if the Senator does fall in line. Trump would much rather have senators who are true believers than senators who are just pretending to be on the team while secretly thinking about how to sabotage it.
Talk about primaries is not just idle threats. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), one of the four remaining senators who voted to convict Trump after he was impeached, just drew a primary challenger—just after Louisiana got rid of its jungle primary and replaced it with partisan primaries. Cassidy probably won't be the last. Being lukewarm is not good enough. Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SD) received a warning from MAGA activist and Trump insider Charlie Kirk for merely saying that he had no complaints about current FBI Director Christopher Wray. DOGEy Elon Musk was more explicit, saying: "Those who oppose reform will lose their primary/election." Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) said that colleagues who oppose Trump don't belong in the Senate. Corey Lewandowski said: "There will be no resource that we won't use to target senators who stymie Trump's nominations."
While Trump is serious about primaries, most senators know that no elected senator has lost a primary since 2012. It is very tough to unseat a sitting senator. Threats to do so may even backfire by causing the senator to appear to cooperate while working to sabotage Trump under the radar. Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) even said: " I don't think it makes more loyal senators out of people. Senators are not slouches. I don't know many wimpy senators." Ultimately, many of the things Trump wants cost money and in the end, Congress controls the purse strings. A few extra sentences can sneak into a bill or be deleted from a bill a few minutes before it is voted on and stuff like that.
Everyone is keeping a close eye on three senators in particular. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is up in 2026 in a blue state. She may draw the popular Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) as her opponent. Mills knows very well that her Democratic neighbors from New Hampshire, Sens. Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan, were governors before they became senators. If Trump gets a super Trumper to primary Collins, all that does is guarantee a Sen. Mills. Collins knows this, too. It's a big game of chicken. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) knows that he narrowly escaped defeat in 2020 because his opponent, Cal Cunningham, had a zipper management problem. If he faces popular Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) in 2026, he could lose that one. These two are between a rock and a hard place. And finally, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will probably retire in 2026, so he can't be bullied with a primary threat. If the nominees lose one more senator, the nominees go down. It could be close on some of them. (V)