Dec.02

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

I Beg Your Pardon?

For months, if not years, the question has been whether or not Joe Biden would pardon his son Hunter at 11:59 a.m. on January 20 of next year. Turns out, the issue was not "whether" but instead "when," as the President issued a statement late in the day yesterday announcing that he was granting his son a full and unconditional pardon for any offenses committed between January 1, 2014 and... yesterday.

As a reminder, there were two criminal matters that the First Son faced and that he is now free and clear from. The first is that, while he was on a drug bender, he bought a gun. The form you fill out has a line where you have to affirm you are not using illicit drugs. There's some room for parsing exactly what it means to be "using illicit drugs" (e.g., "how recent does the use have to be?"), but Biden's "no" answer should probably be considered a lie. The second offense is that he underpaid his taxes by seven figures (about $1.4 million) and got caught by the IRS.

Was the father right to pardon the son? We think there are four arguments that point to "yes." Here they are, from strongest to weakest:

1. Hunter Jones, Part I: Both of the things that the younger Biden got popped for are definitely things that people can go to prison for. However, the gun offense is based on a law of dubious legality, a law that may soon be struck down. Further, on the other occasions when that law has been used against a felon, it was as an aggravating factor in some other crime (e.g., the person lied about their drug use, got a gun as a result of their fraud, then used the gun to commit a robbery). Biden did nothing criminal with his gun, and actually disposed of it a couple of weeks after purchase. As to the tax fraud, it was pretty serious. However, as with so many white-collar (and white-person) crimes, it tends not to result in prison time if the person fesses up and makes restitution. Or, if it does, it's slap-on-the-wrist prison time, like a couple of weeks at a Club Fed.
   
   The point here is that there is a very, very strong case to be made that if this man were Hunter Jones, instead of Hunter Biden, he would not have gotten a fraction of the attention, and would not have been facing years in prison. The son should not pay for the "sins" of the father (i.e., being a Republican whipping boy), and so on that basis alone, the pardon is justified.
   
   
2. Hunter Jones, Part II: There are several reasons that the Founding Parents granted the power of the pardon to the president, and one of those was to allow for gross miscarriages of justice to be corrected. If Hunter Biden really was named Hunter Jones, and the White House became aware that he was being hit with a punishment that far exceeds what is typical for his crime, and that he's cleaned up his act since his lawbreaking days, it would be an appropriate use of the pardon power to correct that injustice.
   
   
3. The Great Unknown: If the President had allowed this moment to pass, and put his son's fate in Donald Trump's hands, it is hard to know what would have happened. Maybe the incoming administration wouldn't have gotten involved at all. Maybe Trump would have issued a pardon, so as to appear magnanimous. Those two outcomes seem possible, if not likely.
   
   More probable, we think, is that Team Trump would have taken advantage of the situation in some way. When you read the next item, about Kash Patel and his scary ideas, you can begin to think of some of the things that might have been on the table. Team Trump could have pushed for unduly harsh sentencing. Or they could have made sure Hunter got stuck in the harshest and most dangerous prison they could find—maybe ADX Florence, where they put the real prizes, like the Unabomber and Dzhokhar Tsarnaev. Maybe they would have arranged for Hunter to be housed with some unfriendlies—say, accused terrorists who are angry about the current administration's policy in the Middle East/Gaza.
   
   As we note, we think the "do something nasty" possibility is more likely than not. But even if it's only 5% likely to happen, how can a father risk it, when he has the power to prevent it?
   
   
4. The Golden Watch: Maybe we shouldn't write this, and we understand there are limits here based on the crime committed and other factors, but the fact is that Joe Biden has served his country and his party for 50+ years, and has often put the needs of others ahead of his own (for example, clearing out for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Kamala Harris in 2024). Further, in case anyone hadn't noticed, people in positions of power get all kinds of perks not available to the rest of us. In any case, if one wants to think of this as Biden's Golden Watch—a thank you for his years and years of public service as he moves into retirement—we actually don't find that objectionable. Jimmy Carter pardoned his brother Billy, George H.W. Bush gave clemency to his son Neil, and Bill Clinton pardoned his half-brother Roger—it's part of the severance package, in a manner of speaking.

Needless to say, Republicans across the land soiled themselves when they heard the news, framing it as the greatest miscarriage of justice in the history of the nation. Here, for example, is incoming White House Communications Director Steven Cheung:

The failed witch hunts against President Trump have proven that the Democrat-controlled DOJ and other radical prosecutors are guilty of weaponizing the justice system. That system of justice must be fixed and due process must be restored for all Americans, which is exactly what President Trump will do as he returns to the White House with an overwhelming mandate from the American people.

It is well within the realm of possibility that we will not directly quote Cheung again for months, or maybe years. Everything he says might as well have been written by ChatGPT. In fact, here is what ChatGPT produces if you ask it what Cheung would say in the event of a pardon:

The reported pardon of Hunter Biden is a blatant abuse of power and a slap in the face to every hardworking American who expects equal justice under the law. This administration has consistently shown that it prioritizes protecting its own over upholding the principles of fairness and accountability.

If the Biden family can evade consequences for serious allegations, it raises a troubling question: Is justice only for some? The American people deserve leaders who respect the rule of law—not ones who manipulate it for personal gain. This pardon is nothing short of a disgrace and a glaring example of the corruption at the heart of this administration.

Can you see a substantive difference between the AI version and the real deal? We can't.

We only quote Cheung here because he was the first one to come out with guns blazing, and because he illustrates how very knee-jerk the Republican response is, and will continue to be. They are going to whine, and kvetch, and moan for a few news cycles, ignoring the utter hypocrisy of their position (given that Trump handed out pardons to friends like candy) and then... they will find something else to be angry about. It will be largely forgotten by next week, and will be entirely forgotten by November of 2026.

Of course, one might argue that by pardoning his son, Joe Biden gave Trump cover to abuse the pardon power once January 20 of next year rolls around. But here's the breaking news: Trump has not only already done that, but he will continue to do it, Hunter Biden pardon or not. After all, Trump has a far greater need to use and abuse the pardon power for benefit of his circle, inasmuch as he's surrounded himself with rogues and villains. And he has far less compunction about doing it, given his lack of moral compass, and the fact that he knows he will never be held accountable.

For all of the reasons here, we have believed for many months that a pardon was coming; we just thought it would come at the bitter end (the way the other presidential-relative pardons did). Beyond that, in our view, there's nothing surprising here and also nothing particularly impactful, except for the members of the First Family. (Z)