Dem
51
GOP
49
It is well known that the vice presidency is not worth a bucket of some warm liquid. So why would anyone take the job? Well there is the $284,600 annual salary with no work associated with the job unless the Senate deadlocks on a vote. Over 4 years, that is over a million dollars. But many of the people who take the job fully expect to become president after their boss is done. In practice, it is very rare for a sitting vice president to be elected president. In fact, it has happened only one time since 1836. In 1988, George H.W. Bush, then the sitting veep, succeeded his boss, Ronald Reagan. In the past 188 years, that was the only time it has happened.
Needless to say, there is no law preventing the veep from trying for a promotion. For example, in 2000, Al Gore tried. In 1968, Hubert Humphrey tried. In 1960, Richard Nixon tried. None of them succeeded.
Looking at these and other attempts, two factors appear to be critical here. First, the vice president is generally seen as an extension of the president. If the president is unpopular or enmeshed in a scandal, voters won't pull the lever for "more of the same." Second, if the president is popular, his popularity rubs off on #2 only if the president and vice president had a close working relationship.
Gore was hurt by the Monica Lewinsky scandal, even though he obviously was not involved in it at all. Still, at the convention, he practically made out on stage with his then-wife, Tipper Gore, to show the country how much he loved her. If he had done any more, the network censors would have made the cameras cut away from the make-out session on stage.
Humphrey was done in by his vigorous support for the Vietnam War. He was much too tightly tied to Lyndon Johnson's policies on it and by 1968, they were so unpopular, that even the never-popular Richard Nixon was seen by many voters as a better bet, even though he claimed to have a secret plan to end the war. In the end, it turned out that his secret plan to end the war was to lose it. In all fairness to Nixon, it did work.
During Nixon's 1960 campaign, reporters asked President Eisenhower: "Can you name one time when Nixon's advice helped you?" Ike said: "If you give me a week, maybe I could think of one time." That didn't help. Besides, Nixon had not just finished winning WW II like Ike had.
1988 might have been an exception because Reagan was a popular president, there was peace and prosperity in the country, and Reagan openly supported his veep, who promised to continue Reagan's policies. Bush was simply a younger Reagan and people liked Reagan. It didn't hurt that his opponent, Mike Dukakis, was a very weak candidate.
Now what about Kamala Harris? Before he dropped out, only about 40% of voters approved of Joe Biden's performance. That is not great for Harris, but the rap against him was that he is old and tired. She is anything but that, so that is unlikely to hurt her the way Johnson's policies and Clinton's behavior hurt their veeps. Also, all four living Democrats who have served as president are solidly behind Harris. Still, Harris is trying to do something that has rarely been achieved. On the other hand, her opponent is widely hated by close to half the country, an edge none of the previous veeps had. (V)