Dem
51
GOP
49
Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump say they want to unify the country. But their supporters sure don't want to. On a number of issues, Democrats and Republicans are very far apart, with little hope of bridging the divide. A new Pew Research Center poll shows this starkly. Here are three of the issues where the country is most divided by partisanship:
In short, Harris supporters are strongly pro-gun-control, believe that white people have advantages over Black people, and want a bigger, more aggressive government. Trump supporters strongly oppose all of these things. How can the country be unified when the two sides are so far apart on so many basic things? Maybe the country simply can't be fixed. Maybe there is no way to do it.
Right now, all national elections are almost exactly balanced on knife's edge. It is amazing that this is so stable and for so long. It wasn't always the case that 50,000 votes cast differently in four or five states would change the winner. Here are the 1984 and 1992 electoral college maps. Note the differences:
Will the country always stay on knife's edge? We don't know. We do know that between 1984 (Ronald Reagan's landslide win) and 1992 (Bill Clinton's landslide win) a lot changed, although Ross Perot's presence in 1992 may have distorted the picture a little. What would it take to get off the knife's edge? We don't know. One possibility could be a Harris win in 2024 (even by a hair) and then Donald Trump disappearing from the scene in 2028, either due to death, illness, imprisonment, or the Republicans deciding they have had enough of losing (which Trump calls winning). Then there could be a vicious battle between potential Trump imitators with the Republicans nominating one who didn't have 45-47% of the country locked in. For example, we very much doubt Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) would have a guaranteed 45% floor.
Another factor that could get the country off knife's edge is demographics. Every 4 years, another batch of people who were 14-17 last time get to vote. When young people are offered a candidate they actually like, they could vote in large numbers for the Democrats. Kamala Harris is probably one of these. Gov. Tim Walz (DFL-MN) is probably not one of these. We could at least imagine that a race in 2032 with, say, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) vs. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) would not be on knife's edge. (V)