Dem
51
GOP
49
An initiative called Amendment 4 is on the Florida ballot in November. It is the initiative that would enshrine the right to an abortion in the Florida Constitution. It needs a 60% majority to pass and polling shows it is close. Donald Trump votes in Florida and Amendment 4 will be on his ballot. Anti-abortion activists want to know how he will vote on it. He refuses to say. This is aggravating them enormously.
It is not that they doubt he would sign a national abortion ban if the Republicans got the trifecta, abolished the filibuster, and passed one. He appointed three virulently anti-abortion justices to the Supreme Court. The anti-abortion activists know full well where Trump stands. What bothers them is that they believe if he came out strongly as "No on 4," Team MAGA would vote against the Amendment en masse. Since Trump has refused to to take a position, some Republicans will vote yes on 4 and it could pass, as an initiative did in Kansas, a deep-red state.
But Trump—and some of the anti-abortion activists—understand that taking a position on the Amendment would be toxic, no matter which side he is on. Electorally, his best position is to hem and haw and mumble something about secret ballots. That will maximize the chances of his winning, which they very much want. But his hemming and hawing will also maximize the chances that Amendment 4 passes, which is what they very much don't want.
As a result, the anti-abortion movement is divided. Some people in it want him to keep refusing to answer so he can be elected, even if Florida becomes an abortion haven. Others think that is too high a price to pay and want him to urge everyone to vote "No on 4." Florida is especially important due to its location in the South. Here is the national abortion map:
As you can see, abortion is banned everywhere in the South and much of the Midwest. Suppose Amendment 4 passes. Then it is guaranteed that abortion clinics will open in Tallahassee, which is 18 miles from the Georgia border along U.S. 319, and in Pensacola, which is an hour's drive from Mobile, AL, 90 minutes' drive from Pascagoula, MS, and 3 hours from New Orleans. All of a sudden, women in South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana will be able to drive to an abortion clinic, have a procedure, and be home the same day. To the anti-abortion forces, this is a horror and some of them want Trump to stop it by telling people to vote "No on 4." But others understand that having Trump say this will probably guarantee that Kamala Harris will be elected president. For women in Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, and Iowa, the Amendment doesn't matter as much because Illinois is closer. For women in North Carolina and Virginia, Maryland is close enough.
For the anti-abortion forces, it is a tough call. For Trump it is an easy call. He doesn't give a rat's a** about abortion. He cares only about his own ass. He knows that taking a stand either way will probably allow Harris to win, with the consequence that he goes to prison. The debate moderators know this, of course. We would fall off our chairs if none of the moderators were to say: "Mr. Trump, there is an amendment on the Florida ballot that will guarantee the right to an abortion in Florida. Will you vote for it? Please answer 'yes' or 'no' and then explain your answer." Cue the weaselling and cue Harris jumping all over him for it. She will say: "Coward, take a position. There is a similar measure in California and I will proudly vote for it." (V)