Aug.28

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

We're Officially in the Messy Part of Ballot-Printing Season

A number of times in the past several months, we've been asked questions about when the "point of no return" arrives in terms of the names that will appear on election ballots. There's no single answer to that, of course, as it depends based on state and on whether the candidate is independent or not.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., he who recently abandoned his presidential campaign, is an excellent case in point. Here is where things stand with him, in terms of the ballot in the ten swingiest states:

• Arizona: OFF (probably). Kennedy filed for withdrawal before the deadline, and if his paperwork is in order, he'll be removed.
  
  
• Florida: OFF. Kennedy filed the necessary paperwork with a day to spare.
  
  
• Georgia: OFF. Kennedy botched his paperwork, and was likely going to be off the Georgia ballot even if he wanted to be on.
  
  
• Michigan: ON. The easiest path to ballot access in Michigan was to become the nominee of the Natural Law Party. Per state law, certified candidates of third parties cannot withdraw.
  
  
• Nevada: ON. Kennedy could have withdrawn in Nevada, but the deadline passed on Aug. 20.
  
  
• North Carolina: ON (probably). As in Michigan, Kennedy was the candidate of an actual political party. Yes, the We the People Party was one he invented to get on the ballot, but it's a party nonetheless. If the We the People Party was to ask to withdraw from the ballot (no request has yet been made), then North Carolina officials have discretion as to whether to grant the request, based on whether it is "practical." Since close to half of North Carolina counties have already started printing ballots, it's presumably not "practical."
  
  
• Ohio: OFF. Thanks to the Ohio ballot-deadline change that got so much attention, Kennedy had until Sept. 6 to withdraw, and that is what he did.
  
  
• Pennsylvania: OFF. There was an ongoing lawsuit about Kennedy's candidacy, because of the phony address he used on his candidacy paperwork. When Kennedy advised the judge that he was no longer contesting the issue, the judge ruled for the plaintiffs, and Kennedy ceased to be a valid candidate.
  
  
• Texas: OFF. Texas allows candidates to withdraw until fairly late in the process. If the withdrawal might help Donald Trump, they would probably extend the deadline even more.
  
  
• Wisconsin: ON. Once a candidate qualifies for the ballot, they can only be removed if they die. That means that Kennedy technically does have options here, though he will presumably choose not to exercise them.

So, that is four of ten swing states where Kennedy will still appear on the ballot. We do not think he will get large numbers of votes from people who support him, and yet somehow don't know he dropped out. However, he was running as a protest candidate. If he's still there on the ballot, then he could certainly get protest votes, the way Nikki Haley did after she dropped out of the Republican primaries.

Incidentally, because Kennedy is still going to make the ballot in some places, even though he's not running for president anymore, there's a ribald joke going around on social media right now:

What do Robert F. Kennedy Sr. and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have in common?

We will put the punchline below. Please do not scroll down if you do not care for ribaldry.

Also on this subject (ballot access, not ribaldry), Cornel West is back on the ballot in Michigan, having won a lawsuit over the weekend. Exactly what he's trying to accomplish remains unclear to us but, in any case, if he's going to take votes from a major-party candidate, that candidate will likely be Kamala Harris. (Z)