Dem 51
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GOP 49
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Nancy Dahlstrom Withdraws from Alaska House Race

The Democrats need to flip four House seats to take charge, so every seat matters. That includes the one in far-off Alaska. In the primary, Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) came in first, followed by Nick Begich (R), Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R-AK) and Matthew Salisbury (R). Normally these four would compete in a ranked-choice general election race in November. However, Dahlstrom just dropped out to avoid splitting the vote with Begich. We presume she doesn't understand how ranked-choice voting works. If she stayed in, the more votes the Republicans got, the less likely Peltola would hit 51% and then win outright. In due course, she would have been eliminated anyway, so there was no reason for her to drop out, unless she was playing 3D chess.

In the primary, Peltola got 51% of the total vote. If she gets that in the general election, she wins and there is no second round. If she just misses, the candidate with the fewest votes will be eliminated and those votes redistributed.

It appears that with Dahlstrom out, the fifth-place finisher, John Howe (AIP) will also make the general election ballot. The AIP is the Alaska Independence Party. It wants Alaska to secede from the union and become an independent country. Neither Salisbury nor Howe has raised any money and it doesn't matter in what order they are eliminated. In the end, it will be Peltola vs. Begich. That said, if there is an AIP candidate on the ballot, it could get some libertarian-ish voters to the polls. Those folks might be more likely to put a Republican second than a Democrat. So, Dahlstrom effectively allowing herself to be replaced by a wacky third-party candidate might add a few votes to Begich's total. And when it's gonna be close, every vote counts. Was this her game plan? We don't know and she's not saying. (V)



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