Dem
51
GOP
49
With the country facing so many problems, it is incredible that it may all come down to abortion, but it might. There are abortion initiatives in 10 states now. The most recent state where abortion made the ballot is Nebraska, but with a twist. Instead of one measure, as in all the other states, there will be two dueling initiatives on the Nebraska ballot. One guarantees the right to an abortion and one bans the procedure. So both supporters and opponents have something to vote for and something to vote against. We hope they can keep track of which is which. If both of the measures get >50%, the one with the most votes wins, although it is hard to imagine a majority of Nebraskans simultaneously being for abortion and against abortion. It is worth noting that a pro-abortion initiative passed in neighboring Kansas, which is as red as Nebraska and has similar demographics. Also, the pro-abortion measure may boost turnout in NE-02, which has a PVI of EVEN and its very own electoral vote.
You might not have noticed that there are abortion initiatives in Colorado, Nevada, and New York. And if you did notice, you might have thought: "Who cares?" since abortion is already guaranteed in those states. Actually, the DCCC cares very much and put out a memo explaining why.
Fundamentally, there are 18 House districts where abortion could help the Democrats flip seats or preserve endangered ones. Twelve of the 18 districts are in these three states. Here is the list. It is color-coded according to the party of the incumbent, not the PVI:
| District | Incumbent | PVI |
| AZ-01 | David Schweikert (R) | R+2 |
| AZ-06 | Juan Ciscomani (R) | R+3 |
| CO-03 | OPEN (was Lauren Boebert) | R+7 |
| CO-08 | Yadira Caraveo (D) | EVEN |
| FL-13 | Anna Paulina Luna (R) | R+6 |
| FL-27 | Maria Elvira Salazar (R) | EVEN |
| MT-01 | Ryan Zinke (R) | R+6 |
| NE-02 | Don Bacon (R) | EVEN |
| NV-01 | Dina Titus (D) | D+3 |
| NV-03 | Susie Lee (D) | D+1 |
| NV-04 | Steven Horsford (D) | D+3 |
| NY-01 | Nick LaLota (R) | R+3 |
| NY-03 | Tom Suozzi (D) | D+2 |
| NY-04 | Anthony D'Esposito (R) | D+5 |
| NY-17 | Mike Lawler (R) | D+3 |
| NY-18 | Pat Ryan (D) | D+1 |
| NY-19 | Marc Molinaro (R) | EVEN |
| NY-22 | Brandon Williams (R) | D+1 |
If all the stars align, the Democrats could pick up one seat in Colorado, two in New York, and protect a number of their vulnerable incumbents in all three states. They could also potentially flip up to three seats in Arizona, two in Florida, one in Montana, and one in Nebraska, all of which have abortion on the ballot. In addition, there are three swing districts in Orange County, CA, where Democrats are either defending an incumbent or challenging one, namely CA-45 (Michelle Steel, R, D+2), CA-47 (OPEN, D, D+3), and CA-49 (Mike Levin, D, D+3). So abortion initiatives could affect which party controls the House, as well as who wins the presidency. (V)