Dem
51
GOP
49
Pennsylvania is the mother of all swing states right now. Insiders are saying that Donald Trump's Pennsylvania strategy is to send Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) to the Keystone state and basically tell him to stay there. It makes some sense. The "Alabama" (or "Pennsyltucky") part of Pennsylvania, between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, is culturally like Appalachia, where Vance hails from. Of course, somewhere along the way, he turned into a Yale Law School graduate and Silicon Valley venture capitalist, but he probably won't talk much about that part of his C.V.
The swap of Joe Biden for Kamala Harris made Pennsylvania even more critical for Trump. Harris might be able to survive the loss of Pennsylvania because she appears strong in Arizona and is roughly tied in North Carolina. For Trump, without Pennsylvania, he is in deep doodoo. He is lucky that Harris picked Gov. Tim Walz (DFL-MN) as her sidekick. With Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) on the ticket, Pennsylvania would likely have been out of reach for Trump. Of course, Walz creates problems elsewhere for Trump—for example, attracting votes from veterans in Arizona and elsewhere.
Vance's main job in Pennsylvania will be the get-out-the-vote operation. One thing he will do is encourage Republicans to get an absentee ballot and send it back early to lock in those votes. He will probably mostly roam the western part of the state.
Harris understands this, of course but will also campaign in "Alabama." She knows she can't carry those counties, but if she can lose by 5 points fewer than Biden did in 2020, that could guarantee victory statewide. And of course, she will campaign vigorously in Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and the surrounding suburbs.
One thing Trump has to be careful about is putting so much time, energy, and money into Pennsylvania that he neglects the four "southern route" states of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, especially since Harris could potentially win any or all of them. They are not slam dunks anymore, as they were when Biden was the likely nominee. Also, Florida and Texas might need some attention, and they won't get it if the Trump campaign focuses too much on Pennsylvania. (V)