Dem
51
GOP
49
During the Democratic National Convention, Kamala Harris took in another $82 million. She has raised $540 million since she entered the campaign about 5 weeks ago. The hour after Harris' acceptance speech was her best single hour so far; apparently, some people were waiting to see if she would take the gig. If she had said: "Thanks, but I don't want the job," they would have apparently kept their money.
One-third of the contributions during the convention were from first-time donors, who are going to be hit up over and over in September and October. The most common occupations for donors were teachers and nurses. That might be due to Harris' speech emphasizing what she will do for middle-class people. Since the convention started, people have signed up for 200,000 volunteer shifts
Harris is expected to get a boost from the convention, although Robert Kennedy Jr.'s withdrawal could take a bite out of it. It will take at least a week to get a real idea of how much of a boost she gets, and several weeks to see if it lasts. That said, Nate Silver's model now has Harris ahead of Donald Trump 48.8% to 44.8% nationally, or Harris +4.0. The Hill's average has Harris ahead 49.5% to 45.9%, or Harris +3.6. FiveThirtyEight puts it at Harris 47.2% and Trump 43.7%, or Harris +3.6. RealClearPolling has it at Harris 48.4% and Trump 46.9%, or Harris +1.5. The average of these four averages is Harris +3.2. None of these averages reflect the full expected convention bump or Kennedy's endorsement of Trump. (V)