Dem
51
GOP
49
Montana is now the ninth state with an abortion initiative on the November ballot. It is official, now that Montana Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen (R) has certified that more than the required 60,300 signatures needed have been gathered. Organizers submitted 117,000 signatures, just to be sure. Still, we are almost surprised Jacobsen certified it because she is as partisan as they come and has done her level best to make voting difficult in Montana (e.g. making sure student ID cards aren't valid ID for voting and not allowing anyone to collect absentee ballots from tribal members who might be 50 miles from the nearest mailbox and mailing them all at once). The initiative would become part of the Montana Constitution and bars the state government from interfering with an abortion before the point of fetal viability.
Montana is important because there is a key Senate race there between Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) and aerial firefighter Tim Sheehy. The initiative is likely to draw young people and women to the polls who might not otherwise vote because they know Montana will go for Trump. But now they have a reason to vote and that is very likely to help Tester.
The other eight states are Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, South Dakota, Missouri, Florida, Maryland and New York. In some of those, like Colorado and New York, abortion is already legal, so the initiative won't change things very much (the initiatives are meant as insurance against a future Republican administration). But in some states (in addition to Montana) it could matter a lot. Topping the list is Arizona. It is rapidly becoming a purple state. The governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, and secretary of state are all Democrats. Both senators were elected as Democrats.
In polling, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) is running almost 10 points ahead of Kari Lake (R) and his coattails may pull in the state for Kamala Harris. Now with an abortion initiative in the ballot, it is possible that not only will Harris get the 11 electoral votes, but the Democrats could flip both chambers of the state legislature and get the trifecta. At that point, State Democrats could start passing all kinds of laws that would make Barry Goldwater roll over in his grave (although it should be noted that, being a libertarian at heart, he was pro-choice). With abortion on the ballot, our intuitive feeling is that Arizona is now the most likely of the seven swing states to go blue. Of course, Harris should not get cocky and ignore it, but because Nevada still swings very much, any trip to Nevada should also include one or more stops in Arizona as well. A drive from Las Vegas through Henderson, NV, Flagstaff, AZ, Sedona, AZ, Prescott, AZ, and then on to Phoenix takes about 6 hours, plus time for short rallies at each stop. It's doable in one long day.
Three other states where to abortion initiative are important are Nevada, Maryland, and Florida. Like Arizona,k Nevada is a swing state with a key U.S. Senate election, and the initiative could help the Democrats carry the state. In Maryland, there is a Senate race between Angela Alsobrooks (D) and former governor Larry Hogan (R). Democratic turnout there could go up and ensure that Alsobrooks beats the popular Hogan. In Florida, the initiative could help Harris win the state and also help Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) unseat Sen. Rick Scott (R). So abortion could play an important role in at least five states. When Donald Trump adopted the policy of "leave abortion to the states," he didn't realize it could cost him the presidency, which could result in his going to prison.
And on Monday, he made a bad situation even worse. He told CBS News that if elected, he would not use the 150-year-old Comstock Act to ban mailing mifepristone. Anti-abortionists went nuts on this. They saw that as their backstop if a nationwide ban on abortion couldn't get through Congress. Prominent conservatives called his remark "cowardly," "nonsensical," and "not pro-life." Will this cause some single-issue anti-abortion voters to stay home on Election Day? Maybe a few. And it could certainly cut down on donations and volunteers. (V)