Aug.22

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

DNC, Day Three: A Tear and a Smile

You might not know this, but the Democratic National Convention is underway right now. Yesterday was the third day; you can watch it here, if you wish:

And here are our thoughts on the 10 most notable storylines of the day:

1. Roll Call Music: We promised yesterday to run down the songs played during the Democrats' roll call on Tuesday, and now we deliver:
   
   

   State	Song	Artist	Reason Chosen
   Alabama	Sweet Home Alabama	Lynyrd Skynyrd	Lynyrd Skynyrd is from Alabama; the song is about Alabama.
   Alaska	Feel It Still	Portugal. The Man	The band is from Wasilla, AK, dontcha know.
   American Samoa	Edge of Glory	Lady Gaga	American Samoa is the southernmost location (a.k.a. the southern edge) of the U.S.
   Arizona	Edge of Seventeen	Stevie Nicks	Nicks is from Phoenix.
   Arkansas	Don't Stop	Fleetwood Mac	This was the campaign theme song of Arkansan Bill Clinton.
   California	The Next Episode	Dr. Dre ft. Snoop Dogg	Dre and Snoop are from Compton, CA, and Long Beach, CA, respectively.
   California	California Love	2Pac and Dr. Dre	Dre is from Compton; the song is about California.
   California	Alright	Kendrick Lamar	Lamar is from Compton.
   California	Not Like Us	Kendrick Lamar	Ibid.
   Colorado	September	Earth, Wind & Fire	Several members of the band are from Denver.
   Connecticut	Signed, Sealed, Delivered	Stevie Wonder	Thematically appropriate to the task at hand; it was one of Barack Obama's campaign theme songs.
   Democrats Abroad	Love Train	The O'Jays	Thematically appropriate to the task at hand.
   Washington D.C.	Let me Clear my Throat	DJ Kool	Kool was born in D.C.
   Delaware	Higher Love	Whitney Houston and Kygo	Thematically appropriate to the task at hand.
   Florida	Won't Back Down	Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers	Petty was born in Gainesville; it was one of Hillary Clinton's campaign theme songs.
   Georgia	Turn Down for What	DJ Snake and Lil Jon	Jon was born in Atlanta.
   Guam	Espresso	Sabrina Carpenter	Unclear, though it was a hit song, and Guam does produce a lot of coffee.
   Hawaii	24K Magic	Bruno Mars	Mars was born in Honolulu.
   Idaho	Private Idaho	The B-52s	The song is about Idaho (the B-52s are from Atlanta).
   Illinois	Sirius	Alan Parsons Project	This was the longtime walk-on music for the Chicago Bulls, who play in the arena where the DNC is being held.
   Indiana	Don't Stop til You Get Enough	Michael Jackson	Jackson was born in Gary, IN.
   Iowa	Celebration	Kool & the Gang	Thematically appropriate to the task at hand; the most famous band from Iowa, Slipknot, was presumably not a great fit.
   Kansas	Carry on Wayward Son	Kansas	Kansas is, of course, from Kansas (specifically, Topeka).
   Kentucky	First Class	Jack Harlow	Harlow was born in Louisville.
   Louisiana	All I Do Is Win	DJ Khaled	Khaled was born in New Orleans.
   Maine	Shut Up and Dance	WALK THE MOON	Thematically appropriate to the task at hand... we guess.
   Maryland	Respect	Aretha Franklin	Thematically appropriate to the task at hand. Really, they should probably have gone with a song from Marylander Billie Holiday.
   Massachusetts	I'm Shipping Up to Boston	Dropkick Murphys	Dropkick Murphys are the most Boston band ever, even more so than Boston.
   Michigan	Lose Yourself	Eminem	Eminem was born in Detroit. So was Kid Rock, by the way, but there was no chance he was going to be picked.
   Minnesota	Kiss and 1999	Prince	Prince was born in Minneapolis. This means they took a pass on Bob Dylan, though.
   Mississippi	Twistin' the Night Away	Sam Cooke	Cook was born in Clarksdale, MS.
   Missouri	Good Luck, Babe	Chappell Roan	Roan was born in Willard, MO.
   Montana	American Woman	Lenny Kravitz	Thematically appropriate to the task at hand; the most famous musician from Montana, Hoyt Axton, is probably a bit too old.
   Nebraska	Firework	Katy Perry	Thematically appropriate to the task at hand... we guess.
   Nevada	Mr. Brightside	The Killers	The band is from Las Vegas.
   New Hampshire	Don't Stop Believin'	Journey	Thematically appropriate to the task at hand.
   New Jersey	Born in the U.S.A.	Bruce Springsteen	Springsteen, born in Long Branch, NJ, is the most New Jersey musician ever, even more so than Frank Sinatra.
   New Mexico	Confident	Demi Lovato	Lovato is from Albuquerque.
   New York	Empire State of Mind	Jay-Z and Alicia Keys	Both artists were born in New York City.
   North Carolina	Raise Up	Petey Pablo	Pablo was born in Greenville, NC.
   North Dakota	Girl on Fire	Alicia Keys	Thematically appropriate to the task at hand.
   Northern Mariana Islands	Ain't No Mountain High Enough	Marvin Gaye and Tammi Terrell	Thematically appropriate to the task at hand.
   Ohio	Green Light	John Legend ft. André 3000	Legend was born in Springfield, OH.
   Oklahoma	Ain't Goin Down (Til The Sun Comes Up)	Garth Brooks	Brooks was born in Tulsa.
   Oregon	Float On	Modest Mouse	Though formed in Washington, the band is now based in Portland.
   Pennsylvania	Motownphilly	Boyz II Men	The band is from Philadelphia.
   Pennsylvania	Black & Yellow	Wiz Khalifa	Khalifa was born in Pittsburgh and is a well-known Steelers fan.
   Puerto Rico	Despacito	Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee	Both artists were born in San Juan, PR.
   Rhode Island	Shake it Off	Taylor Swift	Swift lives in Rhode Island, among other places, and is very popular, as you might have heard.
   South Carolina	Get On Up	James Brown	Brown was born in Barnswell, SC.
   South Dakota	What I Like About You	The Romantics	Thematically appropriate to the task at hand.
   Tennessee	9 to 5	Dolly Parton	Parton was born in Pittman Center, TN.
   Texas	TEXAS HOLD 'EM	Beyoncé	The song is about Texas, sort of.
   Utah	Animal	Neon Trees	The band was formed in Provo, UT.
   Vermont	Stick Season	Noah Kahan	Kahan is from Strafford, VT.
   U.S. Virgin Islands	VI to the Bone	Mic Love	Love was born in the Virgin Islands; the song is about the Virgin Islands.
   Virginia	The Way I Are	Timbaland ft. Keri Hilson and D.O.E.	Timbaland was born in Norfolk, VA.
   Washington	Can't Hold Us	Macklemore and Ryan Lewis	The artists were born in Kent, WA, and Spokane, WA, respectively.
   West Virginia	Take Me Home (Country Roads)	John Denver	It's the official state song of West Virginia.
   Wisconsin	Jump Around	House of Pain	The song is played at University of Wisconsin football games.
   Wyoming	I Gotta Feeling	Black Eyed Peas	Thematically appropriate to the task at hand... we guess.

   
   There you have it. We assume there was some amount of central planning to make sure that things kept rockin' for the entire hour (or so), and that many different sorts of music and musicians were represented. In any event, it was very effective, and is another thing we expect will be repeated at future conventions.
   
   
2. Trump on the Obamas: Donald Trump has now seen the Obamas' speeches from Day Two; he shared his response with the crowd at his first outdoor rally since the assassination attempt. "Did you see Barack Hussein Obama last night taking little shots? He was taking shots at your president and so was Michelle," Trump said. He also wondered if this gives him license to also "get personal." Ok, then.
   
   
3. Stirring the Pot, v2.0: The Trump campaign and the right-wing media continue to search for ways to try to generate some negativity about the Democrats. To explain our thoughts on the first of the two big lines of attack that emerged yesterday, let us tell a brief story. When (Z)'s father died, he was intestate. (Z) was placed in charge of his estate by a judge, that made (Z) the administrator of the estate. This is the exact same thing as an executor, except that an executor is named in a will, and an administrator is named by a judge.
   
   Naturally, (Z) had to deal with a lot of banks and other such entities, usually working with departments with names like "Decedent Beneficiaries Team." And you wouldn't believe it, but most of them had no idea what an administrator is. Surely, (Z)'s father can't be the first person in human history to die intestate, right? And yet, the people whose job it is to deal with these sorts of things EVERY DAY acted as if (Z) was speaking Martian when he said he was administrator of the estate, and said they could only deal with the executor. So, (Z) got in the habit of identifying himself as the executor, which wasn't actually correct, but was close enough, and saved time.
   
   And now, the latest Tim Walz "scandal," which J.D. Vance is trying to squeeze for all it's worth. Everyone knows that Walz' kids were born via IVF. Except, as it turns out, they weren't. They were born via intrauterine insemination (IUI). This is a less invasive form of treatment that is generally a stepping stone to IVF. That is to say, if IUI works, great. If not, then IVF is up next.
   
   We don't mean to be apologists for anyone, but this feels a lot like the executor/administrator thing. Everyone knows what IVF is, and everyone knows what an executor is. Meanwhile, many fewer people know what IUI us, and many fewer people know what an estate administrator is. If Walz used the exact correct terminology, then he would have to give mini-lecture after mini-lecture about IUI, and how it differs from IVF.
   
   Now, there is a way in which the two treatments are substantively different. IVF generally results in extra embryos, while IUI does not. So, the objections that the anti-IVF people have may not apply to IUI. On the other hand, there's an important way they are not substantively different. IVF and IUI are done by the same medical professionals, and if one goes the way of the dodo, the other probably will as well. So, is Walz really guilty here of a serious falsehood? We don't think so, but readers can reach their own conclusions.
   
   Meanwhile, the other line of attack launched yesterday was against... Doug Emhoff's daughter (and thus, Kamala Harris' stepdaughter). The complaint is kind of... well, weird, and a bit hard to parse. However, this tweet is representative:
   
   
   
   Note a couple of things. First, Ella Emhoff is gainfully employed (as a model and fashion designer), is in a stable romantic relationship (and with a man, so it's not that), and is a college graduate. Second, you can go find other tweets from right wingers, and they do not make any clearer what the issue is.
   
   As far as we can tell, the "nightmare" is that she wore a sleeveless shirt to the DNC, with the result that you can see her tattoos. Whatever it is, right-wing social media types were going nuts about it. Our guess is that 99.99% of parents, even if they don't like tattoos, would be delighted if their child, at age 25, was independent, educated, and in a line of work that makes them happy. Very odd.
   
   
4. The FCIC: Those readers who don't like sports analogies will have to forgive us, because we're going to be making use of two baseball analogies in this item. Here comes the first one. When baseball players retire, they must wait for 5 years, and then they have up to 10 years to be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. If a player fails to get 5% of the vote in any of those 19 years, or if they reach the end of the 10 years and have never received enough votes to be elected (75%), then they can't be inducted through this mechanism.
   
   However, there is still a bit of hope. To make sure nobody slips through the cracks, the Hall of Fame convenes "veterans'" committees of various sorts (the specific names of the committees are constantly changing). The committees meet and consider the Hall of Fame cases of, usually, a dozen players who have been retired for at least 15 years. These committees don't go to the trouble of meeting only to do nothing. So, they almost always elect at least one player, even if that player is not really worthy. If you look for a list of the least worthy players in the Hall of Fame (there are thousands of such lists on the Internet), pretty much all of them were chosen by one of the veterans' committees.
   
   What does this have to do with the Convention? Well, yesterday we saw an item about something we had already been thinking; the headline is "The fact-checking industrial complex." As with the RNC, the various outlets that do fact-checking (CNN, The Washington Post, Politifact, etc.) have deployed an army of fact-checkers to report on the DNC.
   
   There is no doubt that the people who appear on stage during a political convention should be held to account, and kept honest. However, it is also the case that some people (and some political parties) are far more dishonest than others. Further, no fact-checker is going to file, as their story, "Sorry, it all seemed pretty good to me." Nor are they going to stop at one or two items. No, like those Hall of fame veterans' committees, they are going to find 2,000 words' worth of fact-checking to justify their time and effort, even if they have to pick some real nits.
   
   The net result, and this is the point made by the linked article, is that we end up with a backdoor form of bothsidesism, where the whopping lies of the Republicans and the little white lies of the Democrats are effectively presented as equivalent. This lets the various outlets perform "fairness," but it also misrepresents the facts on the ground. There is no way that "Venezuela is sending all of its violent criminals to the U.S." is in the same ballpark as "My wife and I used IVF."
   
   We are not sure what the fix is here. Maybe all outlets should adopt a rating system, like the one The Washington Post has, where falsehoods are given relative ratings. "The Democrats told six 'one Pinocchio' lies and one 'three Pinocchios' lie, while the Republicans told three 'three Pinocchios' lies and four 'five Pinocchios' lies" would at least create SOME distinction between the two.
   
   
5. Diversity, v3.0: The emphasis on diversity continued, of course, on Day Three. The great majority of the speakers and performers were non-white. There were a bunch more Republicans (again, diversity of thought) talking about why they just can't support Donald Trump anymore. The invocation was handled by a Hindu (Sri Rakesh Bhatt) and a bishop from The House of the Lord Churches (Leah D. Daughtry), the benediction was done by a Christian pastor (William Emmanuel Hall) and a fellow who follows elements of both Hinduism and Sikhism (Tahil Sharma). If the Democrats don't invite a priest of the Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster to appear tonight, they are missing out on a real opportunity. We would also accept a Jedi knight.
   
   There are a couple of distinctive things to note about Day Three on the diversity front. First, we expected that at least one day would have a heavy dose of LGBTQ equality, and Day Three was it. There were a number of LGBTQ speakers, and several videos that touched on the subject, including a brief interview with two lesbians who were the first gay people to become legally married in California. Also, Michigan AG Dana Nessel (D), who is a lesbian, delivered an address in which she held up her left hand and advised Republicans that they can "pry this wedding band from my cold, dead, gay hand."
   
   Second, we've had some e-mails asking why the DNC's diversity seems to include so few Asians. There are two answers to that question. The less harsh one is that there are fewer prominent Asian politicians to choose from, as compared to Latinos and, especially, Black officeholders. There are only two Asian-American senators, and one of those (Tammy Duckworth, D-IL) did speak. There are only 17 Asian-American members of Congress. There are no sitting Asian-American governors.
   
   The more harsh answer is that, in the end, Asian-American voters aren't as important to the Democrats' hopes as Latino and Black voters are. People of Asian descent make up about 6% of the population, as compared to 19% for Latinos and 12% for Black Americans. Further, that 6% tends to be concentrated in states like Hawaii, California, New York and Washington, which are all in the bag for the Democrats.
   
   That said, it appears that the folks running the DNC are sensitive to this concern, and tried to do something about it on Day Three. Non-politician Asian-Americans who were on the bill last night included Bhatt and Sharma, activist Mini Timmaraju and actress Mindy Kaling. Politician Asian-Americans included Cincinnati mayor Aftab Pureval (D), Rep. Grace Meng (D-NY) and Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ).
   
   
6. Tears: Yesterday, we wondered why the Democrats seem to have the lion's share of high-quality speakers. We will share some ideas from readers tomorrow; for now, let us remind everyone that one of our theories is that the Democrats (in contrast to many Republicans) really believe what they are saying, and it shows. There was abundant evidence of the first part of that last night, as there were a number of occasions where a major participant in the convention was brought to tears. We'll point out the three most notable.
   
   First, Day Three Chair Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) took the stage at the start of the proceedings, and was very emotional as he told the conventioneers that his longtime colleague, Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-NJ) passed away yesterday morning. Pascarell had been ill for months; his death brought an end to a long and successful career. Second, one of two or three speeches in the running for "speech of the night" (along with Tim Walz and Pete Buttigieg) was the barnburner delivered by Oprah Winfrey. The TV mogul got misty-eyed when she talked about Civil Rights activist Tessie Prevost Williams, and then again when she noted that Kamala Harris, the daughter of two immigrants, could be elected president. Third, during Tim Walz' speech, he paused to recognize his family, and his two kids, especially his son, burst into tears. Pictures of Gus Walz are already all over social media, courtesy of folks who found that moment touching.
   
   
7. Our Celebrities Are Better than Your Celebrities, v2.0: The star power that the Democrats are able to command remains very impressive. We already mentioned Oprah Winfrey and Mindy Kaling. Others who made an appearance last night include Maren Morris, Stevie Wonder (who was in fine form for a man in his mid-seventies), Kenan Thompson and John Legend and Shiela E. Morris, who is well known for her pro-LGBTQ activism, performed a song. Wonder gave a speech and also performed a song. Thompson brought out the giant Project 2025 book that many DNC speakers are using as a prop (starting with State Sen. Mallory McMorrow, D-MI, on Monday) and did a sketch where he talked with people who would be affected by the implementation of Project 2025. Legend and E did a cover of Prince's "Let's Go Crazy."
   
   We don't know if people's votes are being directly influenced by the presence of these famous people (although with Oprah, maybe...). However, we do know that the chance to see these folks (or just to be surprised) is going to get some people to tune in (or to watch on social media). And once you have the eyeballs, then you can share some thoughts about the Democratic Party, its ideas and its candidates. The Day Two ratings are in, incidentally; 20.8 million people tuned in. That's 2 days in a row where the blue team outdrew the equivalent day for the red team by about 2 million people.
   
   
8. The 800-Pound Gorilla(s): The Democrats know what issues are, according to polls, liabilities for them. And they've decided not to run away from them. So, last night, Jon Polin and Rachel Goldberg, whose son Hersh is among the hostages being held by Hamas, took the stage. They insisted that the Biden administration is "working tirelessly" to try to bring peace to Gaza, but that it's an incredibly difficult and complicated situation, and that what is happening is tragic for everyone involved. Goldberg was another who burst into tears, incidentally; in her case, while the crowd chanted "Bring them home! Bring them home!"
   
   Later in the proceedings, there was an extended segment on border security that included a video as well as remarks on the subject from Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-TX), Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), Sheriff Javier Salazar of Bexar County, TX and Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-CA). They all made the point once, or twice, or maybe 20 times that the Senate had hammered a bipartisan border security bill out (recall, Murphy was the lead negotiator for the Democrats) but that Donald Trump torpedoed it. Their conclusion was that Trump doesn't really care about border security, he's just using the issue to get elected.
   
   We don't know if anyone will find these segments to be persuasive. In particular, the pro-Gaza protestors are not terribly likely to be satisfied by what Polin and Goldberg had to say. That said, in good news for the Democrats, the number of protesters outside the United Center has been far smaller than expected, and there has only been one act of (minor) violence (a fence was torn down). Looks like it won't be a repeat of Chicago 1968.
   
   
9. He's Still Got It: Time for baseball analogy #2. In the 1970s, Nolan Ryan brought the heat like no other pitcher in the major leagues. He could top 100 mph with his pitches at a time when that was essentially unheard of. In fact, for decades, he was the Guinness Book of World Records record-holder for "fastest pitch ever thrown," for a pitch thrown on August 22, 1974.
   
   Ryan pitched until he was 46, retiring in 1993. Was the Nolan Ryan of the 1990s capable of doing what the Nolan Ryan of the 1970s could do? No, he was not. But it turns out that even a diminished Nolan Ryan was still better than 98% of the pitchers in the league.
   
   We say that as entreé to our comments on the speech from Bill Clinton. At 78 years of age, he no longer has his fastest fastball. In particular, his voice is much weaker than it once was. But even at 95% or 90% capacity, he's still got a whole bunch of that Clinton magic. As with Barack Obama on Tuesday, Clinton started by complimenting his wife's speech. There may just be some subtext running through the DNC about which party is truly the party of family values.
   
   After the niceties, Clinton rolled up his sleeves (metaphorically, not literally) and got to work. He had a fair bit of substantive material to get to; the most notable bit of substance was when he talked about job creation under Democratic and Republican presidents since the end of the Cold War. He told the crowd that he could not believe this statistic was true, but that he'd triple-checked it. And then he dropped it on the crowd: Since the U.S.S.R. fell, the U.S. has created 51 million new jobs. And the "scoreboard," as he put it, is... Democrats 50 million, Republicans 1 million. This revelation brought the crowd to their feet.
   
   It is very hard to believe that stat is correct, but it's also the case that Clinton would never have set it up that way if it was inaccurate, since he knew he'd be fact-checked six ways to Sunday. And indeed, in an illustration of what we talked about above, the fact-checkers had to grudgingly concede that Clinton had the right of it. CNN, for example, wrote that the "claim is true" BUT that it depends on exactly when you consider each president's term to have started, and that depending on the dates you use, it might actually be Democrats 50 million, Republicans 2 million. Well, that certainly undermines his point, right? CNN also observed that the claim depends on context, and that you have to remember that during the terms of the various Democratic presidents, the economy was doing really well. Again, certainly undermines his point, right?
   
   Clinton also came prepared with some zingers. He took a few shots at Donald Trump, of course; the best of those was: "Two days ago, I turned 78. The oldest man in my family who is still living. And the only personal vanity I want to assert is that I'm still younger than Donald Trump." Fortunately for Clinton, that will always be true. Other bits of humor were directed inward, like when the former president, referring to Harris' college-years job at McDonald's, said: "I will be so happy when [Kamala Harris] actually enters the White House as president because she will break my record as the president who spent the most time at McDonald's." It brought to mind one of the great SNL sketches of the 1990s.
   
   Clinton reportedly re-wrote his speech after watching the first day of the convention. And yes, the person running the teleprompter loaded the correct version of the speech. Nonetheless, Clinton clearly went off-script several times, and started freestyling. Again, he's still got it.
   
   Among other politicians who spoke, Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-VA) isn't a great public speaker, but her address was very capable. And the rising superstar of the night was Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg. It's no secret he knows his way around a microphone, but if anyone forgot, he reminded them last night that he is a heck of a stage presence. His problem is finding rungs on the ladder that he can climb to in anticipation of a presidential bid in 2028 or 2032 or 2036.
   
   
10. Walz and Bridges: Tim Walz has the same job as his Republican counterpart, and that is to connect with the everyman and everywoman voters. And it is abundantly clear to us that Walz is far better at this than J.D. Vance is. First, Walz never sold out his people the way Vance did. Second, Walz has not spent the last 10-15 years living a life of wealth and privilege (he doesn't even have a 401k). Third, Walz comes off as more genuine than Vance does. Fourth, Walz is just more likable.
    
    All of these things were on display before and during Walz' speech. There was a video about his background and his career; it heavily featured a bunch of his former students, who clearly love him dearly. They also brought out several of Walz' former football players to serve as his escort, of sorts, as he walked on stage. And after all the stagecraft, it was time for the Governor to do his thing. It just cannot be easy to go up there, following all of these people—Oprah, the Clintons, the Obamas, Joe Biden, etc.—who have crushed it over the last several nights. But he delivered. His speech, like so many of the others, was substantive, charming, funny, touching, etc. There are some politicians that are just inherently likable. Ronald Reagan was one, Bill Clinton is another, Colin Powell was a third. Walz is in that group, and that's a very good thing for a politician.
    
    We will admit that we sometimes have trouble parsing Walz' Midwestern accent. At one point, he decreed: "There'll be time to sleep when you're dead." We initially heard it as "There'll be time to sleep with your dad," and were shocked that he would make such an off-color remark at the expense of Ivanka Trump. But it's OK, because he didn't actually say that. We backed the video up and checked.

That's three days of conventioneering, and they've all been successful. Can the blue team go 4-for-4? Given that the star attraction takes her turn tonight, you have to like their chances. (Z)