Aug.22

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Voters in Alaska, Wyoming and Florida Cast Their Ballots

Why would a state hold a primary on the same day as a political convention? We don't know, but three states did it yesterday. Is it a coincidence that all three states are run by Republicans, who might like to take a little tiny bit of thunder away from the DNC? Maybe, maybe not. We do know there were no primaries the week of the RNC. Anyhow, here are the most notable results from yesterday:

• U.S. Senate, Florida: As expected, Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL) easily dispatched her challengers, taking 68.5% of the vote. She will now face off against Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), who dispatched HIS challengers with 84.4% of the vote. Scott is a terrible campaigner and, to be blunt, a terrible human being. He will hope that incumbency and Florida's purple-but-mostly-red color will provide him with the insurance he needs against the abortion amendment and potential Kamala Harris coattails. Do keep in mind that his LARGEST margin of victory in three previous statewide runs was 1.07%, and that he won by only 0.13% in 2018 when facing a somewhat weak opponent (Bill Nelson).
  
  
• U.S. Senate, Wyoming: Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY), who is potentially in line to become Senate Majority Leader/Senate Minority Leader John Barrasso, easily outpaced two challengers with 67.9% of the vote. Scott Morrow (D) didn't even have to campaign, as he was unopposed. There's no need to hit the road now; campaign or no, he's going to get crushed by Barrasso in November.
  
  
• U.S. House, AK-AL: Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) won this R+8 seat in 2022, in part, because she's a talented politician who is very good at reaching across the aisle. And she won it, in part, because she was up against an obnoxious opponent in Sarah Palin. Now, Peltola will hope that incumbency and her track record will make up for the fact that she's not up against Sarah Palin this time. Two of her opponents will be Republicans; Nick Begich, who took 27.2% of the vote, and Nancy Dahlstrom, who took 20.3%. The fourth candidate will probably also be a Republican; there are a couple of them hovering at 0.5% of the vote. Peltola, for her part, took 50.1%, so if this was the general election, she would have won outright, without needing to process the ranked-choice ballots.
  
  
• U.S. House, FL-01: Despite pretty aggressive gerrymandering, Florida has six districts that are reasonably competitive. FL-01, at R+19, is not one of those. It's the western portion of the panhandle that is currently represented by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL). And... it will continue to be represented by Gaetz, who beat his non-crazy Republican challenger by 45 points, 72.6% to 27.4%. Clearly, the voters of FL-01 like crazy. Gaetz will try to use this district as a springboard to become Florida's next crazy governor.
  
  
• U.S. House, FL-07: At R+5, FL-07 is on the outer boundary of "competitive." Rep. Cory Mills (R-FL) found out last night that his opponent will be entrepreneur and community organizer Jennifer Adams (D). We would tend to assume that a woman, running in Florida in the year 2024, would have abortion, abortion and abortion as her top three issues. Apparently not, in this case. Her website says nothing about... any issue, while her Ballotpedia candidate statement talks about protecting families through better childcare and preventing child abuse. Maybe that's the better messaging in a district that's pretty red.
  
  
• U.S. House, FL-13: At R+6, this district is ostensibly a bit less competitive than FL-07. However, the incumbent, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL), is a show horse. Sometimes, Republican voters like that (see Gaetz, Matt; Greene, Marjorie Taylor). Sometimes, some Republican voters don't approve (see Boebert, Lauren). The person who will try to figure out which category the GOP voters of FL-13 are in is Whitney Fox, a moderate Democrat with a background in public transit who defeated two challengers with 57.9% of the vote. Fox says her top priorities are affordable healthcare and reproductive freedom. So, maybe abortion access isn't a loser in a red Florida district.
  
  
• U.S. House, FL-15: Rep. Laurel Lee (R-FL) represents this R+4 district; she had a minor scare when Donald Trump turned against her and recruited an opponent. But then, perhaps reading the writing on the wall, he flipped back to Lee. Gotta keep that batting average up, you know. In any event, Lee got 72.3% of the vote, as compared to the 18.1% that Trump recruit James Judge got. The Democrat in the race is Hillsborough County Commissioner Pat Kemp, who was unopposed. Kemp is building her campaign on reproductive freedom, saving Social Security and Medicare, and healthcare costs. We sense some recurring themes here.
  
  
• U.S. House, FL-25: And now, a district that is barely competitive in the other direction, the D+5 FL-25. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) easily won her primary, with 83.2% of the vote. Her opponent will be Chris Eddy, an Air Force veteran and former FBI official. All you need to know, we would say, is that Eddy has been endorsed by Michael Flynn.
  
  
• U.S. House, FL-27: By the numbers, the EVEN FL-27 is the most competitive district in Florida. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL) lost a nail-biter in 2018, and then won nail-biters in 2020 and 2022. She's a moderate, to the extent that's possible in the modern GOP, though she's got some new baggage in the form of possible stock trading that benefited from insider information. Challenging Salazar will be educator Lucia Baez-Geller (D), who is, like Salazar, of Cuban descent. That matters in a district that covers much of Miami. Baez-Geller is going to make better, and more accessible, education the cornerstone of her campaign.
  
  
• U.S. House, FL-28: Another competitive district, at R+2. Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-FL) will try to win election for a third time, facing off against Navy veteran Phil Ehr (D). Ehr is very Blue Doggy in some ways (he says border control is a priority) but he's pretty lefty in some ways (gun control, abortion access). The DCCC will spend a few million here to try to get Ehr elected.
  
  
• State Attorney, Tampa: Technically, this is Florida's 13th Judicial Circuit, but it is basically the city of Tampa and its suburbs. Andrew Warren, the State Attorney who was fired by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), easily won renomination for his old job, with 70% of the vote. Warren won his first election, in 2016, by a slim margin of 0.88%. He won the second one, in 2020, by almost 6%. Our guess is that Democrats will turn out in large numbers for the opportunity to poke DeSantis in the eye, and Warren will improve on that 2020 result. Then, DeSantis will probably fire him again.

Oklahoma is up next, on Tuesday, if you count primary election runoffs. If you don't, then it's Massachusetts, which will be choosing candidates for the House and Senate on September 3. Inasmuch as the Bay State hasn't sent a Republican to the lower chamber since 1994, and has sent just one Republican to the upper chamber since 1978 (and that was in a wonky special election), the Massachusetts primary is de facto the general election. (Z)