Aug.20
electoral-vote.com
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Info/banners.html
Dem 51
image description
   
GOP 49
image description

DNC, Day One: Off to a Running Start

The Democrats commenced their conventioneering in Chicago last night. And while there was a hiccup here and a hiccup there, party members have to be thrilled with the way things started.

Before we get to our thoughts on yesterday's soiree, a few reminders about our approach, which is the same as we used for the RNC:

  1. We take our notes, and write up our comments without exposure to any outside input (reader e-mails, reader reports from the convention, pundit commentary, etc.). This means it is entirely plausible that our remarks will be very similar to the reader reports (see below).

  2. When referring to a specific speech, the subject header is a link to the moment where the speech commenced. For example, if you click on "We Love Joe!" below, it will take you to the start of Joe Biden's speech.

  3. We pick the 10 things we think are most useful/interesting to talk about. Hopefully, that represents a sweet spot between "not substantive enough" and "not overdoing it."

  4. To the extent this is possible, we discuss things in the order they happened.

If you care to watch Day One, you can do so here:



For the RNC, we amused ourselves by posting videos of paint drying, etc., because conventions tend to be so boring. We don't want to use the same bit twice, so instead we're going to post scavenger hunt responses each day (see below) for those who need a little diversion.

And now, on with the show:

  1. Behind Schedule: Yesterday's session was supposed to last about 5 hours. It ended up clocking in at a little over 6, which means that nearly everyone spoke at a later time than was originally announced. In particular, Joe Biden's keynote address began about an hour late.

    This is not too surprising, and we will share two thoughts we had once it was clear that the blue team had fallen off the pace. First, (Z)'s lectures tend to be made up of roughly five individual (but related) segments. Each is supposed to take about 20 minutes. Sometimes, they clock in at 20. Sometimes they take 15 minutes. Sometimes they take 40. These are lectures he's delivered a hundred times.

    Second, to reference this show and this person for the second time in 4 days, Lorne Michaels has been producing Saturday Night Live for 45 years (including the last 40 consecutively). He literally has no choice but to bring in each live episode at 90:00. No 89:45, no 90:15. With his vast experience, he's pretty good at it. Nonetheless, about one episode in three requires some padding at the end, wherein the host has to improvise 15-45 seconds of patter. And about one episode in three sees a sketch cut for time (the dress rehearsal version is often posted to NBC's website).

    The point here is that even if you've done this a hundred times before, it's very, very hard to hit the bullseye on timing. Add in the fact that the Democratic National Committee has rather less control over the speakers than (Z) has over his lectures or Michaels has over his cast. Add in the fact that we're talking a runtime double or triple that of a lecture or a Saturday Night Live episode. Add in the fact that the Democrats had to re-jigger everything with less than a month's warning. Point is, we don't think the Democrats' time management is a big deal. We suspect some people in the media will disagree, though.

    We did have one complaint about the production, however. The background noise was loud enough that it made it seem like the crowd was talking during the speakers, rather than paying attention. Perhaps they can fix this with better mixing.

  2. Rainbow Coalition: At the RNC, they brought out the usual suspects—Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), Nikki Haley, etc.—to make the point that the Republican Party is not just the party of white people. We don't know how persuasive that messaging was, especially since it's always the same handful of minority Republicans every time.

    In any event, the Democrats did not want to leave any doubt as to their claim to be the party that embraces diversity. Here, for example, are the first 15 people/groups to appear on stage yesterday:

    Person/Group Who Are They? Reason for Appearing Ethnicity
    Jaime Harrison and Minyon Moore Democratic Party Chair, Democratic Convention Chair Open the convention Black, Black
    Blase J. Cupich Archbishop of Chicago Invocation White
    Lorrie Melchior and Zach Pahmahmie Potawotomi Nation Tribal Council Members Welcome conventioneers to Native homelands Native American, Native American
    William Harrison, Charles Harrison Jaime Harrison's kids Pledge of Allegiance Black, Black
    Soul Children of Chicago Choir National Anthem Black
    Brandon Johnson Mayor of Chicago Welcome conventioneers to Chicago Black
    Peggy Flanagan Lieutenant Governor of Minnesota and Democratic Convention Co-Chair Honor past generations of activists Native American
    Maxine Waters Democratic Representative from California Represent past generations of activists Black
    Derrick Johnson and Melanie Campbell NAACP president, National Coalition on Black Civic Participation President Represent current generations of activists Black, Black
    Jesse Jackson Presidential candidate and Rainbow Coalition founder Represent past generations of activists Black
    Marcia Fudge and James Roosevelt Credentials Committee co-chairs Formally approve everyone's credentials Black, white
    Leah Daughtry Rules Committee co-chair Formally approve convention rules Black
    Regina Romero, Mitch Landrieu Platform Committee co-chairs Formally approve party platform Latina, white
    Lauren Underwood Democratic Representative from Illinois Talk about Democrats' record on COVID Black
    Robert Garcia Democratic Representative from California Talk about Republicans' record on COVID Latino


    We could easily have gone to 30 or 40, but we cut it off at 15 because that's more than enough to make the point—the DNC wasn't even an hour old, and the blue team had already out-diversed the red team by a factor of two or three. And, just in case anyone watching did not get the message, at least half of the people listed above made specific mention of the Democrats' diversity, inclusiveness, history with civil rights, etc.

    Although racial diversity was highlighted—presumably that was the point of the night's theme, which was "We the People"—the "Big Tent" was reflected in other ways. For example, Brian Wallach, who is living with ALS, spoke to the crowd, aided by his wife Sandra Abrevaya. Nobody said so directly, but the appearance presented a clear contrast to Donald Trump's mockery of a disabled reporter back in 2016.

    We tend to assume that at least some of the people who appeared on stage last night are LGBTQ, but that's harder to discern, unless their sexuality is already publicly known. It's also possible that there will be an LGBTQ segment during one of the next couple of days—maybe bring out Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), Gov. Jared Polis (D-CO) and Barney Frank, something like that. Possibly Danica Roem, too, though the Democrats might not want to go there, given that trans is a bridge too far for even many Democrats.

  3. Be-Laboring the Point: At this point, the speech that Teamsters president Shawn O'Brien delivered to the RNC is pretty famous. Perhaps also infamous. He contacted the Democratic National Committee and told them he was willing to speak at the DNC, but you can't praise one party's nominee and then expect to be welcomed by the other party. So, the Democrats did not return O'Brien's call.

    As with the diversity, however, the blue team wanted to leave no doubt as to their claim to be the pro-labor party. So, they had half a dozen leaders of major unions come out together, while the crowd held up "Union, Yes!" signs. The six, in case you are interested, are:


    The sextet represents about 18 million people between them, with the AFL-CIO alone making up about two-thirds of that.

    Later in the evening, UAW President (and Biden/Harris superfan) Shawn Fain got the stage all to himself, and gave a fiery speech in which he repeatedly referred to Donald Trump as a scab. Fain's about as likely to get an invite to the next RNC as O'Brien is to get an invite to the next DNC. Oh, and speaking of O'Brien, the Teamsters still got representation last night, as some of the Democrats' videos featured rank-and-file members of the union talking about why union members should vote Democratic. We note this just in case you were wondering if the snub of O'Brien was personal. (Hint: It was.)

  4. Our Celebrities Are Better Than Your Celebrities: Whatever convention goes second is always, to some extent, an exercise in counter-programming whichever convention went first. The Republicans made a point of highlighting Trump-loving celebrities, particularly on the fourth day of their convention. The problem is that there aren't that many Trumpy celebrities, and the ones who do exist are mostly Social Security-eligible.

    In any event, given that the Democrats really want the votes of the kiddies, and that young folks are probably a bit more susceptible to celebrity opinion, and that there are way more celebrity Democrats, last night featured a long list of celebrities who spoke, or hosted, or were seen in the audience. Among them:


    The list will grow over the next several days, as each night is set to have at least one celebrity host and one celebrity speaker. Personally, we are holding out for Bob and Doug McKenzie.

    There is talk of a surprise appearance from Beyoncé or Taylor Swift, but this appears to be wishcasting. Swift, in particular, would have to spread herself pretty thin to make it to Chicago (she has a concert in London tonight). Also, DNC operatives reportedly told reporters that a person with the star power of those two women could take away too much attention from Harris. Could just be misdirection, but we doubt it.

  5. Rising Stars: One of the purposes of the convention is to identify potential up-and-comers for the next 10 years. A person can overcome a bad speech (see: Clinton, Bill in 1988), but they can also be propelled rapidly upward by a great speech (see: Obama, Barack in 2004).

    It's not exactly a keen insight to say that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) is a Democrat on the rise. However, her speech reminded everyone that she's really good at this. It's not going to be easy for someone as lefty as AOC to move up the ranks, but a Nancy Pelosi-like career seems very plausible.

    Another rising star from last night was state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-MI), who is best known for her speech on the floor of the Michigan House in which she took her Republican colleagues to task over spurious accusations that she (McMorrow) is a pedophile/groomer. Last night, her job was to talk about the evils of Project 2025, and she did a good job of it, using an enormous book with Project 2025 on the cover as a prop. She implied that she'll be back tonight (and, perhaps, every night) to talk about Project 2025. We see a gubernatorial run in her future.

    And finally, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) is the member who is known for her meme-worthy sparring with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA). She was was very, very good in her address last night, as she is very witty. It wasn't all jokes, though, as the latter part of her speech went for the heart, and she ended with a tear rolling down her cheek. If ever Texas really does become a purple state, she's going to be a U.S. senator.

  6. Will You Re-Meme-Ber Me?: As we noted yesterday, the Harris/Walz campaign is really trying to emphasize online engagement. The Convention is operating along the same lines. More than 200 social media creators/influencers have been given credentials, and they are being given access to areas typically limited to the traditional press. Each night, at least one influencer will take the stage and speak to the crowd.

    The Democratic Party will also supplant such efforts with their own video presentations. The one that stood out last night was based on the old game "Two liest and a truth," where a person makes three claims about themselves, of which only one is truthful, and people have to guess which statement is not a lie. The blue team's take on this was called "Two Lies and a Lie." We bet you can guess which Republican candidate for president was featured.

    In any case, the clear goal here is to create as many viral moments as is possible. We'll see how well it works.

  7. Surprise Appearance: One of the meme-y videos that the Democrats showed was meant to contrast Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. You know the type—color footage and upbeat music for the "good guy" and black and white footage and angry music for the "bad guy." If the title of this particular video was not "The Felon vs. the Prosecutor," it might as well have been.

    After the video was over, the song "Freedom" by Beyoncé (featuring Kendrick Lamar) played. The careful reader will note that is a song that is actually from the current century. Then, in a semi-surprise, Kamala Harris walked out in person to briefly address the crowd. And the crowd went nuts.

    A candidate is not going to be able to say all that much when they speak for just a couple of minutes. However, Harris was certainly upbeat and charming. There is absolutely no question that female candidates get scrutinized, on a body language/facial expression level, much more closely than male candidates. Harris was flawless on that front (please consider watching it for yourself). She is clearly much better at this than she was 4 years ago. The Democrats' nominee was wearing a tan-colored suit; one has to wonder if that's a little subtle trolling of the right-wing media, given the hissy fit they threw over Barack Obama's tan suit. As chance would have it, the 10th anniversary of that sartorial crisis is next Wednesday.

    Incidentally, one thing that Harris is not doing, and apparently will not do, is talk about the historic nature of her candidacy. First, it's obvious. Second, other people at the DNC are making sure that message is getting across. Third, those who might be leery of too much change don't need to be triggered by the candidate herself.

  8. We're With Her: Hillary Clinton wasn't the star attraction last night (that would be Joe Biden), but she was second-billed. When she walked out, she had to wait 2 minutes to start speaking, while the standing ovation ran its course. Once she commenced her remarks, boy howdy, was she was on fire. You know the old saying about how there is nobody so free as one who has nothing to lose? Well, Clinton is a respected elder Democrat who will never stand for office again. She can say whatever she damn well pleases.

    The first part of her speech was an appreciation of Joe Biden. Thereafter, Clinton spent roughly equal time making the case for Kamala Harris, and absolutely shredding Donald Trump. Her best line was: "[Trump]'s mocking her name and her laugh. Sounds familiar?" She also said: "Just look at the candidates. Kamala cares about kids, families and cares about America. Donald only cares about himself" and described Trump as "the first person to run for president with 34 felony convictions." He is going to blow his stack when he sees or hears about the speech.

  9. Abortion: For the first 4 hours or so, abortion access only got an occasional mention. And then—pow! There was a video about Dobbs followed by three women who came on stage and told their stores (the roughest one was Hadley Duvall, who was raped by her stepfather and impregnated at the age of 12). Thereafter, Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) gave an address on the subject.

    We presume that the subject of abortion access will come up again; there's no way it will be limited to one 10-minute segment on the first night of the Convention. In fact, we assume that abortion access will get a primetime segment on each of the four nights. The themes of the remaining nights are not all that helpful in making a prediction, however; they are: "A Bold Vision for America's Future," "A Fight for Our Freedoms," and "For Our Future." Obviously, abortion fits nicely on Day 3, but it could certainly be a part of the other two.

  10. We Love Joe!: "We Love Joe!" is what the crowd chanted for at least 2 minutes (sometimes alternating with "Thank you, Joe!") when Joe Biden came on stage. The President was brought to tears by this, as well as by his introduction, handled by daughter Ashley Biden. And then, he commenced his 50-minute speech and... he absolutely knocked it out of the park.

    Our view, and we do not say this lightly, is that it was one of the greatest convention speeches of all time. Biden was fiery. He was, at times, self-deprecating, such as when he said that he knows the world's leaders far better than Trump because he (Biden) is so damn old. He spoke in both general and specific terms about why people should not vote for Trump (for example, noting that Trump's platform, if enacted, would cost the average family $3,900 a year in additional taxes). He was emotional, particularly at the start (the tears) and also when he talked about his honor in handing the baton over to Kamala Harris. He was gracious, and asserted credibly that he is not angry about the turn that events took in the last month or two. "I love the job, but I love my country more," he explained.

    Very, very few presidents, having experienced what Biden just experienced, could go out on that stage and show such grace and such strength of character. Among the last 20 or so, maybe Barack Obama, Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford, Harry S. Truman and... that's about it. If this is the last chapter of Biden's public career, he couldn't have written it better.

    Incidentally, as we finished writing this item up, the coverage of the DNC ended, and CNN's talking heads began their "analysis." There were a couple of Republicans on there, one of them a former staffer for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and the other a dimwit in a hokey cowboy costume. Both of them said Biden's speech was a "C, C+ at best." That is absolute nonsense, the kind of pundit garbage that makes it hard to take CNN seriously. We have seen many, many convention speeches. We know what a good speech looks like, and we know what a great speech looks like. This was a great speech, no doubt about it. We will read other assessments once this post goes live, just for curiosity's sake, but we really don't care what they think. We are more than happy to die on this hill—it was a speech for the ages.

The fundamental story of the night, one that runs through most or all of the items above, is enthusiasm. Conventions have numerous purposes—advertise the party and its ideas, take care of business like adopting the platform, etc.—but the single most important purpose these days is to get the grassroots folks fired up so that they go back home and are excited about raising money and knocking on doors and phonebanking and the like.

The 20,000-or-so people who were in Chicago last night were as raucous as any convention crowd in recent memory, at least as far back to Barack Obama's first convention in 2008. The enthusiasm is impossible to miss; if you didn't see the Convention already, watch some of the video we linked to, and see (and hear) for yourself. And so, mission accomplished. We'll see if the Democrats can keep it going for 3 more days. (Z)


This item appeared on www.electoral-vote.com. Read it Monday through Friday for political and election news, Saturday for answers to reader's questions, and Sunday for letters from readers.

www.electoral-vote.com                     State polls                     All Senate candidates