Aug.19

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Three States Hold Primaries Tomorrow

Three states hold primaries tomorrow. One is in the North (Alaska), one is in the South (Florida), and one is kind of in the middle (Wyoming). Here is the lay of the land:

• Alaska: Alaska has a top-four primary system. In the first round (tomorrow), all candidates are listed on the ballot and the top four vote-getters advance to the general election, where ranked-choice voting is used. The biggest prize here is Alaska's lone House seat, currently occupied by Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK). She is on the ballot, obviously. So are Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R) and businessman Nick Begich (R) and nine unknowns. Here's where it gets tricky. Begich has said he will drop out if he finishes behind Dahlstrom, even though, with ranked-choice voting, that really isn't necessary. Democrats are making a big effort to get Gerald Heikes (R) to the November ballot in an effort to split the Republican vote. But with ranked-choice voting, that probably won't help, either. In the end, the final round in November will probably be Peltola vs. Dahlstrom. Alaska is a red state, but Peltola is an incumbent. She is also a Native Alaskan, which may help with some demographic groups in the state. And she's one of the bluest blue dogs, so some independent and Republican voters might plausibly back her.
  
  
• Florida: The biggest race in Florida is the U.S. Senate primary, but we already know the winners: Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) will be nominated for a second term. Former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) will almost certainly be the blue team's nominee. She is a Latina born in Ecuador. There are many Latinos in Florida, and just maybe she stands a chance if a big blue wave washes over the Sunshine State. Which, with global warming, it could. And we mean that on several levels.
  
  Another race that is being closely watched is the Republican primary in FL-01, in the far western part of the panhandle, conveniently located for any congressmen who wish to take underage girls to Alabama. The incumbent, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), led the charge that ousted former speaker Kevin McCarthy. Gaetz is being challenged by Aaron Dimmock, who has ties to McCarthy. If the voters in FL-01 were not keen on Gaetz' challenge to McCarthy, this is their chance for revenge. About $3 million in outside money has poured in supporting Dimmock. If Gaetz survives, he is a shoo-in since the district is R+19. If he is reelected, Gaetz will probably run for governor when DeSantis is term-limited in 2026.
  
  FL-08 is not competitive because the incumbent, Rep. Bill Posey (R-FL), played dirty pool. He got his hand-picked successor, former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos (R), to quietly file for the seat minutes before the filing deadline. Then after the deadline had passed, Posey announced his retirement. This way no other Republican could file. The district is R+11, so Haridopolos will almost certainly win.
  
  

  Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) in FL-13 is more Loony than she is Luna, and five Democrats are vying for the chance to challenge her in November. Whitney Fox has endorsements from the Blue Dog PAC, Planned Parenthood, and multiple Florida Democrats. She also raised $300,000 in Q2. But whoever wins the Democratic primary will have a tough fight in this R+6 district that runs from St. Petersburg up the west coast of Florida up to Tarpon Springs.
  
  Another interesting race is in the Republican-leaning R+4 FL-15 district in the northeastern suburbs of Tampa. Laurel Lee, who was formerly chief of elections in Florida, ran for the seat in 2022 and won. Then in March, Donald Trump decided he didn't like her because she refused to order an audit of the 2020 election in Florida—which Trump won, incidentally. He called for someone to challenge her. James Judge answered the call and filed to run against Lee. Then Trump stabbed him in the back by endorsing Lee anyway. Classic Trump. Lee is probably the favorite.
  
  In SD-25, Alan Grayson (D), a wealthy firebrand who clashed with the Democratic establishment when he was in Congress, is trying for a comeback in the state Senate. Democratic senator Victor Torres is retiring and Grayson wants his seat. He will face the incumbent's wife, Carmen Torres, and also state Rep. Kristen Arrington (D).
  
  There are a couple of oddball primaries in the Sunshine State, as well. In 2022, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) decided that it would be a good election stunt to fire a few elected Democratic officials. The base just eats up authoritarians who decide elections don't matter unless their candidate wins. One of the firees was Tampa D.A. Andrew Warren, who is now running to get his old job back. He is running as a Democrat again, and has a primary opponent in local attorney Elizabeth Strauss. Her platform is that she is a safer bet because DeSantis could remove Warren again. The Florida Constitution makes the governor a mini-dictator with the power to remove state officials if they neglect their duties, and DeSantis has decided to use that power for political gain. DeSantis also suspended the Broward County sheriff and appointed Gregory Tony to replace him. Tony is now running for a full term.
  
  Miami-Dade County is electing its first sheriff since the 1960s (the job was eliminated in 1966 and then reinstated a couple of years ago). Eleven people are running. Rosie Cordero-Stutz (R) has Trump's endorsement.
  
  

• Wyoming: There are intra-GOP fights going on in the Wyoming state House. Some Republican incumbents have been attacked by Freedom Caucus members and are facing far-right challengers. The incumbents include Bob Nicolas (HD-7), Landon Brown (HD-9) and Dan Zwonitzer (HD-43). The FC is also defending fan Rachel Rodriguez-Williams (HD-50) and trying to get more FCers elected in HD-24 and HD-30. The HD-4 race is also interesting as the incumbent doesn't think slavery was such a big deal.

So, there will be a few fireworks, and then that will be it for the month of August. Delaware, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island go in September. Good thing they are holding their primaries before Election Day. Otherwise there would be no time for the general-election campaign. (V)