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For this week only, "DNC" has been redefined as "Democratic National Convention." Starting next week, it reverts to "Democratic National Committee." It's kind of the same thing. A convention is like a committee, only bigger. The last time the Democrats were in Chicago was 1996, when they renominated Bill Clinton in a big love fest. Will this one go as smoothly? We'll let you know on Friday. Or maybe earlier.
This DNC is different from all other recent ones because the expected nominee got swapped in less than a month ago. This changes everything. The convention has been planned for years. The platform, themes, and speakers were all chosen by Joe Biden and his staff. In less than a month, Harris and her staff had to remake the whole event in her image. It is crucial that Harris put her stamp on it, lest the Republicans accuse her of just being warmed-over Biden.
Some of the speakers haven't changed. Barack Obama and Bill Clinton will still get top billing. Obama will speak Tuesday, as will Michelle Obama. Clinton's turn comes Wednesday. Hillary Clinton will also get a prime slot. It may be bittersweet for her because although she may see a woman become president in her lifetime, it won't be her. Still, she was the first woman to get more votes than a male opponent in a presidential contest. Absent her 2016 run, there would have been far more people objecting to Harris as the nominee on the grounds that "no woman could ever get more votes than a man." Hillary showed what was possible, and if she had gotten 79,316 more votes in three states, she would have won. She paved the way for Harris.
All of the speakers now have to rewrite their speeches quickly. Simply praising all the laws Biden signed would have been fine until July 21, but now that won't work. They have to be focused on why Harris is the right person for the moment, not how well Biden governed. No doubt some speakers will get less time than planned and others will get more. In DNC v1.0, Jill Biden would have gotten a large and prominent speaking slot and Doug Emhoff a small and not so prominent one. That's not going to happen now, and their speeches have to be rewritten from scratch. Hopefully, the person in charge of the teleprompter loads the right versions of each person's speeches. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) learned about that problem the hard way at the RNC.
There are probably many speakers who are close to Biden who were told their presence is no longer required and others, people close to Harris, who were suddenly told: "Write a 15-minute speech for the whole country." Some planners are making the analogy: "Same plane, just new pilot." But realistically, it is the same plane, new destination and largely new crew.
One thing that Harris is obviously aware of is that while Biden is personally less than popular, his policies are still very popular, so Harris will emphasize them to show there is continuity. But she can't ignore Biden completely. It wouldn't be the right thing to do and she knows it. The first day will accordingly praise Biden and his policies to the moon. It will also emphasize that he did something personally very difficult for the benefit of the country, while her opponent, Donald Trump, does things only for the benefit of Donald Trump, and on those occasions the country benefits, it is just an accident. Kind of like a broken (analog) clock being right twice a day.
Biden will make the final speech tonight. He will talk about the achievements of their administration and especially about Harris' contributions to it. He will also emphasize the threat Trump presents to democracy and urge voters across the country to save it by voting for Harris. Biden spent the past weekend at Camp David tuning his speech, as it will probably be the one everyone remembers in 10 years. Quick: Which of George Washington's speeches have you even heard of? Most likely, it is his Farewell Address. When Biden's top speechwriters have a hand in his speeches, he can read them from the teleprompter, and he can usually do a good job, as he did at the State of the Union. At the end, he will hand the baton to Harris. From then on, it will be her show, not his. This evening, he is expected to leave Chicago and spend the rest of the week in Southern California so as not to get in her way. It is surely tough for him, but he knows if Harris wins, the history books will treat him very well.
It has been a whirlwind for Harris. She is not all that well known and this is her big chance to introduce herself to the country. Among other things, she has been back to Howard University and other places from her past to shoot footage for a biographical video to be shown at the convention. At the same time, she is doing debate prep and getting to know Coach Walz. She has a lot on her plate, down to small details, like choosing the music. Biden favored songs from Fleetwood Mac, a bunch of 1960s hippies. Harris is surely going to go for something a bit more recent. Music from a year starting in "2" might just make an appearance!
The guest lists also have changed radically. Harris' allies now get the lion's share of tickets. For example, Biden gave Donna Brazile, a Black woman who is a long-time Democratic consultant, five guest tickets. Harris upped that to 40 tickets. The 4,695 delegates chosen before Biden dropped out will be there, but the United Center can be configured to hold 23,500 seats. A few thousand will be elected Democratic officials and party leaders, but that still gives her a fair amount of leeway to invite her own people. Additionally, many people who didn't really want to attend a Bidenfest very much want to attend a Harrisfest. Expect a much more colorful convention than Biden would have had. Also, see below.
Harris very much wants union support and is likely to get it, at least from union leadership. Liz Schuler, president of the AFL-CIO, supports Harris. So do April Verret, president of the Service Employees International Union; Shawn Fain, president of the UAW; and many other union presidents. One holdout is Sean O'Brien, president of the Teamsters Union, who spoke at the RNC last month. But union leaders have only so much sway over their members. They can make the pitch that Harris will help get them better wages, benefits, and working conditions, but if all the members care about is abortion and stuffing gays back into the closet, their pitches may not help much.
Conventions are expensive. Think of all those balloons that will drop down at appropriate moments. Balloons aren't free, you know. The Democrats have raised $94 million for the convention. That can buy a substantial number of balloons.
Another thing the convention does is approve the platform. Donald Trump is mentioned so often in it (150 times) that you would be excused if you thought he was the Democratic candidate. Turns out, he is not. Who knew? Among other items, the platform calls for higher taxes on billionaires, lowering the cost of child care, investing in clean energy, and protecting abortion. It also calls for a two-state solution in the Middle East. It does not call for the United States to halt weapon deliveries to Israel, as many progressives wanted.
The platform is similar to the 2020 platform, but with a few notable changes. There is no reference to Black Lives Matter. There is a call for the president to pardon people with low-level federal convictions for possessing marijuana and support for wiping out some student loan debt. It also asks Congress to study the matter of reparations. That could be a fun topic, starting with whether it applies to Black people not descended from enslaved Americans (like Kamala Harris), how one might prove one's descent from enslaved Americans, and whether people who are 1/8 or 1/16 Black get any money. Such a bill would be a real windfall for genealogists, especially those studying Black family history.
During the primaries, 36 of the 4,695 delegates were elected as uncommitted, meaning they are not controlled by Biden. While the actual roll call vote has already happened, they could still cause trouble. Many of them are pro-Palestinian. Top Democrats have been talking to them for months in an effort to prevent them from disturbing the convention in any way. Some of them want Harris to commit to an arms embargo for Israel. There is no way she would ever do that as it would anger many times as many people. According to sources, the negotiations are currently at an impasse.
The 36 uncommitted delegates pose a risk inside the convention, but there is a much bigger one outside it: the scheduled pro-Palestinian protests. Will they get violent? Will they get much attention? One thing that is virtually certain is that there will not be a police riot, like in 1968. Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson (D) has spent months negotiating with the leaders of the Little Palestine suburb near Chicago to try to make sure they can exercise their right to protest but also make them understand that doesn't give them the right to block traffic or disturb the convention. The police have said as long as the protesters stay in the 1.4-mile-long court-approved marching area, they will not only not interfere with them, they will protect the marchers from counter-demonstrators. The police even created a website explaining to the protesters what their rights and responsibilities are.
There are 264 pro-Palestinian groups expected to take part, some of which are believed to be linked to terrorist groups. The leaders of the demonstration have to make sure they can maintain control and not let people who want to create chaos do so. If things get out of control, not only will that hurt the Palestinians' image in the U.S., but it could help elect Trump, whose Middle East policy is basically "What Bibi wants, Bibi gets." The Palestinians Do. Not. Want. That.
Harris' promotion from #2 to #1 also changes the calculus for the demonstrators. With Biden on top, he was worried about losing the votes of the 210,000 Arab-American voters in Michigan, a key swing state. This is about 2% of the population in a state he won by 2.8%. However, the Black population of Michigan is 1.4 million, or 14%. This means Harris can probably give the Arab population a hard "No" on what they want and make up for the loss by campaigning vigorously in Detroit for Black votes. The leverage of the Arab community has been greatly reduced by the candidate swap. The leaders of the demonstrators probably know this and might not want to push their luck. Harris certainly knows this.
If the protests inside and outside the convention remain orderly and nonviolent, the rest of the convention will be smooth sailing for Harris. She might even get a polling bump from it, but we won't really know that until late next week. (V)