Aug.15

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New Poll: Harris Leads in Five Swing States, Is Tied in One, and Behind in One

When Kamala Harris took the baton from Joe Biden and began running with it, Donald Trump was ahead by an average of 3-5 points across the swing states. Now a new poll conducted by BSG and GS Strategy Group, and sponsored by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, can be used to show what has happened since then. This is useful because both the May poll and the new one were done by the same folks using the same methodology and same model of the electorate. It is a true apples to apples comparison, and not apples to pineapples. Here are the results:

What are some takeaways? First, Harris has picked up ground in every swing state and now has small leads in five of them, trails in one, and is tied in one. Biden was behind in six and tied in one. Harris clearly has momentum. The states where she has gained the least are the Southern states of Arizona and Georgia, where she has picked up only 3 points. Her biggest gain is also in the South, North Carolina, where she has picked up 8 points and gone from not competitive to a statistical tie. She also picked up 6 points in Nevada, although she is still behind there. Those are pretty good numbers so far.

Second, the southern route is as competitive as the northern route. For Biden, it was the northern route or bust. If Harris loses Wisconsin (10 EVs) she can make it up and more by winning Arizona (11 EVs). This gives her more ways to get to 270 than Biden had. She doesn't have to put all her eggs in one basket this way. Also, North Carolina is now in play. With Biden running, it was a Lost Cause. It is probably not a coincidence that the only Democrat to carry it in this century was Barack Obama (in 2008). This was due to two things. First, the state has a large Black population. Second, the Research Triangle Area has many highly educated workers in the tech and financial sectors. These groups are highly Democratic. If Trump loses its 16 EVs, he is going to have to win Georgia (also 16 EVs), otherwise he is probably finished. If Harris wins the blue wall states and any of Arizona, North Carolina, or Georgia, all of which are definitely in play, Trump will be hard pressed to get to 270.

Third, next week is the Democratic National Convention. Harris is still much less well known than Trump. He didn't get a bump at all from his convention. With a week of positive, maybe even joyous, publicity, she is probably going to continue her momentum into September. Then the debate will happen on Sept. 10. Harris is a much better debater than Biden. Prosecutors have to make a case before a jury all the time. She knows how to do that. If Harris' momentum continues until the debate, Trump is probably going to ignore the advice of his team and just lash out against her. He could get racist and sexist, either intentionally or accidentally. That won't help with swing voters. We hope Cook hires the same pollsters again in September so we have a comparison with May and August.

Another poll is also interesting. It is a Monmouth University poll asking about "double haters"—those voters who hate both candidates. When the candidates were Joe Biden and Donald Trump, 17% of the voters hated both candidates. Now that has dropped to 8%. What does that suggest about the 9% who are no longer double haters? We know they hate Trump and we know they hate Biden. But when given a choice between Harris and Trump, they no longer hate both of them. It does kind of suggest that they don't hate Harris. They may not love her, but at least they don't hate her. That is something.

Still another interesting poll is of Latinos in the seven swing states. Harris leads Trump 56% to 37% among Latinos now, a 19-point lead. In May, Biden had a 5-point lead with Latinos in those states. That is another huge gain. (V)