Dem
51
GOP
49
Yesterday, a pair of secretaries of state announced that pro-choice measures had made the ballot in their respective states. First up is Missouri, where state Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft (R) said that a proposed initiative had been certified. The initiative uses very broad language, like "The right to reproductive freedom shall not be denied, interfered with, delayed, or otherwise restricted unless the government demonstrates that such action is justified by a compelling governmental interest achieved by the least restrictive means." If it passes, there will be lawsuits galore, as Missourians try to hash out exactly what things like this mean.
Meanwhile, over in Arizona, state Secretary of State Adrian Fontes (D) confirmed that the Arizona Abortion Access Act had 577,971 certified signatures, which is about 200,000 more than needed. So, it will be on the ballot, too. The Arizona initiative is a little less open-ended than the one in Missouri; it declares that the right to an abortion will be protected until the point of fetal viability (approximately 23 weeks).
You presumably don't need us to explain the implications here, but just in case, the Arizona initiative will certainly pass, while the Missouri initiative will probably pass. So, it will be one or two more setbacks for the anti-choice movement. Beyond that, the initiatives are going to cause a lot of pro-choice voters to get to the polls. That is going to be a big deal in both the presidential race and the Senate race in the swing state of Arizona. Cook Political Report has the former as "Toss-Up" and the latter as "Lean D." It would not surprise us to see each move one step further left in the site's next update (so, "Lean D" for the presidential race, "Likely D" for the Senate race).
As to Missouri, the only poll of that state's Senate race in the last 6 months had Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) up 9 points on Lucas Kunce (D), 47%-38%. That's a tall mountain to climb but, significantly, 47% is not 50%. If a good campaign by Kunce makes up for half the difference, while the abortion initiative makes up for the other half, it's at least possible it could become competitive. And keep in mind that Hawley isn't just your rank-and-file Republican senator, like, say, John Cornyn in Texas or James Lankford in Oklahoma. He's an obnoxious "show horse" who raised a fist in solidarity with the 1/6 insurrectionists. If he somehow goes down, there will be some Republican senators who experience a little schadenfreude, even if they can't say it openly. (Z)