Aug.14

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Four More States Cast Primary Ballots

Yesterday, Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin held their primaries. There wasn't too much drama but, still, here are the most interesting results:

• Governor, Vermont: Remarkably, there were two Democrats willing to take on the buzz saw that is Gov. Phil Scott (R-VT) as he runs for a fifth term. The Democrat who won the "honor" is Esther Charlestin, who is quite liberal, and who will become the first woman of color to run for governor of Vermont on a major-party ticket. That will happen in a state that's 94% white.
  
  Vermont is D+16, which should mean that Scott is toast. However, this is where we run into an unavoidable shortcoming of PVI. PVI is based on presidential results, and most Vermonters, including a big chunk of the Republicans, do not care for Donald Trump and his brand of Republicanism. On the other hand, most Vermonters, including a big chunk of the Democrats, very much like old-school, Rockefeller-style, reach-across-the-aisle Republicans like Scott. Here are his margins of victory in his first four runs for governor: 2016, 9%; 2018, 15.4%; 2020, 41%; 2022, 47%. You can see where the trendline is heading, namely a very bad place for Charlestin. She will be lucky if she can get her margin of defeat down below 30 points.
  
  
• U.S. Senate, Connecticut: Allow us to remind you that incumbent U.S. senators win a little more than 90% of the time. And when they don't win, it's usually because: (1) they live in purple states and/or (2) they suffered serious damage because of some scandal or contentious political issue. There were four U.S. Senate primaries yesterday, and all four of them are likely to be part of that 90%.
  
  Sen. Chris Murphy's (D-CT) race is certainly one of those. He's won all five of the elections he's run in during his career, including his two previous Senate elections. The last time out, he won by more than 20 points over Matthew Corey (R). That is probably relevant here, because the winner of the Republican primary yesterday was... Matthew Corey, with 54% of the vote. Corey is apparently very enthusiastic about his platform, as it includes things like "Build a strong economy!" and "Make our lives affordable!" Oddly, "Put our communities first" is the only plank that does not get the exclamation point. Guess he's only lukewarm about that one. Who knows why Corey wants to spend his time and money tilting at windmills but, in any event, he's toast in November.
  
  
• U.S. Senate, Minnesota: Here's another sure thing for the Democrats, although in this case the party is technically Democrat-Farmer-Labor. Like Murphy, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (DFL-MN) has won all five of her career elections. In her case, that includes three U.S. Senate elections, all of them won by 20+ points. Her opponent will be Royce White, who is described in every story as a "former NBA player." While this is technically true, it should be noted that he played a grand total of... 9 minutes, during which he attempted one shot and committed two fouls. Point is, we're not talking a beloved sports figure here, who might attract some votes on that basis. He's also very MAGA in a state that is not, and he's going to lose big.
  
  
• U.S. Senate, Vermont: Vermonters may love them some Phil Scott, but they also love them some Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). What can we say? People contain multitudes. Here are the margins of victory in Sanders' three U.S. Senate campaigns: 2006, 34%; 2012, 46%; 2018, 40%. The Bern was unchallenged yesterday, and so was the man who will become his fourth victim, perennial candidate Gerald Malloy. Here is Malloy's campaign logo:
  
  
  
  Hm. He seems to have missed the memo that you're not supposed to tell people you're a Canadian sleeper agent, just waiting for the "GO, EH!" command.
  
  Here is Malloy's platform: "I can do better for Vermont and Vermonters and the United States of America to rebuild unity and actually make progress on the issues and problems and crises we are facing." Whoa, whoa, whoa, Gerald. You gotta cut it out with the wonky stuff. You're leaving people behind with policy proposals that are so specific and detailed.
  
  Anyhow, Sanders will be available to campaign for the Harris ticket as much as is needed, because he won't need to do any campaigning for himself. His presence on the trail could be important to Harris since he has enormous cred with progressives.
  
  
• U.S. Senate, Wisconsin: Of the four Senate contests yesterday, this is the one that maybe could be competitive, if you squint just right. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) was unopposed, while her newly-minted opponent, Eric Hovde (R), took 86% of the vote in a three-way race. Baldwin is yet another who has never lost an election; she's 8-0 overall and 2-0 in U.S. Senate elections. However, because Wisconsin is kinda purple, Baldwin's elections tend to be kinda close; the margins in her two Senate races were 6% and 11%. The problem for Hovde, beyond the fact that he's a carpetbagger who actually lives in California, and he's got some skeletons in his closet, and he's a little too Trumpy, is that there is every chance that Kamala Harris will win the state in November. Can you imagine a bunch of Trump-Baldwin voters? Maybe. Can you imagine a bunch of Harris-Hovde voters? We can't.
  
  
• CT-02: Connecticut has a couple of competitive House districts; the first of those is the D+3 CT-02. There weren't any primaries yesterday; Rep. Joe Courtney (D-CT) was unchallenged, as was U.S. Navy veteran and former town councilor Mike France (R). France, incidentally, was born, raised and went to college in California, so while he's not quite the carpetbagger that Eric Hovde is, he can't say he's a multi-generational Connecticuter like Courtney is. France probably doesn't even know that many Connecticuters prefer to be called Nutmeggers. In any case, Courtney is running for his tenth term, and so clearly knows what he's doing. Despite the purplish color of the district, he's a solid favorite.
  
  
• CT-05: This is another district that is D+3, and that had no primary yesterday. Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-CT) was unopposed, as was former state senator George Logan (R). Connecticut Republicans apparently decided that because Hayes is Black, they needed to run someone against her who is Black, despite the fact that the district is just 7% Black (it is Connecticut, after all). This is a rematch of the 2022 election in CT-05, which Hayes won 50.4% to 49.6%. Clearly, either one of them COULD win. That said, this time around, Logan will have to overcome presidential-year dynamics, which tend to favor the Democrats, especially in blue states.
  
  
• MN-02: Minnesota has one competitive House district, the D+1 MN-02. Rep. Angie Craig (DFL-MN) easily won her primary, with 91% of the vote. On the Republican side, there was some drama, as the local Republican organ in MN-02 gave its support to political newbie Tayler Rahm over the slightly more Trumpy Joe Teirab, who is a former Marine and a former federal prosecutor. But then, Rahm took a job with the Trump campaign and dropped out. So, Teirab got the nomination. Teirab isn't a great fit for the district, but the NRCC is going to dump a bunch of money on him, trying to flip the district, so it could be a barnburner.
  
  
• MN-05: At D+30, this is Minnesota's least competitive district. However, it was being closely watched yesterday because it is the district of Squad member Rep. Ilhan Omar (DFL-MN). Like her fellow Squaders (Squadians? Squadimentos?), she's a vocal supporter of the Gazans. Unlike Reps. Cori Bush (D-MO) and Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), she did not face a Democratic opponent being supported by substantial amounts of AIPAC money. Maybe the AIPAC money is the decider, because Bush and Bowman lost, while Omar defeated her primary challenger, Don Samuels, 56% to 43% (with the other 0.9% going to other candidates).
  
  It is possible, of course, that the cause and effect goes in the opposite direction, and that instead of Omar being saved by the lack of AIPAC money, AIPAC chose not to spend because they knew she would win. Whatever the case may be, she's going to win another term in November. Her opponent will be Dalia Al-Aqidi (R), who is Iraqi. One presumes that is not a coincidence, and she was recruited by people who felt they needed a Muslim to challenge a Muslim. The problem here is that MN-05 not only has way more Democrats than Republicans, it also has 10 times as many Somalis as Iraqis. Omar, you will recall, is Somali.
  
  
• WI-01: In theory, this R+3 district should be competitive. It wasn't in 2022, however, when Rep. Bryan Steil (R-WI) won by 9 points. This time around, Steil will face Peter Barca (D), who used to represent this general area in the House... 20 years ago. Democrats are hoping that a candidate with experience (even a long time ago), along with presidential coattails, will change the dynamics from 2 years ago. Note, incidentally, that both men were unopposed, so there was no actual primary yesterday.
  
  
• WI-03: There were two Democrats running in yesterday's primary. Rebecca Cooke is a business owner and a centrist who has no political experience but who had lots of money. State Rep. Katrina Shankland is more lefty, has extensive political experience, and had the backing of the Democratic establishment. So, which set of assets won out? Cooke's, 50% to 41%. She will now try to unseat Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI), who is a loudmouth and is unpopular with many of his fellow Republican officeholders, but who has incumbency plus the built-in advantage of a GOP-leaning (R+4) district.
  
  
• WI-08: At R+10, this district is not really competitive. When Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) resigned, three Republicans jumped at the chance to replace him. The winner of both the primary for the special election (to finish Gallagher's term) and for the regular election (for a term in their own right) was Trump-endorsed businessman Tony Wied, who took roughly 40% of the vote, as compared to 34% for his nearest opponent. This is yet another reminder that Trump's endorsement is most relevant in three-way (or more than three-way) Republican primaries.
  
  In both the special and regular elections, Wied will face OB/GYN Kristin Lyerly (D), who was unopposed yesterday. It is not likely that Lyerly will make either election competitive, but with the abortion issue and presidential-year dynamics, it's not completely out of the question.
  
  
• Wisconsin Questions 1 and 2: The Republican-dominated legislature, which probably won't be Republican-dominated much longer, thanks to fairer district maps, put two initiatives on the ballot meant to curtail the power of the governor, Tony Evers, who just so happens to be a Democrat. Question 1 would have barred the legislature from delegating its power to appropriate money. Question 2 would have required approval from the legislature before the governor could spend any federal funds. In other words, the Republican legislators were trying to eliminate any situation in which the Democratic governor might have discretion over the spending of money.
  
  Wisconsin voters were having none of it. Question 1 failed with 57% voting "no" and Question 2 failed with 58% voting "no."

The end of the primary calendar is drawing near. Next Tuesday, Alaskans will cast votes for their state's only U.S. House seat, while Floridians and Wyomingites will choose candidates for both the House and the Senate. Thereafter, there will be only four states left, and all of them are taking their turns in September. (Z)