Aug.12

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Four States Will Hold Primaries Tomorrow

Tomorrow, Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin hold primaries. Some of the contests are interesting. Let's take a look:

• Connecticut: No Republican has been elected to Congress from Connecticut in 18 years, but not all of them realize that. The top race is for the Senate. Sen. Chris Murphy brought in $13 million. The two Republicans who want to challenge him, Beacon Falls First Selectman Gerry Smith and pub owner Matt Corey, have raised less than $65,000 each. Good luck with that. And what is a selectman? What do they select? Voters want to know.
  
  In CT-05, Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-CT) is unopposed in the primary as is Republican George Logan. Logan came within a point of beating Hayes in 2022 and is trying again. There will be sparks in the fall, but not tomorrow.
  
  In CT-04, physician Michael Goldstein is battling tea party activist Bob MacGuffie for the right to lose to Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT). They raised $109,000 and $97,000, respectively. Himes has $2.3 million in the bank and is ready to spend it for the general election.
  
  
• Minnesota: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (DFL-MN) is a shoo-in for reelection, but there are a couple of noteworthy House races. MN-02 was supposed to have a competitive Republican primary to face Rep. Angie Craig (DFL-MN) in a D+1 district. However, one of the Republicans just dropped out to work for Donald Trump's campaign, so Joe Teirab will be the Republican nominee. Craig has $4.1 million on hand and is the favorite.
  
  In MN-03, Dean Phillips retired to show the country that Joe Biden was old and feeble and couldn't win. Like Cassandra, he was right, but nobody believed him. Now he can go back to making gelato. Neither primary is competitive. The Democratic-Farmer-Labor candidate will be former state senator Kelly Morrison. The Republican will be former state senator Tad Jude. The district is D+8 so Kelly will get to be a congresscritter.
  
  MN-05 is represented by the very controversial Squad member Ilhan Omar (DFL-MN). She is being challenged by Don Samuels, whom she narrowly defeated in the primary 2 years ago. Unlike Rep. Cori Bush's (D-MO) race, Omar has more money than her challenger and outside groups haven't been much involved in the race. Omar will probably win her race and cruise to reelection in the D+30 district. Does it really matter whom the Republicans nominate?
  
  
• Vermont: Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) believes he will live forever and is running for a fourth term, which he will easily get against Gerald "Deploy" Malloy. Maybe this was the year to call it a (very successful) career, but he didn't, even though he knows he is 82 and also knows that Gov. Phil Scott is a Republican who has the power to fill Senate vacancies. In the House race, neither Rep. Becca Balint (D) nor Mark Coester (R) faces an opponent.
  
  
• Wisconsin: In all likelihood, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Eric Hovde (R) will win their primaries. They have already spent $25 million going after each other. The race will be hotly contested, but Baldwin is the favorite over California banker Hovde.
  
  WI-03 is marginally competitive at R+4, and three Democrats want the chance to unseat Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI). Progressive State Rep. Katrina Shankland is arguing that she has the experience to go to Congress. She had $190,000 on July 24. Small business owner Rebecca Cooke is backed by the Blue Dog PAC. She had $591,000 on July 24. The contrast is as plain as day. The third candidate is Eric Wilson. He had $29,000 on July 24. No matter who wins the primary, Van Orden is the favorite. He is a notorious loose cannon, however, so if any House candidate might have a "macaca" moment this year, he's the one.
  
  Finally, in the R+10 WI-08, there are two elections tomorrow for Republicans. One is the special election to fill out the term to which Mike Gallagher was elected before he resigned from the House. The other is the primary for the term beginning Jan. 3, 2025. The same three Republicans are running in both races. They are state Sen. Andre Jacque, former state Sen. Roger Roth, and former gas station owner Tony Wied. Donald Trump has endorsed Wied, who has put $645,000 of his own money in the race. The winner will face physician Kristin Lyerly, who is the Democrat in both races.
  

Not as exciting as last week, but the primaries are finally winding down. (V)