Dem
51
GOP
49
With Joe Biden in the race, it wasn't clear whether the presence of Robert Kennedy Jr. in the race was hurting Biden more than it was hurting Donald Trump. Now that Biden is out and Kamala Harris is in, it is increasingly clear that Kennedy is hurting Trump more than he is hurting Harris. Apparently, many of his previous supporters were Democrats who felt that Biden was simply too old and feeble to be president, as well as antivaxxers who felt Trump was weak on vaccinations. With Biden gone, the Democrats have come home, but the antivaxxers, who tend to be right-wing, are sticking with Kennedy. In various polls, Harris now does better in three-, four-, and five-way races than head-to-head against Trump. In other words, when the antivaxxers are forced to choose between Harris and Trump, they choose Trump, but when Kennedy is an option, they dump Trump to jump to Kennedy. This is not what Kennedy's millionaire backers and Steve Bannon had in mind when they got him to enter the race.
As one example, a recent Emerson College poll of New Hampshire had Harris ahead of Trump by 4 points in a head-to-head race. But when respondents were allowed to pick a third party, her lead grew to 7 points due to Trump voters defecting to Kennedy. In national polls, it is the same story. In Marist College and YouGov polls, Kennedy costs Trump 1 point. In Ipsos, Siena College, and Marquette Law School polls, Kennedy costs Trump 2 points. In a Wall Street Journal poll, Kennedy takes 3 points out of Trump's hide. No recent poll shows Kennedy hurting Harris. Jill Stein (G), Chase Oliver (L), and Cornel West (I) are all way below 1%.
There is evidence that Trump and his backers are coming to understand how Dr. Frankenstein once felt. They have created a monster they can't control now. Trump was definitely not happy when libertarian podcaster Joe Rogan said he supports Kennedy. Rogan supports gay rights, marijuana, horse dewormer ivermectin, and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), but hates cancel culture, vaccines, and transgender athletes. He is definitely the kind of guy some Trump supporters listen to. Spotify just paid him $250 million to host his podcasts. Having him say nice things about Kennedy could cost Trump votes.
But before Kennedy could cause large-scale trouble for anyone, he has to get on the ballot. This is proving trickier than he would like. In particular, he has lived in Los Angeles for over a decade. So does his running mate, Nicole Shanahan. Unfortunately, this means the 54 California electors are banned from voting for him for president and her for vice president. Rather than simply accepting that—meaning if he wins, he might have Gov. Tim Walz (DFL-MN) or Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) as his VP—he has filed to get on the ballot everywhere claiming that he lives in Katonah, NY, a hamlet of 1,600 people in Westchester County.
A Democratic-aligned PAC has sued him in New York, claiming he lied on the nominating petitions, which would disqualify him. It is not clear who lives at the address on Kennedy's nominating petitions, but it is not Kennedy. He admits that, but says he plans to return there some day, and according to him, that is sufficient to qualify under New York State law. He recently testified in Albany as part of the lawsuit. If the New York court rules that he lives in California, then he will be off the New York ballot and face lawsuits in every other state as well. The result could be that he qualifies in no state. He may be a lawyer, but he is not a very smart lawyer. He should have thought this out long before jumping in (or before picking a fellow Californian as his running mate). Of course, when the Democrats started the lawsuit, they thought Kennedy was going to hurt Biden more than Trump. Now they are stuck with it. (V)