Dem
51
GOP
49
Yesterday, Siena College released polls in the three northern swing states showing Kamala Harris ahead in each one by 4 points. These polls did not come out of the blue. They were part of a trend that has been underway since Joe Biden passed the baton to Harris. Here is the effect graphically:
Observe closely what happened after Biden dropped out and Harris instantly became the de facto nominee. Trump's electoral-vote score dropped from a high of 318 on July 11 to 235 now. In the same period, Biden/Harris went from 220 EVs to 276. On July 11, Trump had enough to win. Now Harris has enough to win.
This graph, and others like it, can be found by clicking on the Electoral-vote graphs link in the menu to the left of the map above. It is updated daily as new polls come in. Note carefully that the graph above reflects the EV score on the main page every day. States where one candidate has a lead that is really a statistical tie (the states with a white center on the map) count here. But in the second graph on the page linked to above, where only "solid" states are counted, Trump's collapse is also visible, although Harris' rise is smaller. On the second graph, you can see Biden/Harris has never been above 270 in the solid states. Trump was above it one day in March and six days in April, but not since then.
As an aside, there is more to this site than the front page. The Click for Senate link above the map takes you to our Senate page, with descriptions of all 34 Senate races. We will begin updating the Senate map daily in about 2 weeks, when almost all the Senate candidates will have been chosen. Next to the Senate link is a link to download all the polling data in various formats.
On the menu, there are a number of interesting links, including the tipping-point table, graphs of the electoral vote, graphs of the state polls, state averages, and more. Take a look. (V)