Aug.09

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Trump Presser: 28 Days Later

Today, of course, is August 9. That makes today the 28th day since July 13. As it happens, July 13 is the day that Donald Trump was targeted in an assassination attempt.

The night of the 13th was probably the highest point for the Trump campaign thus far (and it may well prove to be the highest point for the entire cycle). Joe Biden had botched the presidential debate (on June 27), and the "he's too old and feeble" attacks that the GOP spent years crafting were landing. Biden was actively, if inadvertently, helping Republicans sell that line of argument with additional, post-debate missteps. Consequently, not only did Trump have a lead in polls, but his advantage was growing, such that he was well on the way to "commanding lead." Then there was the assassination attempt, and the raised-fist photo, which made Trump sympathetic to some and heroic to others. Looking ahead to the VP announcement and then the RNC, both set to happen just days after the assassination attempt, the Trump campaign thought it was running away with this thing.

In the 4 weeks (a.k.a. four lifetimes) since, it's been almost all downhill for Trump '24. It's pretty clear, at this point, that the campaign botched the VP pick, as whatever J.D. Vance brings to the ticket is almost certainly outweighed by his baggage and his off-putting persona. The RNC started with a message of "kumbayah," but quickly devolved into the same-old, same-old culture wars/general nastiness. Trump's acceptance speech was the encapsulation of this; he started out with 20 minutes or so of positivity, but then descended into a long, boring hour of griping and score-settling.

And then, of course, Joe Biden withdrew from the race, just hours after the Republicans had spent an entire week using piles of ammunition against him. The Democratic Party insta-coalesced behind Kamala Harris, with a speed and in a manner that stunned us, and surely must have done the same for the Trump campaign. In retrospect, maybe it shouldn't have been so surprising. Not only did many Democrats spend this entire cycle saying, in so many words, "Well, I have no real choice but to vote for Biden," that was also the situation for many members of the blue team in 2020 and 2016 (sub in "Clinton" for "Biden" in the latter case). Put another way, there are many Democratic voters who have been waiting 12 years for another candidate they can feel excited about, following Barack Obama. Looking through that lens—that Harris is benefiting from a decade's worth of pent-up enthusiasm—the overwhelming response to her candidacy makes a lot of sense.

This week, with post-assassination lifetime #4 underway, Harris announced Gov. Tim Walz (DFL-MN) as her pick for running mate, and... the party just kept going. As we noted before the pick was announced, the Democrats are feeling so good right now that any VP pick might well have been greeted with a round of "Huzzah!" That said, for reasons we laid out in great detail, Walz appears to have been a very savvy pick (and see below for more). Certainly, Walz is doing more for the Democratic ticket than Vance is doing for the Republican ticket.

The upshot is that, in just under a month, the entire complexion of the race has changed. And this is not merely a subjective judgment; it's supported by objective fact. Consider just the poll-related news from the last 24 hours. Marquette just released their first national preference poll since June 6. In the June poll, it was Trump 50%, Biden 50% among registered voters and Trump 51%, Biden 49% among likely voters (both are shares of the major-party vote when third-party candidates were included). In the poll released yesterday, it is Harris 47%, Trump 41% among registered voters and Harris 50%, Trump 42% among likely voters (again, both are shares of the major-party vote when third-party candidates were included). That is a swing of 10 points among likely voters. Some of that swing is probably due to the imprecision implicit in polling, but only some.

Consistent with that result, it's also become increasingly clear that Robert F. Kennedy Jr.—who was, and still is, being propped up by Trump supporters—is taking more votes from Trump than from Harris. The Washington Post has an analysis that shows that Trump consistently loses 1-2 points when third-party candidates are included in polls. Some of those people who say they plan to vote third-party won't actually do it, when the time comes. But if RFK Jr. and the other third-party candidates cost Trump just half a point, there is every chance that could be fatal for the former president.

To give one other data point, the folks at The Cook Political Report are paying close attention to all of this. They are also very cautious when it comes to changing their predictions. However, yesterday, editor-in-chief Amy Walter announced that the site has moved Arizona, Georgia and Nevada from "Lean Republican" to "Toss-Up." Readers presumably don't need us to remind them that those are the three states that are key to the "southern route" to victory. For Biden, that path was close to hopeless, but for Harris, it's now perfectly viable.

All of that is approximately 1,000 words' worth of prologue to this observation: Trump is uneasy right now (as well he should be). Keep in mind, this isn't just about wins and losses, even though he cares greatly about being a "winner" and not a "two-time loser." His very freedom is tied up in victory, since that is his best (and maybe only) chance to dodge the various criminal cases in which he is a defendant. His net worth is also on the line, as his best (and maybe only) remaining source of wealth is his TMTG stock, which will tank if he's not reelected. He really, really needs 4 years during which it will remain reasonably valuable, so he can slowly sell off a big chunk of his holdings.

In view of Trump's unease, and his desire to try to change the narrative and grab some headlines, he held a press conference at Mar-a-Lago yesterday. If you have not had your recommended daily allowance of crazy, and you would like to watch it, you can do so here (it's a little over an hour in length). While we normally wouldn't pay all that much attention to an unhinged Trump press appearance, this one is pretty important in view of current circumstances and also what was said. So, here's a rundown of the ten most important points from the presser:

1. Debates: The biggest news that emerged from the press conference is that Trump has de facto surrendered (at least for now); he said he has "agreed" to three debates, one with Fox "News" (Sept. 4), one with ABC (Sept. 10) and one with NBC (Sept. 25). This change of course may be the single-best indication that Trump is worried about his position, and is looking for ways to change the trajectory of the race.
   
   Harris, for her part, said she is pleased to see that Trump will appear on Sept. 10, as promised. Later she added that additional debates will be predicated on how the Sept. 10 debate goes. In other words, she appears to have maneuvered the situation so that: (1) the Fox debate is off the table, (2) Trump will have to honor his commitment to show up for the ABC debate, and (3) Trump will have to act like a grown-up during the ABC debate if he wants another debate after that. Someone is playing checkers here, and someone is playing 3-D chess. We'll leave it to readers to decide who is who.
   
   
2. Honeymooners: Trump said that Harris is enjoying a "honeymoon" right now, and that it will soon come to an end. Needless to say, he's just guessing/hoping here. Nobody (including us, of course) knows how long the current wave of enthusiasm for Harris will last. That said, given that her campaign is only going to last 100 days (the traditional length of a political honeymoon), and given the pent-up feelings we describe above, and given the Zoom calls and the rallies and the other things that continue to stoke the flames, there's no guarantee that the honeymoon will end.
   
   
3. Radical: Predictably, and stereotypically, Trump continued his efforts to paint both Harris and Walz as radical leftists who make Karl Marx look like Ronald Reagan. The former president backed up this claim with vague assertions about Harris' time as San Francisco DA and about Walz' support for trans youth. We do not know if such attacks are landing with anyone who is not already a Trump voter. He and his party play the "radical leftist" card so often, we may be in "boy who cried wolf territory" by now.
   
   
4. Off the Road Again: During the 2020 campaign, Trump and his supporters made much of the fact that Trump was making regular appearances on the campaign trail while Joe Biden was largely holed up in the basement of his residence in Delaware. This was presented as "proof" that Biden was too old and feeble to handle the rigors of campaigning (much less the presidency). Of course, Biden also had a good non-age-related reason for staying at home, namely the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
   
   These days, the shoe is on the other foot. While J.D. Vance is being worked like a dog (and is basically shadowing the Harris campaign), Trump has remained at Mar-a-Lago for most of the time since the Republican convention. For example, this week, he has only one scheduled public appearance, in Montana. If staying off the campaign trail is a sign of infirmity and inability to withstand the rigors of campaigning, what does that say about Trump? A reporter thought to ask that question, and the former president barked at her that it was a "stupid question" and then answered with a word salad that included references to Russia, his polling in ruby red states, Kim Jong-Un and World War III.
   
   
5. Hiding Out: Trump's camping out at Mar-a-Lago not only creates a parallelism with the behavior he mocked Biden for in 2020, it also creates a contrast with Harris, who has been campaigning vigorously. The former president's answer to that is that he holds press conferences, and she doesn't, since she's afraid to do so.
   
   We must confess that whenever this particular issue comes up, we don't fully understand it. There are many different ways that politicians interact with the press, and formal press conferences are just one of them. So, when we read that [POLITICIAN X] isn't holding press conferences, but we also read that [POLITICIAN X] answered [QUESTION Y] or commented on [ISSUE Z], it seems like the "no press conferences" complaint is very inside baseball and is also kind of a technicality. In any case, Harris is clearly out there in the world. And, just in case, she answered questions from reporters yesterday afternoon.
   
   
6. Size Doesn't Matter: Trump was also asked about the turnout for his rallies as compared to the turnout for Harris' rallies. We showed the pictures on Wednesday; at the moment, Harris is leaving Trump in the dust, attendance-wise. Trump responded to this question by saying that his rallies used to have WAY more people than Harris' ever had (he specifically claimed a turnout of 107,000 for a rally in New Jersey; the real figure was less than half that). He also said that it's really about enthusiasm, and that size doesn't really matter. This is presumably the first time he uttered that phrase since the infamous meet-up with Stormy Daniels.
   
   
7. Abortion: Yet another reporter asked Trump how he will be voting on the abortion initiative in Florida. Trump said he would reveal that information "at the appropriate time." Presumably, the appropriate time is right after he reveals his tax returns, his plan for peace in the Middle East and his framework for an Obamacare replacement. Time will tell if he can get away with dodging this question through the election cycle (and through the debates). Maybe he can, but we can envision Kamala Harris saying something like: "Do you notice how he's afraid to answer the question? If I lived in Florida, I would be first in line to vote to keep abortion legal. Why are you afraid to tell us where you stand, Donald?"
   
   
8. Lies, Lies, Lies: It would not be a Trump presser if it wasn't chock-full of lies. If you would like a relatively comprehensive accounting, the Associated Press has you covered here. For our part, we will just highlight the ongoing, and outlandish, claim that Harris and Walz support post-birth abortions. Is there ANYONE who believes this? First of all, that would be murder. Second, there is no woman who would go through the entire process of carrying a pregnancy to term, including giving birth, and THEN would have an abortion. It makes no sense. The only thing that is in the ballpark is that sometimes an infant is born with an unsurvivable condition, and is placed in a version of hospice care. But that is not, in any way, an abortion.
   
   Our view is that when a candidate issues forth with lies/exaggerations that don't come close to passing the smell test (much less surviving a Google search), it reduces the chance that more plausible lies/exaggerations might actually land.
   
   
9. Cue the Racism: As far as we can tell, there is a near-universal consensus that Trump's appearance before the National Association of Black Journalists was a disaster, with the single-worst moment being his claim that Kamala Harris arbitrarily chose to be Black once it was politically expedient. Naturally, given all the blowback he got, Trump used yesterday's press conference to... double down on the claim, and to insist that Harris isn't really Black.
   
   Now, please note that this is a real divide that exists among some people in the Black community (particularly the activist class). That is to say, is the experience of someone who is Black, but not a descendant of enslaved Americans (something true of both Harris and Barack Obama) really comparable to the experience of someone who is Black, and IS a descendant of enslaved Americans? However, this is mostly an academic debate that does not generally trickle down to the broader Black community since the Thirteenth Amendment was ratified 159 years ago. Further, to the extent that Black people are to be sorted into categories, it's really not the province of a wealthy white guy to do it.
   
   
10. I Have a Dream?: Finally, blending together his penchant for racially insensitive language with his penchant for exaggeration, Trump compared himself to Martin Luther King Jr. and claimed that the audience for his 1/6 speech was larger than the audience for the "I Have a Dream" speech. This is, of course, not remotely true. In fact, the best estimates are that King spoke to ten times as many people (250,000 vs. 25,000).

Again, everything here points to a candidate who is growing desperate: holding a press conference in the first place, the change of course on the debates, the bigger and bolder lies, the doubling down on things that resonate with the base but that don't land with anyone else.

Meanwhile, many Democrats (though not all) will be pleased by the Harris campaign's response. It put out a statement that contained a bit of snark (the press release headline was "Donald Trump's Very Good, Very Normal Press Conference") along with a blow-by-blow fact check of all of Trump's lies (two full pages; 31 distinct items). We often get e-mails asking "Why don't the Democrats push back against Trump's narratives." Well, now they are. (Z)