Dem
51
GOP
49
Or in Harrisburg or in Sacramento or in Lansing or in Frankfort or in a number of other places where Democrats rule. Probably no Democratic office holders are rooting for Donald Trump, but there are probably a few who are rooting for the Harris/Walz ticket with a few tears in their eyes. They have to smile and campaign hard for the ticket to be seen as team players. No doubt they will, but with slightly heavy hearts.
Of course, the grim reality for Govs. Josh Shapiro (D-PA), Gavin Newsom (D-CA), Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) and Andy Beshear (D-KY) is that a Harris/Walz victory potentially means giving up, or at least seriously delaying, their ambitions of sitting in the Big Chair. If Harris wins, she will almost certainly run for reelection in 2028, which means the four above-mentioned governors can't run until 2032, by which time they will all have hit term limits and won't be governors any more. And in 2032, Tim Walz will be 68, which is still young enough to run. If he decides to do that, which vice presidents often do, he will be the frontrunner. Challenging a frontrunner is certainly possible, but a former governor who has been out of office for many years is not starting from a position of strength. Of course, if any of them has become an incumbent senator by then, that would change the calculus, but Pennsylvania, California, and Michigan currently have two Democratic senators, and Kentucky is a steep hill for any Democrat to climb.
Meanwhile, if Trump wins, all four can attack him constantly and vie for the honor of being leader of the opposition. And all four can run in 2028, either as a sitting governor or a recently retired governor. That is clearly much better for them, but it would be uncouth to let on. Their best hope is to campaign like hell, impress Harris with their hard work, and then hope for a cabinet slot. If one or more of them is a cabinet officer for 8 years and does a good job, that could also be a springboard to a future campaign, especially if the cabinet slot (or slots) adds something valuable to their résumés.
Speaking of cabinet positions and historic firsts, what about the chances of being the first gay president (assuming you don't want to count James Buchanan)? Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg also has to secretly hope the Trump wins or that Harris can find a place for him in her cabinet. However, he could possibly run for governor of Michigan when Whitmer is term-limited in 2026. Being governor of a swing state for 6 years would be an excellent position to run for president in 2032.
The one governor who is in relatively good shape for a future presidential run is Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC). He is likely to challenge Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) in 2026. If he wins that, he will have to decide whether to run for reelection or run for president in 2032. If he can't beat Tillis, he is clearly not presidential material. And even if he does beat Tillis, he will be in his mid-70s, which could make voters leery. So, maybe a Senate career should be Cooper's only plan.
For one of the other veepables, not being chosen is probably a good thing. That would be Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ). He has never exhibited any fire in the belly for higher office and he probably has to spend some time taking care of his wife, who was almost assassinated. For him, being a senator is a fine job. You have to vote once in a while but it doesn't have to be a demanding job unless you want it to be. He is on the Armed Services Committee, which, as a veteran, he is certainly interested in. He is also on Energy, Environment, the Special Committee on Aging, and the Joint Economic Committee, so he has things to keep him busy and probably quite happy to be a senator for a few more terms. (V)