Aug.08

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Four More States' Voters Head to the Polls

There were primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington on Tuesday. We should have written them up yesterday, but we were too busy writing about Tim Walz. So, 24 hours late, here are the main storylines:

• Governor, Missouri: This one is largely about abortion access. From a field of three Republicans, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe emerged, taking 39.4% of the GOP vote. Kehoe was the most "moderate" of the trio, since he favors allowing abortions in the cases of incest and rape. His opponent will be state Rep. Crystal Quade (D), who easily outdistanced five other candidates with 50.2% of the vote. Missouri had a Democratic governor as recently as 2017, so a win for Quade is not impossible. However, she will need two things to happen to have a chance: (1) that a proposed abortion initiative qualifies for the November ballot, and (2) that the initiative draws a lot of left-leaning voters to the polls.
  
  
• Governor, Washington: This was a battle royale, because Washington's jungle-style primary meant that all the candidates—28 of them—were lumped together on the ballot. Despite the large field, AG Bob Ferguson (D-WA) took 45% of the vote. He will face off against former representative Dave Reichert (R), who took 28% of the vote. Although Reichert is running as a moderate, he would need to consolidate all of the Republican, independent and third party vote from Tuesday and THEN win over roughly 10% of the people who voted Democratic. That's a very tall hill to climb. Impossibly tall, really, so Ferguson is going to be the next governor.
  
  
• U.S. Senate, Michigan: Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) cruised, as expected, taking 76.3% of the vote, and dispatching progressive candidate Hill Harper. Former representative Mike Rogers (R) also cruised, as expected, taking 63.2% of the vote. He knocked off two rivals, most notably former representative Justin Amash. Slotkin is a more talented politician, has less baggage than Rogers (see below), and Michigan is a blue-leaning state. So, Slotkin is the solid favorite here.
  
  
• U.S. Senate, Missouri: No surprises here; Lucas Kunce (D) took 67.7% of the vote to easily outpace three other Democratic candidates, and will now face off against Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO), who was unopposed. Missouri is pretty red these days, but Hawley is pretty obnoxious, while Kunce is pretty close to the perfect Democratic candidate—moderate, young, good looking, military veteran, etc. As with the governor's race, this one will be affected by abortion rights; Kunce favors access while Hawley and his wife are closely associated with the militant anti-abortion position. Hawley is the unquestionable favorite, but an upset here would be less surprising than one in, say, Mississippi or Wyoming.
  
  
• U.S. Senate, Washington: There were only three people in this jungle-style race, and two of them advanced. The two are Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA), who got 57.9% of the vote, and perennial candidate Raul Garcia (R), who got 21.3%. Cantwell is even more of a sure thing in November than her fellow Washingtoninan Ferguson; she's won four times before, and her most recent win was by 17 points.
  
  
• KS-02: There was a knock-down, drag-out primary in this R+11 district, which is open due to the retirement of Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-KS). The fellow left standing, among five Republicans, is former Kansas AG Derek Schmidt, who took 53.1% of the vote. He's very right-wing and very Trumpy, but so is Kansas, so he will knock off his newly-minted Democratic opponent, former representative Nancy Boyda.
  
  
• KS-03: At R+1, this is Kansas' only competitive House district (the others are double-digit red). Rep. Sharice Davids (D-KS) will try to defend the seat against physician Prasanth Reddy (R). Reddy does not appear to be a particularly strong candidate; he outspent his only opponent, Karen Crnkovich, 8-to-1, and yet took just 53.1% of the vote to Crnkovich's 46.9%. Further, the district is moving in a blue direction, according to the Kansas City Star. So, Davids will likely keep her job.
  
  
• MI-03: Michigan has a number of competitive seats. Maaayyyybe that is because the district maps are drawn by the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission, as opposed to partisan legislators. In any case, the first of the competitive districts is the D+1 MI-03. Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-MI), who took 90% of the vote in her primary, learned on Tuesday that her opponent in November will be Paul Hudson (R), who took 54.7% in HIS primary. His slogan is "Common sense for crazy times." Maybe that sounds good on paper, but those kinds of platitudes rarely lead to victory. Scholten's a solid favorite here.
  
  
• MI-04: Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-MI) is gunning for an eighth term in this R+5 district. That makes the district "competitive," but barely so. His opponent will be attorney Jessica Swartz (D), who is running on a platform of—wait for it—common sense. She will try to leverage Huizenga's strongly anti-choice position, and his election denial, but she's a longshot.
  
  
• MI-07: This R+2 district is the one Elissa Slotkin is departing in order to run for the Senate. There was no drama on Tuesday as former state senators Curtis Hertel (D) and Tom Barrett (R) were both unopposed. As with so many races this year, the largest area of daylight between the candidates is on the issue of abortion. Hertel is strongly pro-choice, whereas Barrett says his anti-choice views don't matter because his opponent is not a woman. We will see if women voters in the district feel the same way.
  
  
• MI-08: Rep. Dan Kildee (D-MI) is retiring from the R+1 district. It was a three-way race on each side of the aisle. The Democrat will be Kristen McDonald Rivet, who took 53.4% of the vote, and who says she wants to restore the "Michigan Dream." The Republican will be Paul Junge, who took 74.8%, and who has a considerably more substantive platform. Both parties will dump money into this swingy race, but Junge appears to be the stronger candidate.
  
  
• MI-10: This R+3 district is represented by Rep. John James (R-MI), who ran for statewide office a couple of times and lost, and then decided to move down the ladder. His opponent will be judge and former prosecutor Carl Marlinga, who could spend a decade at a Buddhist retreat in Tibet learning discipline and focus, and still would be unable to be any more of a bland, middle-of-the-road Democrat than he already is. Because James is Black, he makes the GOP "diverse," so the Party is going to do whatever it can to make sure he keeps this seat.
  
  
• MO-01: In contrast to Michigan, the district maps in Missouri are drawn by the highly partisan state legislature, and there are no competitive districts in the state. Probably just a big coincidence, right? As a result of this, the only really interesting primary was in MO-01, which is the state's only Democratic district, with a whopping PVI of D+27. You've probably already heard that Rep. Cori Bush (D-MO) was primaried by the much more moderate St. Louis County DA Wesley Bell (D). That makes Bush the second Squad member to go down to defeat in the primaries, following Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY). Both representatives are strongly pro-Palestinian, which resulted in big AIPAC bucks for their Democratic challengers. Bell will lay waste to Republican Andrew Jones in November.
  
  
• MO-03: This district, which is R+16, won't be competitive in the general. However, it WAS competitive in the primary, thanks to the retirement of Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-MO). Bob Onder (R), who is pretty looney tunes, came out on top, with 47.4% of the vote in a seven-candidate field. His sacrificial lamb in November will be scientist Bethany Mann (D).
  
  
• WA-03: Like Michigan, Washington uses a redistricting commission. And like Michigan, several of Washington's districts are competitive. Funny how that works. The first of the competitive districts is WA-03, which is R+5, but is represented by a Democrat, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. She took 46.0% of the vote in her jungle-style primary, with ultra-Trumpy Republican Joe Kent, a veteran and former CIA officer, in second with 39%. Kent is a nutty conspiracy theorist, he lost to Gluesenkamp Perez once before, and the up-ballot races figure to bring a lot of Democrats to the polls. So, despite the Republican lean of the district, bet on Gluesenkamp Perez to keep her seat.
  
  
• WA-04: Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-WA), who represents this R+11 district, is one of two Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump and who are still in the House. The others either fell on their swords or were swept out of office by Trumpy voters. Newhouse advanced to the general on Tuesday, with 24.5% of the vote. However, he was outpaced by Jerrod Sessler (R), who is very Trumpy, and who took 31.2% of the vote. We do not claim to have our fingers on the pulse of Washington politics, but we assume that the district's Democrats will line up behind the less Trumpy Republican, and that Newhouse will keep his seat on the strength of those votes.
  
  
• WA-06: This D+6 district is open, thanks to the retirement of Rep. Derek Kilmer (D-WA). It had a real brawl between two Democrats, state Sen. Emily Randall and state Commissioner of Public Lands Hilary Franz. Randall came out ahead, with 33.9% of the vote, while Republican state Sen. Drew MacEwen squeezed in there with 30.3% of the vote, good enough for second place. So, Franz is out, and Randall will undoubtedly consolidate all or most of the 60% of the vote that went Democratic, earning a trip to Washington.
  
  
• WA-08: At D+1, this is Washington's most competitive district. Rep. Kim Schrier (D-WA) advanced to the general with ease, taking 51.2% of the vote. She will face banker Carmen Goers (R), who took 44.6%. The main thing Goers is running on? You guessed it, common sense. Again, we do not claim to have keen insight into Washington State politics. However, given that Schrier is incumbent, and given that 55.3% of the vote in WA-08 on Tuesday went Democratic, and given the potential coattails of Kamala Harris, Bob Ferguson, and Maria Cantwell, Schrier seems to be a safe bet to keep her job.
  
  
• Trump: After the results were in, Donald Trump took a victory lap on his boutique, $25.72-a-share social media platform, crowing: "A BIG NIGHT IN AMERICA. I was 24 for 24 in Endorsements, with numerous candidates that won being long shots. Very happy! Congratulations to All, do a great job for America!"
  
  This is true, but it also omits two important details. The first is that most of Trump's endorsees were slam dunks. The second is that, in several of the races that were not slam dunks, he endorsed multiple candidates. For example, in WA-04, he backed both Sessler and Tiffany Smiley (R). And in Missouri, he endorsed all three Republicans running for governor. It's rather easier to bat 1.000 if you get to swing at some pitches multiple times.

That's the latest. Next up is Hawaii, which will nominate a bunch of Democrats this weekend. Then, next Tuesday, it's Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin. All four will have both Senate and House races; Vermont will also add in a gubernatorial contest. (Z)