Aug.07

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Harris Will Dance the Walz

As expected, Kamala Harris announced the identity of her running mate yesterday. And, as everyone reading this surely must know by now, it's Gov. Tim Walz (DFL-MN). It's actually pronounced "walls," like the thing Donald Trump doesn't build, and not "waltz," like the dance. Hoever, if we went with the headline "Harris Goes Balls to the Walz," we'd get killed.

Also as expected, the new ticket debuted in Philadelphia yesterday. We read many stories about the rally, and they made regular use of words like "electric," "raucous," and "jumpin'." The rally was held at the Liacouras Center on the campus of Temple University. Probably not coincidentally, the Trump campaign held a rally in that same venue two weeks ago. After last night's event was over, the Harris-Walz campaign posted pictures of both rallies to "Truth" Social:

As you can see, the Trump-Vance rally attracted far fewer attendees than the Harris-Walz rally. The Harris campaign chose a less-than-perfect shot of the Trump rally, but one that clearly shows the candidate, so that Trump supporters could not claim that the picture was taken earlier in the evening before Trump arrived. If you'd like a clearer picture in terms of the difference in crowd size, there's this:

It's not a completely fair comparison, since the Harris campaign is very new, while the Harris-Walz ticket is brand new. That said, Trump has made a habit of representing (and misrepresenting) rally attendance as a proxy for electoral support. And, as they say, if you live by the sword, you have to expect to die by the sword. It is also pretty amusing that the Trump campaign could claim, apparently with a straight face, that "Philadelphia is Trump country." The turnout for the rally, not to mention the voting in 2016 and 2020 (the Democrat took 85%+ of the vote in Philadelphia), say otherwise. Indeed, it's hard to think of a place that is LESS Trump country than Philadelphia is. Maybe Washington, DC, or Honolulu, HI.

Because Ohio Republicans cannot be trusted, the Harris-Walz ticket is already official. That is to say, the DNC arranged to have delegates affirm both parts of the ticket in advance of today's deadline for ballot access in Ohio. Keep this in mind, as it becomes relevant later in this item.

Also, if you had "3 hours" in your "How long will it take The New York Times to post a bothsidesism piece about Walz?" pool, you are a winner. If you click on the link, you can learn that there are some Minnesotans who like Walz and some Minnesotans who don't like him. Thank goodness for the Times; otherwise we would have had no idea that opinions might differ in a state that is home to 5.7 million people.

The VP pick was the big news of the day (despite there also being a bunch of primaries), and the big news of the week, and so we are going to treat it that way. We would have liked to do the primaries, as well, but it takes a lot of time to put together a post like this. So, they'll have to be part of tomorrow's posting.

Why Walz?

Let's start this section with a note that the answer to this question is, at least in part, unknowable. First of all, Kamala Harris and her team got a lot of input on a number of different candidates from a bunch of different sources. If you could speak to her right now, and ask her exactly what her thinking was, and she was entirely truthful with you, well... her answer today might be different from her answer yesterday or tomorrow or next week. That's just the way the human mind works.

On top of that, there are some things that the Harris campaign could not possibly say publicly, whether it's talking about some of Walz' selling points, or some of his rivals weak points. In particular, it would not be well for the Harris campaign to be too critical of Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA), whose support will be important.

With those caveats out of the way, we're going to run down the ten factors that seem most salient to us, based on our sense of things, plus the various comments we read yesterday from campaign insiders and from outside observers:

1. Do No Harm: As we have written several times in the past week or two, the #1 rule for a VP candidate is "do no harm." Donald Trump may not have gotten that memo, but Harris certainly did. Among the leading candidates for the #2 slot, Walz would seem to offer the fewest lines of attack for Republicans (more below).
   
   
2. Shoring Up the Left Flank: Because Kamala Harris is a former prosecutor, some of the lefties in the Democratic Party were a little wary about her candidacy. However, picking Walz has left the progressives positively giddy. Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), for example, called it "a smart pick" and said "the vibes are awesome." Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), among other progressives, have also expressed their full-throated support for Walz.
   
   
3. Shoring Up the Right Flank: During the week or two when it was not clear if Joe Biden would stay or would go, we noted several times that the constituencies where Biden does better than Harris are labor, centrists and older voters, all of whom tend to be to the right of Harris on the political spectrum. Well, labor loves Walz, in part due to his pro-labor record of achievement, and in part due to his unassuming, blue-collar persona. Last week, a consortium of 25 labor unions sent a letter to Harris urging her to pick the Governor. As to the centrists, Walz represented a red district in Congress for six terms. As to older voters, we don't know exactly how they feel about him. The AARP's Minnesota chapter has been an ally, but the AARP, which is predominantly a lobbying organization, tends to play both sides of the street, as smart lobbyists will do.
   
   In short, you wouldn't think it possible, but Walz appears to help the Democratic ticket at both ends of the spectrum. We're not the only ones who are surprised to see this; David Axelrod, for example, noted yesterday that it is an unusual candidate who can get the enthusiastic support of both AOC and Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV). In fact, it wouldn't be too far off to say that Walz profiles like Biden: bland-ish white guy who talks like a centrist but governs like a progressive.
   
   
4. A More Perfect Vance: One of the pieces that Politico had yesterday started with this observation: "The two U.S. vice presidential candidates, Democrat Tim Walz and Republican JD Vance, have little in common."
   
   Um, what? The fact is that their demographic profiles are almost eerie in how similar they are: white, Protestant, Midwestern, blue-collar roots, military veteran, economic populist, etc. Heck, they both even name Diet Mountain Dew as their favorite drink.
   
   At the same time, Walz is kinda what you would get if you regarded Vance as v1.0, and then went back to the drawing board to create Walz as v2.0. To start, unlike Vance, Walz does not have a long history of saying outrageous things that are offensive to some major segment of the electorate. Further, while Vance is phony as all get-out, Walz comes off as authentic. As one Harris campaign insider remarked, "He hunts, he fishes, you want to have a beer with him." While Vance's ideas about religion are sometimes wacky, Walz is a Lutheran, which is about as down-to-earth as it gets. Vance has very limited experience in government, while Walz served for 12 years in Congress, and how has 5 years as governor under his belt.
   
   Put briefly, at least for those who follow Star Trek, Vance is Lore and Walz is Data.
   
   
5. Not Shapiro, Part I: By all accounts, Shapiro and Walz were the two finalists. And, again by all accounts, the primary reason that Walz came out on top was personality. Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) is no fan of Shapiro; their rivalry dates back many years, to a time when they both served on the Pennsylvania Parole Board. Through intermediaries, Fetterman warned Harris that Shapiro's ambition knows no bounds, and he tends to be a me-first kind of guy. And then, in his interview, Shapiro came off as... a me-first type of guy. The impression he gave was that he envisioned something along the lines of a co-presidency. By contrast, Walz, in his interview, made clear that he understands the subordinate role of the VP. When asked if he would be the last person in the room at an important briefing, he gave the exact right answer: "Only if that's what you want." After, one person in the room described Walz' interview like this: "It was a home run. Everybody loved him."
   
   
6. Not Shapiro, Part II: Beyond the contrast in personalities, Shapiro would have some with more baggage than Walz. Republicans (see below) are claiming that he was passed over because he's Jewish and/or because he's pro-Israel. However, it seems improbable that Harris, as someone married to a Jewish man, is prejudiced in this way. And as to Israel, there isn't a lot of space between Shapiro's views and Walz's views.
   
   Our guess—and we have zero evidence for this, because this is exactly the kind of thing that nobody would say out loud—is that the most important bit of baggage for Shapiro was actually his semi-cover-up of a case of sexual harassment by one of his highest-ranking staff members. The Harris campaign needs to dominate the votes of women, and the ticket just can't have the faintest whiff of a #MeToo issue.
   
   
7. Geography: Yesterday, we noted that it is possible for a VP candidate to bring their home state along with them, but that the effect is weak and that it only happens under very particular circumstances. Walz is most certainly not going to make the difference in Minnesota. That state is all but certain to go blue, having done so in every election since 1972. And if it does not go blue, well, it means the Democratic ticket had problems that went far beyond the mere power of a VP to rectify.
   
   Some Democratic operatives are suggesting that Walz can help in the "blue wall" states overall. Maybe so, but if that happens, it will be because of his general profile, not because he happens to hail from The Gopher State. Our guess is that the main thing the Walz pick reveals, geographically, is that the Harris campaign is not too worried about Pennsylvania. In the last nine polls of the state (some of which we don't include in our database because they are from partisan houses), Trump has led four times, Harris has led three, and there were two ties, with an average of Trump +0.8. However, the trendline is strongly in Harris' direction. Of course, if the Democrats lose Pennsylvania by 10,000 votes, and with it the election, there will be much second-guessing and Wednesday-morning quarterbacking.
   
   
8. Hold the Line: Some commenters have noted that one of the biggest winners yesterday was Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) remains available to challenge Thom Tillis in North Carolina in 2026. Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) remains available to run in for a seat that might well be left open by the retirement from Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY). Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) will be able to defend his seat.
   
   Governorships are not quite as important, nationally, as Senate seats are these days. But they do matter, of course, particularly in big, swingy states like Pennsylvania. And vacating the Pennsylvania governor's mansion is at least a bit more risky than vacating the Minnesota governor's mansion. So, among the main contenders, Walz was the least risky pick in terms of the Democrats holding the current line, and possibly expanding it in the future.
   
   
9. The Memer-in-Chief: Walz isn't quite the public speaker that Shapiro is, but he's no slouch, by virtue of his extensive public speaking experience as a teacher, football coach and politician. He's very good at speaking off-the-cuff and, in fact, has never used a teleprompter (a habit that he will likely have to change). He's also very, very good at coming up with meme-worthy bits. Everyone knows by now that he's the one who got the ball rolling on "weird." And at the rally yesterday, he got off a couple of good zingers, declaring that "Crime was up under Donald Trump, and that's not even counting the crimes HE committed" and "I can't wait to debate [J.D. Vance]—that is, if he's willing to get off the couch." How long will it be before "the coach vs. the couch" becomes a meme?
   
   This is not to say that Walz is only capable of delivering one-liners; he's also got a touch of the poet in him. For example, in 2023 he said: "Right now, Minnesota is showing the country you don't win elections to bank political capital—you win elections to burn political capital and improve lives."
   
   
10. Are You Ready for Some Football?: As we note above, Walz is a former football coach, and often uses football as a metaphor for politics. We suspect that someone on Team Harris took notice that not only is football very popular in the U.S., but that the height of the campaign will take place during football season. We would be very surprised, in particular, if Walz doesn't pop up in the booth at least once in September or October. For what it is worth, the Minnesota Vikings play on Thursday Night Football on Oct. 24.

There you have it; our best guess as to the thinking that went into the Walz pick.

The Republican Response

Once Walz had been announced yesterday, many Republicans expressed "relief" that it was him and not Shapiro. You should probably take such claims with a fistful of salt, along the lines of "They doth protest too much, wethinks." In fact, for the past week, Republicans have been conducting a whisper campaign against Shapiro, trying to stick him with the nickname "Genocide Josh." From where we sit, it appears that the Republicans' disappointment is because all of that turns out to be a waste of time, not unlike all the energy they dumped into tearing down Joe Biden.

In any event, here are the lines of attack that were used against the newly-minted Democratic #2 yesterday:

1. Too liberal: This was a common refrain, that Walz is some kind of wild-eyed lefty. Donald Trump, for example, "Truthed" this: "This is the most Radical Left duo in American history. There has never been anything like it, and there never will be again. Crazy Kamabla is, indeed, CRAZY. I HEAR THERE IS A BIG MOVEMENT TO 'BRING BACK CROOKED JOE.'"
   
   First of all, there is no movement to bring back Joe Biden. Even if there were, it's too late; the DNC has already nominated Harris and Walz (see above). Second, we don't really grasp what the purpose of mispelling "Kamala" is (though Trump has been doing it for about a week now). Maybe it's a clumsy portmanteau of Kamala + Obama, and he's implying that #44 is pulling the strings? Third, and finally, while Walz is certainly progressive in many ways, we are skeptical that the whole "radical left" bit will stick to him, especially since that is the Republicans' and Trump's default attack against EVERY Democrat.
   
   
2. DEI: "Too liberal" is the default line of attack against Democrats. Not far behind that is "DEI" And so, there were plenty of right-wingers yesterday slurring the Harris-Walz ticket as a "DEI ticket" and Walz as a "DEI candidate." Consider that for a moment: A middle-aged, middle-class Protestant white guy is a DEI candidate. To quote Inigo Montoya: "You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."
   
   
3. Creepy: There was a lot of this yesterday, including from Trump. An obvious attempt to counter-program "weird."
   
   
4. Antisemitism: Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), and others, quickly pounced on the fact that Josh Shapiro was overlooked, and declared it is because he's Jewish, and Democrats are anti-Israel and pro-Hamas. As we note above, we don't think this argument holds much water. If Johnson needs clarity on this point, he might go chat with his counterpart over the Senate, who is Jewish and was lobbying mightily for Walz.
   
   
5. He's a Closet Terrorist: As an adjunct to the antisemitism bit, many right-wingers claimed yesterday that Harris and Walz are so pro-Hamas that they will somehow bring sharia law and/or terrorism to America. For example, Trump advisor and noted fascist Stephen Miller tweeted: "Together, Walz and Harris will turn the Midwest into the Middle East. Rapidly." Outspoken Islamophobe Laura Loomer went so far as to claim that Walz is already a member of ISIS. As with "they're too liberal," the attack that [DEMOCRAT X] is secretly a radical Islamist sleeper agent is a well-worn item from the GOP bag of tricks.
   
   
6. Transmaniacon: And yet another from the bag of tricks. Some right-wingers, such as Daniel Baldwin of OAN, pushed the notion that Walz is a radical pro-trans activist. Baldwin tweeted: "Tim Walz signed a bill making Minnesota a 'Trans Refugee State.' No age limits for minors who could receive 'gender affirming care.' Truly radical." Just remember that, for the younger voters the Democrats desperately want to attract, this is a feature and not a bug.
   
   
7. Drunk Driving: J.D. Vance has some wild stuff in his past, not all of it involving couches. Walz's biggest piece of baggage is that he was busted for speeding (96 mph in a 55 mph zone) and DWI back in 1995. That is not good, but he owned up to it at the time, offering to resign his teaching post (the resignation was declined). He also became a teetotaler and has not touched a drop of liquor since.
   
   Yesterday, some Republicans tried to make hay of this incident (which, incidentally, was pleaded down to reckless driving). Maybe that will land, but maybe it will backfire. Many Americans have a misstep or two in their pasts—in many cases, their own DUI/DWI arrest. Further, the lesson of the story might be that Walz is a reckless jerk. Or it might be that he's an imperfect guy who owned his problems and became a better man for it.
   
   
8. Willie Horton Light: Unlike Mike Dukakis, Tim Walz did not oversee a program that allowed prisoners to leave prison on weekends. However, Walz did sign a bill into law that restored voting rights to convicted felons. Yesterday, the Trump campaign put out a statement lambasting this part of Walz' record. Presumably Trump '24 thinks voters won't notice that their candidate is... a convicted felon who will be allowed to vote in this election.
   
   
9. Fat Jokes: Walz does not appear to be overweight to us, but he was about 30 pounds heavier in the past. And so, many right-wing pundits decided to make some fat jokes at his expense yesterday, accompanied by pictures from Walz' more portly years. For example, notable twerp Ben Shapiro tweeted "Meet Tim Walz, who lives in a van down by the river." For those who do not recognize it, this is a not-at-all-stale reference to a Saturday Night Live sketch from the 1990s featuring Chris Farley as an overweight motivational speaker with ill-fitting clothes. It is possible that, one day, Shapiro's pop culture references will come from the current century, as opposed to the last one, but don't count on it. In any event, the tweet did not seem to have the effect Shapiro intended; the comments were full of things like this: "I miss Farley. What a huge loss of talent. Very kind of you to compare Walz to him, they are both amazing humans."
   
   
10. And...?: One of the more strange attacks came from Republican strategist Joey Mannarino. He tweeted a picture of Walz' perfectly normal looking family with the comment "This is Tim Walz's family." When Mannarino was asked what the problem is, he responded: "Just sharing. Will let others find problems if there are any." So, it's basically self-serve mudslinging.

We recognize this was a little on the exhaustive side, but we did it because we take two lessons from all of this. The first is that it appears, yet again, that the Trump campaign got caught flat-footed. They expected Josh Shapiro to be the pick, and when he wasn't, they were left scrambling, like the metaphorical chicken with its head cut off.

Second, it is pretty clear that Kamala Harris chose well in terms of a running mate that is pretty attack-proof. Walz has nearly two decades in public office. The Democrats undoubtedly vetted him six ways to Sunday. The Republicans must have done SOME oppo research on him. And yet, most of what the Republicans came up with was all-purpose attacks like "too liberal" and "secret terrorist," along with some personal insults, and a low-level skeleton from Walz' closet. We think we have a pretty good sense of what lines of attack are likely to work against a candidate, a ticket, or a political party. And, per our commentary above, we're not terribly impressed by what the Republicans came up with for Walz. It actually mirrors their struggle to come up with effective lines of attack against Harris.

Readers' Thoughts

We got quite a few messages from readers yesterday, and thought we'd pass some of them along, while the matter is fresh in the mind:

1. D.C. in Portland, OR: The other day, you expressed some doubt about Tim Walz as the VP pick. Following his introductory speech today I can imagine no better running mate because it's hard to believe one exists.
   
   
2. A.R. in Los Angeles, CA: I just watched the rally and the introduction of Walz and the first thought I had was the joy of this campaign. And sure enough, the first thing "Coach" Walz said was, "thanks for bringing the joy." This choice was the perfect compliment to this joyful, forward-looking campaign. The chief impressions I got of Walz are of a decent, kind, capable, committed public servant who hates bullies and will stand up to them. He will go after Trump/Vance but in a way that bullies hate—he will put them in their place not by elevating them but by shrinking them. Some favorite lines, "Even if we wouldn't make the same choice for ourselves, there's a golden rule: mind your own damn business;" "Trump froze in the face of COVID;" "Trump doesn't have time for public service because he's too busy serving himself."
   
   Just his decency alone is such a stark contrast and it certainly helps that he was raised in Nebraska and is a veteran. As Kamala Harris told Barack Obama, "We're going to have some fun." Amen. Joy and fun is kryptonite to Trump's fearmongering.
   
   
3. D.E. in Lancaster, PA: I just watched the Philadelphia speech by Kamala Harris where she introduce her running mate, Tim Walz, and I had one bit of criticism: Walz needs to work on his stagecraft a bit, in that his constantly bobbing from side to side quickly got on my nerves. Part of the problem was the awful blocking employed that placed him directly behind Harris from the press camera pool's perspective. Usually in these situations, the VP candidate is placed slightly to the right or left and behind the main candidate, where any distraction from the speaker is minimalized. It also doesn't help that Harris is a pretty energetic speaker, bobbing up and down, as well as side to side. Because Walz was equally, if not more, energetic than Harris, his bobbing in the other direction gave what I hope was the unintentional message that he was trying to upstage her. It's a basic Theater 101 lesson: When another actor is speaking to someone not you, you don't draw unnecessary attention to yourself. It's poor form and poor stagecraft and hopefully someone is being coached on these theatrical rules right now.
   
   
4. J.C. in Washington, DC: Wow... I wasn't sure about this pick. But the Democrats are firing on all cylinders. This rally is insanely good.
   
   Don't underestimate the power of the National Guard, as well. Some of the biggest swing states (especially Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Georgia) have the largest National Guards in the country. The fact that he was a Sergeant Major instead of an officer will especially resonate with some veterans on the fence.
   
   We got this.
   
   
5. A.G. in Scranton, PA: The energy is palpable, the differences between the sycophantic displays of pretend bandages, kowtowing, false praise, and phony patriotism in Milwaukee and the genuine joy, electric excitement, and unity like I've not witnessed since a Senator with a name they also purposefully mispronounced spoke in soaring rhetoric of change is alive tonight in Philly.
   
   At the local Democratic headquarters, where we joyously stuff envelopes and I share stories of crimes committed, loves lost, traumas endured, the bitter, petulant children coming from our town's first and very own "Trump Store" spit both in the literal manner on our windows and in the metaphorical their childish and ill-informed rants at us as we smile and wave back.
   
   I drove home smiling, fist pumping like the down-the-Jersey-shore, boardwalk-hanging jabroni I am at heart and laughed real laughter when I pictured, as I passed each house with a "Trump 2024" yard sign nd thought of the small and bitter people watching their "news" channels, getting higher and higher on the runaway addictive substance of hate they are hooked on and never understanding the dismissing returns that end only with their dragon never caught.
   
   They are angry and we are filled with joy. What better contrast? Even if we lose, and we're not losing this, we'll be the ones who did so while not finding new reasons to hate and with a joyous hope for what might be in our hearts and guiding our hands to write, our mouths to speak, our feet to walk for this nation.
   
   Those I work and live with hate that I am happy because they know when I'm not faking it and they know right now why I'm not faking it. I don't think the way the VP ascended was appropriate or bodes well for the future of the process, but if Governor Walz can keep from sticking his foot in his mouth as badly as he just did when telling a Philly crowd to attend a Springsteen concert in Jersey, she's got this thing.

We recognize that our readership is not representative of the overall electorate. However, it does mirror the Democratic electorate fairly well, and the tone and tenor of the e-mails yesterday was overwhelmingly positive and enthusiastic.

Gallimaufry

And finally, 10 things that might be of interested but that we couldn't squeeze in elsewhere. In no particular order:

1. About Time: If Tim Walz vacates his post, either to become VP or just to campaign, he will be replaced by Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (DFL-MN). In that event, she would become the first Native American governor of a U.S. State. She is a citizen of the White Earth Band of Ojibwe.
   
   
2. HarrisWalz.com: There is a trademark lawyer who is: (1) pretty good at reading the political tea leaves, and (2) willing to lay out a fair bit of cash to cover his various guesses. His name is Jeremy Green Eche, and he is the current owner of HarrisWalz.com. This is not the first time he's hit the bullseye like this; he was also the owner of ClintonKaine.com before selling it to that campaign. Eche says he's willing to transfer HarrisWalz.com for $15,000, which seems a pretty reasonable price tag for a campaign that has nine figures in the bank.
   
   
3. Chinese Democracy: Maybe this skill will prove useful, maybe it won't. However, thanks to having spent time in China teaching English classes, Walz is fluent in Mandarin Chinese.
   
   
4. Dog Days: Walz has a Black lab named Scout who is a well-known character, both around the governor's mansion and on social media. In particular, Scout went viral when Walz posted to social media the news (along with ongoing updates) that Scout had managed to lock himself in the bedroom. That saga concluded with this photo, which got tens of thousands of likes:
   
   
   
   The Walzes also have a rescue cat named Honey. And in case you are wondering, neither Scout nor Honey has ever bitten anyone.
   
   
5. Tim Who?: A poll from NPR/PBS/Marist reveals that 71% of Americans have never heard of Walz. That somewhat implies that, if he's a good candidate, there is room for him to attract supporters to the Democratic banner. It also means that the opposite is possible if he's a bad candidate.
   
   
6. Speaking of Bad Candidates: We couldn't quite fit this in above, but when Vance rallied in Philadelphia, someone screwed up the placement of the giant "HARRIS CHAOS" sign that appeared behind him. The result was this:
   
   
   
   Oops. The International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees took a shot at Vance, noting that this is the kind of thing that happens when you rely on non-union labor.
   
   
7. Debatable: Vance is also refusing to commit to a debate with Walz right now, claiming the Democrats could still pull a "switcheroo." As we note above, this is bull**it; Walz is already the nominee. Either Vance is trying to score cheap political points by trying to squeeze some more juice out of the Biden-Harris switch, or he's laying the groundwork to change the terms of the debate (as Donald Trump is trying to do with the presidential debate).
   
   
8. IVF: Walz' children were both born thanks to IVF treatments. So, in a year where reproductive rights are front and center, you now have a Democratic ticket where one person can give the perspective of a woman and the other can speak to the importance of IVF treatments.
   
   
9. LGBTQ: Walz was an early supporter of LGBTQ equality, and was the faculty sponsor of his school's gay-straight alliance in the early 1990s, before such things were fashionable.
   
   
10. Live from New York: Back in the day, Saturday Night Live would just pick whatever cast member had an interesting take on a politician, regardless of physical resemblance. This is how you got, for example, Dan Aykroyd, who had a mustache, playing Jimmy Carter, who definitely did not.
    
    These days, the show tends to cast its net more broadly, often bringing in a guest star to play high-profile politicos. For example, non-castmember Alec Baldwin played Donald Trump for several years, while non-castmember Jim Carrey played Joe Biden for a year or so. This being the case, there is already much speculation as to who might play Walz (former castmember Maya Rudolph has already agreed to return to play Kamala Harris). Here are the performers whose names are being bandied about:
    
    
    
    At the top left is Walz himself. Then, the top row, from left to right, is Steve Martin, Jim Gaffigan, Andy Richter and David Koechner. The bottom row, from left to right, is Brian Doyle-Murray, Al Franken, Patton Oswalt, Paul Giamatti and Drew Carey. Anything is possible, but SNL does tend to keep things in the family, and Franken is a former castmember and writer, while Martin is a frequent host who has also made many cameo appearances. Plus, both men currently live in New York. So, if the show goes with someone other than a current member of the cast (say, James Austin Johnson), then it will probably be Franken or Martin.

As we noted, no particular order.

Conclusion

It's been less than 24 hours, but the early returns are that the Harris campaign managed to conduct a pretty solid process despite the short timeframe, and that she passed her first major test as a candidate. On the whole, good things tend to happen when you put in a decent effort and you don't choose advisors whose primary qualification is nepotism. We'll see if the "good vibes" continue for Harris-Walz. (Z)