Dem
51
GOP
49
Recent national polls have Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in a statistical tie. A YouGov poll for CBS released Aug. 1 has Harris ahead 50% to 49%. This is much better than Joe Biden did at the end, but a statistical tie is still a statistical tie.
Bush's brain, Karl Rove, who knows a thing about elections and polling, recently made a prediction on Fox News. He said that Harris has the momentum that could leave her in the lead in September. He noted that of the most recent five national polls, Harris leads in three and Trump in two, and this is right after the Republican National Convention, when candidates normally get a bump. He also noted that Trump was leading Biden by 3 points, but he is ahead of Harris now by only 0.9 points, on average, and things are moving in the wrong direction for Trump. And when the Democratic National Convention happens, that will boost Harris even more. She is not well known and the wall-to-wall favorable publicity is sure to introduce her to many people with a lot of fanfare.
Rove also said that Trump is in a subordinate position now, something he hates. Harris is setting the tempo of the campaign, not him. All the news is about her. Worse yet, he can't find a nickname that any self-respecting third grader would, well, respect. "Lyin' Kamala Harris" might just not make it when "Lyin' Donald Trump" has been documented telling over 30,000 lies. (V)